002
FXUS61 KALY 302320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
720 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable afternoon high temperatures return tomorrow through
next week. Dry conditions are favored through midweek, with
increasing chances (40-60 percent) for precipitation towards
the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A low pressure system to our north continues to contribute to
increased cloudiness and low chances (less than 20 percent) for
a light rain shower across northern Hamilton and Herkimer
counties this afternoon. A lot of the shower activity has been
diminishing before reaching these counties, but a shower could
make it down this afternoon for very light precipitation. Breezy
conditions continue to be on track for this afternoon with wind
gusts between 20 and 30 mph across the Mohawk Valley into the
Greater Capital District and Berkshires. Winds decrease this
evening and shower activity ends as the low pressure system
heads northeast and surface high pressure builds in from the
south and west for tonight. This surface high pressure system
brings dry conditions and a gradual warm up to seasonable
temperatures for the rest of this Labor Day weekend into the
middle of next week for a pleasant beginning start to the week.
For Tuesday afternoon, latest National Blend of Models data
suggest less than a 20 percent chance for a rain shower across
the southern Adirondacks. Otherwise, dry conditions continue on
Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures tomorrow through
Wednesday range in the 70s, with a few valley locations reaching
into the low 80s.

With mostly clear skies through Monday morning, chilly overnight
low temperatures are in store for eastern New York and western
New England. Latest probabilistic guidance for overnight low
temperatures have greater than 75 percent chances to be less
than 40 degrees in higher terrain locations. For valley
locations, probabilities for less than 50 degrees are greater
than 75 percent. By Tuesday morning, low temperatures between 40
and 60 degrees are favored by latest ensemble forecast model
guidances for across eastern New York and western New England.

Unsettled weather conditions are favored to return Thursday
next week by latest ensemble forecast model guidances as a
strong upper level trough could move from the Great Lakes region
to the Northeast. At this forecast period, there is still a lot
of uncertainty in precipitation amounts and timing as forecast
models continue to fluctuate on the arrival timing of moisture
from the south and a low pressure system arrives from the Great
Lakes region bringing a cold front to eastern New York and
western New England. Latest probabilistic forecast model
guidances keep precipitation chances for a widespread rainfall
between 40 and 60 percent for Thursday into Friday. Continue to
monitor latest forecasts as we get closer in time for timing and
potential precipitation amounts associated with this weather
system. High temperature fall below normal Thursday and Friday
with highs in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...VFR conditions will persist through the
evening. Then fog development is likely once clouds dissipate
and winds become calm at KGFL/KPSF. Fog and associated IFR
conditions are expected to develop at KGFL first around or
shortly after 05z, then KPSF by around 08z. Fog should dissipate
fairly quickly by 12z Sunday. Then VFR conditions will return
and prevail through the rest of the period. Winds will initially
be west-northwest around 3-7 kt, becoming near calm overnight.
Winds on Sunday will be northerly around 4-7 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
DISCUSSION...Webb
AVIATION...JPV