000
FXUS61 KALY 291446
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1046 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 1046 am EDT...The cold front is near the Hudson River
Valley/I-87 corridor at this time with isolated to scattered
showers continuing from Hudson, NY and the Berkshires north and
east. Some retooling of the PoPs was done based on the radar
trends and the latest CAMS. The isolated thunderstorm threat was
removed, except across southern VT and the Berkshires into the
early pm due to little or no instability on the latest SPC
mesoanalysis. The 12Z KALY sounding has less than 300 J/kg of
MUCAPE. Temps will be mainly in the 60s to around 70F or so in
the Hudson River Valley for max temps. Pockets of upper 50s in
the southern Dacks.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues to move across eastern New York
and western New England into the afternoon with some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Behind the front, dry and
comfortable weather is expected for the Labor Day Holiday Weekend.
Temperatures will moderate closer to normal during next week with
continued dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 AM EDT...A closed off upper level low is located over
Ontario. The trough axis is currently located over the eastern
Great Lakes and it will be taking on a negative tilt by later
this morning as it pushes eastward. At the surface, a cold front
is located over western New York and it should be getting
closer to our western areas towards daybreak Friday.

Regional radar imagery shows several bands of light to moderate
showers starting to move into the western Adirondacks and
western Mohawk Valley. Based on radar trends and CAMs, these
showers will be spreading across the area for this morning,
mainly for areas along and north of the Mohawk Valley/I-90.
Areas south and east of the Capital Region may not see much
precip at all today and some spots may wind up staying
completely dry.

There hasn`t been any recent lightning activity, but some
lightning was noted last evening over Lake Ontario. Model
soundings suggest some small amounts of instability (mainly
elevated) could be present, so can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder through the morning hours. Total rainfall amounts look
fairly low due to the limited moisture in place and fast
movement of precip, and NBM amounts suggest mainly under a
quarter of an inch (locally a third to half inch over the
western Adirondacks).

The best chance of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be
through about midday or so. A few lingering showers or a rumble
may be across western New England through about mid-afternoon,
but most areas should be done with the majority of the precip by
lunchtime. While it will be fairly cloudy through the morning,
so breaks of sun are possible this afternoon as the frontal
boundary heads into New England. Highs look to range from the
mid 60s to mid 70s today, with the mildest temps in southeastern
areas.

Clearing will continue for tonight, with a mostly clear sky for
the overnight hours. With decreasing winds and few clouds in
place, good radiational cooling will allow for some chilly temps
overnight. All areas will be in the 40s, with some upper 30s
even possible across the highest terrain.

On Saturday, the closed low will be swinging into New England.
Despite the cyclonic flow, there shouldn`t be much additional
precip in our area (the exception being a few stray sprinkles
can`t be ruled out for the central Adirondacks). Otherwise, it
will be partly to mostly sunny and a little breezy during peak
mixing. Have leaned dewpoints down slightly from the NBM values
thanks to the good mixing with the cool temps in place aloft
with values in the 40s. Max temps will be very comfortable in
the 60s to mid 70s.

After another cool night on Saturday night, Sunday is looking to
be another comfortable day. The upper level low will be shifting
towards Atlantic Canada and surface high pressure will be nosing
closer from the Midwest. There should be less cloud compared to
Saturday and less wind with the increased subsidence in place.
Temps will be comfortable for outdoors activities once again,
with valley highs in the mid 70s (60s to low 70s for the higher
terrain). Cool, dry and clear weather will continue into Sunday
night once again as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will allow for dry and pleasant weather on Labor
day, with plenty of sun and highs well into the 70s once again.
A pocket of cooler temps aloft and lower heights will be in
place to start the week, but there should be rising heights and
warming temps aloft as the week progresses. Models suggest dry
weather will persist for much of the week. The next shortwave to
impact the region may not be until at least Thursday. For now,
have kept the forecast dry through Wednesday, with chance POPs
for showers returning by Thursday. Temps will be gradually
warming each day, with some low 80s returning for valley areas
by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z/Sat...An upper level disturbance and cold front
will cross the region today. Rain showers will continue this
morning with mainly VFR cigs and vsbys. Additional isolated to
widely scattered showers are then expected into the afternoon
before dry conditions return behind the front. Flight conditions
will be mixed VFR/MVFR midday into the early afternoon as cigs
may lower at some sites and have been addressed with TEMPO
groups. Wind will become southwesterly at 4-8 kt this morning
then west to northwesterly at 7-11 kt this afternoon decreasing
to 6 kt or less tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wasula
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Rathbun