457
FXUS61 KALY 041117
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
617 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Followed NBM for rainfall totals and no major changes to the
previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather is expected today.

2) A cold front will bring widespread beneficial rain showers
Thursday, followed by additional chances for rain Fri into Saturday
with the greatest probabilities south and east of the Capital
District.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
After a mild morning with lows in the upper 40s and mid 50s
today, unusually warm weather for late fall is expected this
afternoon. With the high pressure system having moved to our
east off the Atlantic coast, the upper level ridge currently
positioned over western NY will begin to slide east with the
ridge axis centered overhead our region by mid morning/early
afternoon. Southerly flow continues to help advect a moist
airmass into the region with PWAT`s gradually rising to near 1"
along with dewpoints increasing into the 50s by afternoon.
However with broad subsidence occurring over the region, any
lingering low stratus in the morning should clear up with
daybreak allowing for a mostly clear day across the region.
Current model guidance show 850 mb ensemble anomalies increasing
to +2 to +3 STDEV above normal and 850 mb temperatures ranging
from about 12 to 15 degrees C, which is unusually warm for this
time of year. High temperatures are expected to reach into the
lower to mid 70s in the valley regions and into the upper 60s in
the higher terrain areas today, potentially becoming close to
just a few degrees shy of today`s daily high records (the best
chance at KGFL and KPOU with daily high records of 73 and 74F
respectively). Probabilistic guidance has a high chance (70 to
90%) for much of the region to reach or exceed 70F and a medium
to high chance (50 to 80%) for reaching or exceeding 75F in
parts of the Mohawk and Schoharie valley. Normal daily highs for
this time of year across the region are typically in the low to
mid 50s. Breezier conditions are also expected with gusts up to
10-15 kts in the afternoon and evening, particularly in the N/S
oriented valleys and southerly facing slopes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Thursday morning, a low pressure system tracks from
the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec as its associated cold
front approaches from the west. Out ahead of the the cold front, a
band of showers enters the region, initially in the west/southwest
ADKs and western Mohawk Valley just before sunrise Thursday morning.
Long range deterministic and ensemble guidance then show the showers
overspreading the Capital Region and the rest of eastern NY by late
morning before lessening in coverage into the afternoon/evening as
it arrives into western New England. PWAT`s rise above the 75th
climatological normal to 1 to 1.5" Thursday, along with the NAEFS
ensemble anomalies increasing to +3 to +4 STDEV, however the better
upper level forcing still looks to be to the west of the Hudson
River Valley. Expected highest rainfall amounts Thursday to be in
the southwestern ADKs with the latest probabilistic NBM guidance
showing a 50 to 60% chance of 0.75" or greater in this area, while
areas along and south and east of I-90 generally receiving less than
0.50" (only 40 to 50% probability of 0.25" or greater). Most
locations will receive about a tenth of an inch of rain, which will
be the most widespread measurable rainfall in close to 20 days for
the region and therefore expected to bring an end to the recent dry
spell. Thursday`s highs will still run above normal in the  mid 60s
to around 70F in the valleys and in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s in
the higher terrain. There will also be more noticeable humidity
compared to lately with dewpoints increasing into the 60s. Breezy
conditions will continue with gusts 15-20 kts.

The low pressure system over the Great Lakes region closes off to
our west Friday night. As the positively tilted trough begins to
enter western NY Friday night into Saturday morning, additional rain
showers are expected along it`s frontal boundary. Latest model
guidance has the closed low tracking overhead Saturday, however
there is still some variability of the timing and track of this wave
of low pressure and front. The latest medium and long range models
have a heavier axis of rain showers in areas south and east of the
Capital Region Friday and Friday night with rainfall totals up to 1"
in these ares and lighter amounts in the Capital Region and areas
north and west. 24-hr NBM probabilistic guidance has a 30 to 40%
chance for 1" or greater and a 60 to 70% chance for 0.50" or greater
in parts of Dutchess, Litchfield, and Berkshire counties. There is a
40% or less chance for 0.50" or greater elsewhere. Much of the
greater totals look to be south and east of our region at this time.
Due to the recent dry spell, the rain will be beneficial and hydro
issues are not anticipated at this time. Lingering isolated showers
are possible into Saturday. Temps trend near to slightly below
normal for the close of the weekend. The cooler and unsettled
weather looks to continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flying conditions are have been VFR this morning with just some
thin high cirrus clouds in place. Based on satellite trends,
these cirrus clouds will be departing off to the east this
morning, allowing for sunny skies through the day today, with
continued VFR conditions. Light southerly winds will be around 5
kts today.

Southerly winds around 5 kts will continue into tonight, with
few-sct high level cirrus clouds moving across the region this
evening. These clouds will become bkn-ovc by the late night
hours. Flying conditions look to be VFR through tonight as
increasing cloud cover and the light breeze ahead of the next
system should help prevent much fog from forming. Some rain
showers are expected after daybreak on Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...27