556
FXUS61 KALY 241703
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1203 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the region will bring gradual
clearing today with slightly milder temperatures. An approaching
low pressure system will bring increasing clouds Tuesday with
rain developing in the afternoon. Showers will continue
Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front, followed by colder
and blustery conditions with some lake effect snow showers for
Thanksgiving Day and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 AM EST, scattered rain showers in valleys, and snow
showers across higher elevations will decrease in coverage by
daybreak as final shortwave tracks across northern portions of
region. Some lingering snow showers may persist through mid
morning across higher terrain of southern VT, otherwise mainly
dry during the daylight hours today. Clouds may hang tough
through midday as moisture remains trapped beneath lowering
subsidence inversion, however clearing should increase during
this afternoon. High temps should reach 40-45 in most valley
areas and 35-40 across higher elevations.

Clear skies this evening, followed by increasing clouds after
midnight. Brief period of favorable radiational cooling should
allow temps to drop rapidly after sunset, with min temps likely
occurring around midnight before holding steady or rising
thereafter. Min temps mainly in the 20s, though some upper teens
could occur across portions of the southern Adirondacks and Lake
George region.

Thickening clouds Tuesday, with rain developing from southwest
to northeast in the afternoon/early evening hours. Periods of
light to moderate rain continues Tuesday night. High temps
Tuesday mainly in the 40s, with Tuesday night lows in the
mid/upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing confidence for strong winds Thursday-Friday with
  30-80% chance for wind gusts exceeding 45 mph within the
  Mohawk Valley/Capital Region, northern Taconics and
  Berkshires.

- Moderate confidence for significant lake effect snowfall
  affecting the southwest Adirondacks Thursday through Saturday
  morning, with 72-hour probs for >7" snowfall ending 7 PM
  Saturday at 50-65% across northern Herkimer County.

Cold front tracks through the region late Wednesday afternoon or
night, possibly accompanied by low topped line of showers with
gusty winds. In the wake of the front, progressively colder air
spreads into the region, with increasing west winds and
developing lake effect snow showers. Lake effect band may
eventually extend well inland, affecting northern Herkimer
County Thursday and Thursday night, before gradually pivoting
southward Friday and contracting in inland extent. Latest 01Z/24
NBM 72-hour probs ending 7 PM EST Sat for >7" snowfall are
50-65% across northern Herkimer County, with similar probs for
>4" as high as 50-60% extending into southern Herkimer/NW Fulton
and western Hamilton Co. Snowbands could occasionally extend
into portions of the Mohawk Valley and Hudson River Valley
mainly from Albany northward late Thursday into Friday.

Strong winds will also develop, especially Friday as 01Z/24 NBM
24-hour probs ending 1 AM EST Saturday for max wind gusts >45
mph at 30-80% within the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region, northern
Taconics and Berkshires, with highest probs across the
Berkshires. So, high confidence in west/northwest winds gusting
35-45 mph in these areas, with some potential for even stronger
gusts on Friday.

High pressure then builds in for Saturday-Sunday with decreasing
winds and areal extent lake effect snow showers. As for
temperatures, warm Wednesday ahead of the front with highs
reaching the 50s for many areas. Cooler for Thursday with highs
in the 20s/30s across higher elevations and lower 40s in
valleys. For Friday through Sunday, max temps only reaching the
20s/lower 30s across higher elevations, and mid 30s to lower 40s
in valley areas. Overnight lows in the 20s and lower/mid 30s
Wednesday night, cooling to the teens and 20s by Friday/Saturday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions as of 12:00 PM EST,
except at PSF where upslope clouds are leading to MVFR cigs.
Some brief MVFR cigs at ALB should dissipate by the start of the
18z TAF period. Still low confidence on how long the MVFR cigs
linger at PSF, but the trend should be for clouds to scatter out
as we get through the afternoon and especially towards sunset.
For all other terminals, VFR conditions expected this afternoon
with SCT to occasionally BKN cigs 3500-4500 ft. Tonight, skies
become BKN to OVC at 10 kft - 15 kft, continuing through end end
of the TAF period tomorrow. There is a low chance for some
patchy fog/mist at GFL or PSF tonight if there are enough breaks
in the high clouds, but confidence is too low to mention in the
TAFs at this time. Otherwise, W/NW winds at 5-10 kt with gusts
to 15-20 kt (mainly at ALB/PSF) trend to light and variable
after sunset through tonight. Winds then turn to the S/SE and
increase to 5-10 kt again tomorrow by mid-morning, with some
gusts of 15-20 kt possible at ALB/PSF. Beyond the end of the TAF
period, widespread light rain is expected tomorrow evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 33 kts. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 38 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ032-038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...24
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...35