237
FXUS61 KALY 192357
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
757 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
High temperatures for Sunday have been lowered by a few degrees to
account for cooler model solutions due to widespread rain during the
daytime. Outside of continuing to monitor potential for a coastal
storm late in the forecast period, no significant changes were made
to the forecast in this update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread light to moderate rain remains on track for the area
Sunday, with no flood concerns expected.

2) A coastal storm will track near the East Coast late next week,
but confidence remains low on whether we will see impacts from this
system at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
After a gorgeous day which will feature a mix of
sun and clouds with highs in the 50s/60s, our weather will turn
active across eastern New York and western New England to close out
the weekend.

To our south, a stalled frontal boundary is located from central
Iowa into the southern Ohio River Valley and Carolinas. As southerly
flow strengthens tonight with the formation of a surface low across
the mid-Mississippi River Valley, this boundary will quickly move
north as a warm front into the Mid-Atlantic, aided by a 30-40 kt 925-
850 hPa LLJ. This jet will strengthen moisture transport into the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, with PWATs climbing to
around 1.50-1.75" in these area per the NBM. The combination of
this moisture and lift provided by the front and trailing
surface low will result in a light to moderate stratiform rain
for the region for much of the daytime, with activity expected
to wane by evening as the low departs off the coast of Cape Cod.
Expected rainfall hasn`t deviated much from the previous
forecast, with amounts ranging from about half an inch across
the western ADKs, to around 0.75-1.5" along and south of the
Interstate 90 corridor. Locally higher amounts will be possible
across the higher terrain of the Catskills and the Interstate 84
corridor. Daytime temperatures will struggle to hit 60 across
the high terrain and areas north of Interstate 90, though low to
mid 60s are expected for valley locations south of the Albany
metro.

Thinking regarding hydro concerns remains unchanged from the
previous AFD. Given the lack of available instability, stratiform
nature of the rain and high FFG values, flash flooding is not
expected Sunday outside of nuisance ponding of water in low-lying,
urban, and poor drainage areas. This rain will actually be
beneficial for most, especially across the Mid Hudson Valley,
western New England and Mohawk Valley where dry conditions have
prevailed with below normal precipitation in the last 1-2 months.
River flooding probabilities are also low with HEFS and National
Water Model ensembles maintaining river level forecasts below action
stage.

High pressure will follow behind the low and a cold front for early
next week, which will result in a pleasant, dry start to Fall across
the region. There do remain some low chances (10-30%) of rain
showers mainly across Ulster and Dutchess counties early Tuesday
with a passing surface low across the Ohio River Valley, but most
will remain dry. Temperatures each day will range from highs in the
50s (terrain) to 60s (valleys) and lows in the 30s (terrain) to 40s
(valleys).


KEY MESSAGE 2...
Latest guidance continues to hint at potential for
a coastal system to impact the region late in the forecast period.
The GFS remains the most aggressive in bringing a strong upper level
trough into the Appalachians and Virginia coast, with development
into a cutoff low off the Mid-Atlantic coast early Friday. Given
high levels of moisture expected to accompany the system, we will
continue to monitor its placement and trends in the coming
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals with high-level clouds continuously streaming into the
region ahead of an incoming low pressure system. Throughout the
night, high-level ceilings will begin to lower as low-level
moisture increases, though remain well within VFR thresholds
into the early morning. Light showers are expected to precede
the filling in of a stratiform rain shield by between 09-14z.
Conditions here will likely remain within low VFR thresholds as
low-level dry air will take some time to be overcome. However,
by 11-14z, steady light rain will lower ceilings and visibility
into MVFR thresholds. Embedded moderate rainfall rates could
even take conditions at some sites into IFR thresholds. This
looks most likely at POU where the heavies axis of rainfall is
expected to set up, so added a TEMPO to account for this
potential between 13-17z. Once the rain shield begins to depart
to our east towards the end of the period, light showers will
linger through the end of the TAF period with primarily MVFR
conditions remaining steady. Winds throughout the period will be
light, under 10 kt sustained, and prevailing largely out of the
northeast.


Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...17
AVIATION...12