965
FXUS61 KALY 160510
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast of New England will continue
to allow for dry weather for today, with a partly to mostly cloudy
sky and seasonable temperatures.  An approaching upper level
disturbance will allow for some showers on Tuesday, before
temperatures moderate above normal for Wednesday into Thursday.
Along with the warm and humid air mass will be the potential for
some thunderstorms on both Wednesday and Thursday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 110 AM EDT...Surface high pressure remains anchored just
northeast of the region near the coast of eastern New England.
Meanwhile, a stationary front remains draped south of the region
over the mid Atlantic States. Without any forcing for precip
nearby, it looks to stay dry through the rest of the overnight
hours.

IR satellite imagery shows a band of mid level clouds over
southern areas, but these clouds have been sinking southward
over the past few hours. Some additional lower clouds are still
ongoing in some areas, especially for the high terrain. For
areas that see clearing, some patchy fog may develop during the
late night hours. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy for the rest of the overnight with lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A similar weather pattern from Sunday will continue on Monday
with surface high pressure off the New England coast. More
breaks of sun are expected which will allow temperatures to rise
a few degrees higher than on Sunday (upper 60s to upper 70s). A
few isolated to widely scattered showers could develop once
again during the afternoon hours, especially across the
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley.

A pair of upper level shortwaves will pass across the region
within the southwesterly flow aloft late Monday night through
Tuesday night. Increasing warm air advection and isentropic
lift will result in a period of rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Little if any instability will result in a very low
probability for thunder. The clouds and rainfall will result in
a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A series of upper level shortwaves will continue to track across
the region on Wednesday ahead of a main upper level trough on
Thursday. A warm front is also progged to lift northward across
the region on Wednesday. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are anticipated on Wednesday, mainly early in the
day, as forcing weakens during the afternoon. Wednesday will
become warmer and more humid than recent days with highs
reaching the 80s in most valley areas with upper 70s across the
higher elevations.

Thursday is expected to be the warmest and most active day of
the week ahead of the main upper level trough and being within
the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system and cold
front from the west. High temperatures will rise in the mid-80s
to lower 90s in valley areas with mid to upper 70s across the
Adirondacks. Dewpoints rising into the mid-60s to lower 70s will
result in heat index (or feels-like temperatures) reaching the
low to mid-90s in some valley areas, near heat advisory
criteria. Showers and thunderstorms will likely cross the region
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some strong to severe
thunderstorms could accompany the front, especially if it
crosses at the time of peak heating. Timing of the front and
thunderstorms remains uncertain and will be monitored in the
coming days.

The surface cold front crosses the region by Friday bringing in
a cooler and less humid air mass. The upper level trough may
linger on Friday resulting in a few showers. By next weekend, an
additional upper level shortwave may cross the region ahead of
a developing upper level ridge across the central CONUS bringing
additional chances for some showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures look to trend back above normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...VFR conditions are currently in place across
the region early this morning with a mix of scattered low clouds
with high overcast, as weak high pressure is just off the New
England coast. Heading through the morning, the low stratus
currently across the Lower Hudson Valley into southern New England
will slowly begin to build back north with weak return flow in
place, bringing MVFR ceilings back into the vicinity of KPOU and
continuing north through the morning. Confidence on how quickly this
stratus will advance north is low, with latest guidance backing off
quite a bit from previous forecast. As a result, have delayed onset
of lower ceilings at KALB/KPSF/KGFL in this TAF later into the
period, though MVFR/IFR conditions remain expected through the TAF
cycle. A low chance of MVFR visibilities with drizzle remains as
well at KPOU/KPSF, and have left mention of the PROB30 groups. Winds
will be calm to south/southeast at 5 KT or less tonight. Expect
northeast to southeast winds 4-8 KT in the late morning through the
afternoon on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Speck