342
FXUS61 KALY 011021
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
621 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.UPDATE...
Temperatures have cooled into the upper 30s to lower 40s across
portions of the southern Adirondacks, and have reflected this in
updated grids along with increased coverage of fog within some
river valleys.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mainly fair weather and seasonably warm
temperatures through midweek. An approaching cold front will
bring increasing chances for showers Thursday into Friday, along
with cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 AM EDT, clear skies/light winds have allowed temps to
drop into the mid/upper 40s across the southern Adirondacks,
with 50s elsewhere. Temps should fall into the lower 40s by
daybreak across portions of the southern Adirondacks, southern
VT and upper Hudson Valley, with mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere.
Patchy fog will also develop within some river valleys.

Today will feature more clouds than Sunday as an upper level low
over the mid Atlantic states drifts northward. High/mid level
clouds will increase from the south/southeast through the day,
with skies becoming mostly cloudy at times this afternoon.
Despite the clouds, fairly deep mixing should allow temps to
reach 75-80 within valley areas and upper 60s to mid 70s across
higher elevations.

High/mid level clouds should gradually decrease from southeast
to northwest tonight. It should be slightly milder than recent
nights with lows in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s. Patchy fog
will be possible after midnight, particularly areas adjacent to
bodies of water.

Upper level low and cold pocket will drift northward across the
region Tuesday. Moisture will remain quite limited, however
across far northern Herkimer/Hamilton Counties, there could be
just enough moisture/shallow instability for isolated showers to
develop Tuesday afternoon, where slight chance to low chance
(20-30%) PoPs are indicated. Dry weather then returns for
Wednesday. High temperatures should reach the upper 70s to
around 80 in valley areas, and 70-75 for higher terrain areas
each day, with overnight lows Tuesday/Wednesday nights in the
upper 40s to mid/upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold front approaches from the west late Thursday into Friday
with increasing chances for showers and some thunderstorms.
Although there remains a good chance for at least some rain,
there remains uncertainty on heavier rainfall amounts as front
may pass through fairly quickly, and deeper moisture may remain
farther east of the region rather than become absorbed into the
incoming front. Latest 24-hour NBM Probs for >0.50" ending 8 PM
Friday are 50-70%, greatest west of I-87, with similar Probs for
>1" 30-40%, again greatest west of I-87. Best chance for
showers/storms looks to be Thursday night into Friday morning
based on current timing of front.

Secondary front and associated upper level disturbances will
keep some chances for showers/thunderstorms into Saturday before
fair weather returns by Sunday.

Warm and breezy Thursday with high temps reaching 75-80,
gradually cooling to the mid 60s to mid 70s Friday/Saturday, and
lower 60s to lower 70s by Sunday. Overnight lows in the mid 50s
to lower 60s Thursday night, cooling to the 40s/50s by
Friday/Saturday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Patchy fog that developed at GFL/PSF early
this morning should dissipate by the start of the 12z TAF period,
with prevailing VFR conditions through the day today and well into
tonight. Will see increasing mid and high clouds this afternoon, and
clouds then diminish from south to north overnight. Once these
clouds depart, patchy is expected to develop once again. Have
indicated the chance for fog in the TAFs, but will need to refine
timing and vsby/cig restrictions with subsequent TAF issuances.
Winds will be light and variable to start the TAF period, then
increase to around 5 kt from the N/NW this morning, veering to the
E/NE this afternoon. Winds become light and variable again after
sunset this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KL
SYNOPSIS...KL/Webb
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Main