369
FXUS61 KALY 301912
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
312 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
There is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall
for eastern New York Sunday into early Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Residual flooding of some stream and roads continues into
this evening for southern portions of the Capital District and
northern portions of the mid Hudson Valley.

2) Showers and thunderstorms return Sunday afternoon into
Monday. There is potential for locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding in some areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Most of the Flood Warnings have been allowed to expire. There
is one last Flood Warning in effect for residual flooding/road
closures in SE Albany, SW Rensselaer, NE Greene and NW/central
Columbia counties through 630 PM. Water levels will continue to
gradually recede. No additional river flooding is anticipated.
Scattered showers this afternoon into this evening will be
generally light and will not lead to any additional flooding.
There may be a few brief/isolated downpours, but not widespread
enough to cause any hydro concerns. The showers should gradually
dissipate tonight as the storm system finally pulls farther
away.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Other than an isolated/brief shower or T-storm north/east of
Albany on Friday, dry conditions are expected to persist through
Sunday morning as high pressure moves across the area. The next
chance for more widespread showers/T-storms arrives Sunday
afternoon into Monday as a cold front and upper level trough
move east across our area, associated with a cyclone tracking NE
across the St. Lawrence Valley. Most of the global/AI guidance
have more of a progressive northern stream system, as the upper
trough splits with the southern piece tracking well south of our
area. This is the most likely scenario at this time. While the
system is expected to be progressive, PWAT anomalies increase
to +1 to +2 STDEV along with at least some modest instability.
So convective elements will likely be embedded in any areas of
showers Sun P.M. into Mon. Areas where there are any persistent
or repeated downpours could see renewed flooding, especially in
locations that received heavy rainfall from this past storm.
NBM probabilities for > 1.00" of rain are around 30-60%
north/west of Albany, however embedded convection could result
in 1-2+" in some spots. Also, soils will still be mostly
saturated from the extreme rainfall this week so it won`t take
much to result in flash flooding in some areas. Timing has
shifted slower to Sunday night, which could limit convection, so
WPC has scaled back to a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for
eastern New York with the afternoon update. Will continue to
monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z/Fri...Surface and upper level low pressure systems
continue to slowly drift eastward toward the New England coast
during the upcoming TAF period. These features will remain close
enough to bring isolated to scattered showers this afternoon
which can briefly reduce vsbys to MVFR at times. Otherwise,
mixed MVFR/VFR cigs are expected this afternoon with any IFR
cigs at KPOU lifting shortly after 18z/Thu. Clouds will decrease
tonight with showers ending which will increase the potential
for widespread fog, some dense, at all sites. Any fog lifts
after 12z/Fri with the return to VFR conditions. Northerly winds
around 10 kt will become light to calm tonight, then
northwesterly at 4-8 kt on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...33