610
FXUS61 KALY 160229
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1029 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the east of the area will maintain mostly dry
conditions tonight through Monday. An upper level disturbance
will bring periods of rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Warmer and more humid weather is expected Wednesday into
Thursday along with showers and some thunderstorms, especially
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Update as of 1029 pm EDT...Ongoing forecast is in good shape
with some minor changes to skycover based on the GOES IR/low
scan satellite imagery with high clouds over most of the region
with some stratocumulus and a few isolated showers/sprinkles
moving across the southern Dacks, Lake George Region and
southern VT from a weak disturbance in the west/northwest flow
aloft, as high pressure will remain near the Gulf of Maine. Some
lower stratus continues near the Capital Region. Expect some
patchy fog and widespread stratus to form overnight with lows in
the 50s with some upper 40s over the mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A similar weather pattern from Sunday will continue on Monday
with surface high pressure off the New England coast. More
breaks of sun are expected which will allow temperatures to rise
a few degrees higher than on Sunday (upper 60s to upper 70s). A
few isolated to widely scattered showers could develop once
again during the afternoon hours, especially across the
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley.

A pair of upper level shortwaves will pass across the region
within the southwesterly flow aloft late Monday night through
Tuesday night. Increasing warm air advection and isentropic
lift will result in a period of rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Little if any instability will result in a very low
probability for thunder. The clouds and rainfall will result in
a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A series of upper level shortwaves will continue to track across
the region on Wednesday ahead of a main upper level trough on
Thursday. A warm front is also progged to lift northward across
the region on Wednesday. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are anticipated on Wednesday, mainly early in the
day, as forcing weakens during the afternoon. Wednesday will
become warmer and more humid than recent days with highs
reaching the 80s in most valley areas with upper 70s across the
higher elevations.

Thursday is expected to be the warmest and most active day of
the week ahead of the main upper level trough and being within
the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system and cold
front from the west. High temperatures will rise in the mid-80s
to lower 90s in valley areas with mid to upper 70s across the
Adirondacks. Dewpoints rising into the mid-60s to lower 70s will
result in heat index (or feels-like temperatures) reaching the
low to mid-90s in some valley areas, near heat advisory
criteria. Showers and thunderstorms will likely cross the region
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some strong to severe
thunderstorms could accompany the front, especially if it
crosses at the time of peak heating. Timing of the front and
thunderstorms remains uncertain and will be monitored in the
coming days.

The surface cold front crosses the region by Friday bringing in
a cooler and less humid air mass. The upper level trough may
linger on Friday resulting in a few showers. By next weekend, an
additional upper level shortwave may cross the region ahead of
a developing upper level ridge across the central CONUS bringing
additional chances for some showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures look to trend back above normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are in place late this afternoon at
KGFL/KALB/KPSF with some mid level and high clouds and an
overcast deck around 4 kft AGL at KPSF. Further south, some
MVFR stratus continue at KPOU at about 2.5 kft AGL. The return
flow from high pressure off the New England Coast should allow
for some widespread MVFR stratus to form between 04Z-08Z/Mon.
KGFL may have a brief period of radiational mist around 3SM
prior 07Z/Mon. The MVFR stratus will likely lower to 1-2.5 kft
AGL at all the TAF sites between 08Z-12Z/Mon with a chance for
IFR stratus at KPSF and KPOU with some light drizzle. We
included IFR stratus at KPSF after 12Z/MON. The cigs will likely
rise back to low VFR levels at KGFL/KALB between 16Z-19Z/Mon
with some lingering MVFR stratus throughout the afternoon at
KPSF/KPOU with some PROB30`s used for spotty showers/drizzle.

The winds will be calm to south/southeast at 5 KT or less
tonight. Expect northeast to southeast winds 4-8 KT in the late
morning through the afternoon on Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Wasula