787
FXUS61 KALY 061822
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
222 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Isolated to scattered showers across western New England were
extended in the forecast into the mid to afternoon with the upper
low lingering downstream. Lowered min temps from the NBM with
radiative cooling environments the next few nights and expanded
patchy mist/fog.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Tranquil weather with near to slightly below normal
temps expected tonight through Tuesday.

2) Chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms increase
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, but severe weather and/or
flooding is not likely at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Pesky isolated-scattered instability showers
continue mainly over the southern Taconics and western New
England associated with short-wave energy rotating around the
H500 closed low over Nova Scotia/New Brunswick will diminish
late this afternoon. High pressure will be building in from the
Great Lakes Region and southeast Ontario with clearing skies and
light to calm winds. The ideal radiational cooling conditions
will allow for patchy fog formation especially north/northwest
of Albany with cool and pleasant temps. We went about 2-4
degrees below the NBM with lows in the 40s to around 50F with
some upper 30s and lower 40s over the southern Dacks. The strong
subsidence from the ridging at the sfc and aloft will yield
mostly sunny skies and pleasant humidity levels for Labor Day
with max temps near to slightly below normal with mid 60s to
lower 70s over the higher terrain and mid and upper 70s in the
valleys.

The sfc anticyclone shifts south/southeast over the NY-PA border
southward to the mid Atlantic States. A weak cold front will be
dropping southward from the St Lawrence River Valley Mon night-
Tue morning. Some high clouds will increase for the northern
zones late, but it still looks like a decent radiative cooling
environment with light to calm winds, dry low-levels and mostly
clear conditions. Lows were favored with a MAV/NBM blend with
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Some patchy to localized areas
of mist/fog will be possible in the sheltered and major river
valleys. Tuesday looks like another dry and pleasant day with
partly sunny conditions with slightly warmer max temps with mid
70s to around 80F across the valleys and hilltowns, and slightly
cooler readings over the mtns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next chance of a widespread rainfall will be
Wed-Thu across eastern NY and western New England, as a pre-
frontal sfc trough ahead of a cold front increases clouds Tue
night into Wed with a low-level southwesterly jet increasing
with PWAT rising about 1-2 STDEVs above normal Wed pm based on
the latest NAEFS. Latest NBM supports PoPs in the chance to
likely range from the Capital Region and southern VT north and
west Wed pm. The best forcing /moisture convergence on the
medium guidance/ensembles is across the west-central Mohawk
Valley and southern Dacks Wed pm. Little to no instability is
present with weak mid-level lapse rates across most of the
region with small amounts of MUCAPE over the Adirondacks. We
kept a slight chance of thunder. Based on the timing and the
lack of instability, we are not expecting severe t-storms Wed
pm into Thu at this time. Some of the latest NCAR AI/machine
learning also support this. The latest 24-hr NBM probabilities
for > 0.50" of rain ending 12Z/Thu are in the 50-70% range
across the w-central Mohawk Valley and the south/southwest
Adirondacks. The latest WPC ERO for Day 4 has a Marginal Risk
for portions of the west/southwest Adirondacks, but this
rainfall should be beneficial with the abnormally dry conditions
in this area. In the wake of the front on Thu, temps trend more
seasonal to slightly cooler than normal with dry weather to
close the week and open next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail at the
terminals this afternoon with a few isolated to widely scattered
showers tracking north to south in the higher terrain and hill
town areas of western New England. PSF should mainly stay dry
but given proximity to nearby showers, maintained VCSH through
sunset. Then, skies quickly clear shortly after sunset allowing
the atmosphere to decouple. While drier air will advect into
eastern NY and western New England tonight, there is low to
medium confidence that favorable radiational cooling conditions
will support IFR vis from fog/mist mainly at GFL. While
confidence in patchy fog at PSF is lower, still show a TEMPO
from 08 - 12 UTC given potential for any brief daytime showers
that can moisten low-levels ahead of radiational cooling. VFR
conditions quickly return shortly after sunrise at all terminals
through the end of the TAF period as subsidence from high
pressure maintains control. Slightly breezy northerly winds
through 22 UTC today will be sustained 5-12kts with gusts up to
20kts. Then, winds turn light/variable tonight quickly after
sunset with northwesterly winds increasing by 14-16 UTC Monday
sustained 5-12kts gusts 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...31