782
FXUS61 KALY 281834
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
234 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dewpoints were lowered this afternoon into early this evening, and
some patchy mist/fog was added near the upper Hudson Valley/Lake
George Region Thu morning.

Winds/wind gusts were slightly increased Fri in the wake of the
cold frontal passage Thu night.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly dry weather will continue through this weekend into
early next week with the only chance for some light showers on
Thu night, especially for areas north and west of Albany.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure continues to slowly shift east of New
England this afternoon.  The mid and upper level ridge over the
Northeast continues to flattens tonight.  The mid level flow becomes
zonal, as a northern stream short-wave and a cold front
approach from southeast Ontario and the eastern Great Lakes
Region for Thu-Thu night. Some mid and high clouds that moved
in today will begin to thin tonight. A south/southwest flow of
milder air will occur ahead of the approaching front. The winds
may decouple over the Upper Hudson Valley/Lake George Region
with a partial clearing for some patchy fog to develop.
Otherwise, some scattered lower stratus may form with low temps
milder than previous nights in the mid 30s to lower 40s. In the
weak warm sector with the south/southwest flow tomorrow, temps
moderate above normal by 10 degrees or so with mid and upper 60s
in the valleys (isolated 70F readings) and upper 50s to lower
60s over the mtns. Dewpoints increased into the 40s to lower
50s. The better forcing and low-level convergence with the cold
front does not arrive until Thu evening. The latest NBM
guidance indicates the highest probabilities (30-60%) > 0.10" of
rainfall over the next 24 hrs ending 8 pm Fri will be for
western Adirondacks. Lighter amounts are possible of a few
hundredths into the western Mohawk Valley, western Capital
Region, northern Catskills, Helderbergs and southern Greens,
where slight chance PoPs were expanded. Some sprinkles are
possible further south and east. Cold advection occurs Fri
morning in the wake of the front with lows in the 40s to lower
50s for most of the region.

Friday features cooler and drier weather with breezy conditions.
Better mixing in the wake of the front will allow for west-northwest
winds 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-30 mph.  The strongest gusts will
likely be over the northern Catskills, within the Mohawk Valley
into the Greater Capital Region, northern Taconics and the
Berkshires. We blended the NBM90 wind/wind gust with the
previous forecast. Temps fall back to seasonal levels, except
slightly above normal from Albany south and east. The winds will
begin to subside Fri night, as another Canadian surface
anticyclone builds in from Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region
over NY and PA. Lows will be on the chilly side in the 20s to
30s. Many locations will be close to two weeks without
measurable rainfall by Friday. Halloween looks dry and
seasonably warm with the sfc high in control, as temps may
moderate slightly above normal to open November and continue
into early next week. There continues to be a lot of
spread and uncertainty in the medium deterministic/ensembles/NBM
guidance, when the next widespread chance of rainfall occurs
next week, which nows looks to be trending towards the mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18z/Thursday...Current GOES satellite imagery shows some
thin mid level and thick high level clouds generally above 7,000 ft
AGL passing through this afternoon and evening with VFR conditions
expected to prevail through the TAF period. With the high pressure
moving off the Atlantic coast, periods of clearing are expected
tonight, however southerly flow will allow for some moisture to
filter in. There may be enough moisture for low level stratus and/or
fog to develop at some of the sites tonight into the early hours
tomorrow morning. Confidence remains low at this time but will
increase with the next TAF cycle. Southerly winds with speeds 5-10
kt will continue through the evening becoming calm overnight into
tomorrow. Winds pick back up from the southwest with speeds 5-10 kt
tomorrow mid morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night to Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53