283
FXUS61 KALY 301044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
644 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gradually building over the region will bring
fair and pleasant weather through the Labor Day Holiday Weekend.
Mainly dry weather continues on Tuesday and Wednesday before
the next chance for a more widespread rainfall arrives Thursday
and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A vertically staked low pressure system, centered across
southern Quebec this morning, will slowly drift eastward through
the day. High pressure will then slowly build eastward from the
Great Lakes. The day will start off mostly sunny, but will
become partly to mostly cloudy for most as the day progresses as
daytime heating combined with the cold pool aloft increases
instability driven clouds. Despite these clouds, most areas
will remain dry. The exception would be across the Adirondacks,
closer to the upper low, where a few light showers or sprinkles
could develop during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, it will be
a seasonably cool day with highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s.
There will also be a west to northwesterly breeze with gusts
reaching 20-25 mph at times, especially from the Mohawk Valley
into the Capital District and Berkshires.

The high continues to build overhead tonight and remains
directly overhead through Monday, Labor Day. A Rex Block even
tries to develop by Monday with an upper high to our north and
upper low just to our south. Dry weather is expected tonight
through Monday under a mostly clear sky. Highs Sunday and
Monday will reach the 70s to around 80, right around seasonable
normals with lows each night in the 40s and 50s.

As surface high pressure remains overhead Tuesday and Wednesday,
the Rex Block looks to break down as the upper low to the south
begins to drift northward over our region Tuesday then eastward
on Wednesday. Daytime heating combined with the developing cold
pool aloft will increase instability for additional clouds and
the potential for some isolated rain showers on Tuesday, mainly
across the higher elevations. Most areas become dry again by
Wednesday. High temperatures both days will continue to run
near to slightly above normal with values in the lower 70s to
lower 80s.

The next best widespread rainfall potential occurs later next week
as a potent upper level low and surface cold front approach
from the west. In addition, an upper level shortwave may round
the base of the longwave trough and develop and track a low
pressure system up or off the coast. How these features
interact with each other and track will determine when and how
much rainfall occurs. With uncertainty of track and timing, have
maintained keeping PoPs in the chance range (35 to 50%) until
confidence in these features increases. With increasingly dry
weather, any rainfall from this system will be beneficial. High
temperatures later next week will be in the 60s and 70s with
Friday the cooler day of the two.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday, mainly VFR conditions are expected with
patchy clouds with bases of 5000-7000 FT AGL late this morning
through mid afternoon. The exception will be some patchy
MVFR Cigs at KPSF through 13Z/Sat, and additional patchy
fog/low clouds after 04Z/Sun with intermittent IFR/LIFR
conditions possible at KGFL and KPSF. Winds will be southwest to
west at 4-8 KT through mid morning, then west to northwest and
increasing to 8-12 KT with some gusts up to 20-25 KT possible by
late morning, especially at KALB and KPSF. West winds will
decrease to 4-8 KT around and after sunset, and less than 4 KT
after midnight.

Outlook...

Sunday to Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
DISCUSSION...Rathbun
AVIATION...KL