089
FXUS61 KALY 021027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
627 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 627 AM EDT...Made some minor adjustments to hourly
temperatures based on obs and added patchy to fog to locations
based on satellite imagery early this morning. Cool start to the
day with temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place across the region through at
least the middle of next week, providing dry conditions along
with generally comfortable humidity levels. After one more
relatively cool day today, the air mass will warm Sunday into
early next week, with temperatures warming back to above normal
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 147 AM EDT...Other than patchy fog in some spots,
tranquil and cool conditions will occur early this morning.
Surface high pressure will be in place today, with a northwest
flow regime aloft. 850 mb temperature anomalies still look to be
around -1 to -2 STDEV today, so high temperatures will be
slightly below normal. Highs expected to reach the upper 70s in
most valley locations with a light northerly breeze.

Clear skies and light winds tonight will lead to good
radiational cooling conditions. While it likely won`t be quite
as cool as this morning, lows should range from the upper 40s to
mid 50s which are solidly below normal for early August.

The air mass will start to modify on Sunday, as 850 mb
temperature anomalies become neutral. So with abundant sunshine
highs expected to reach normal levels Sun afternoon, even with
the cool start to the day. Humidity levels will remain
comfortable, with dewpoints mainly in the 50s. Dry conditions
continue with persistent high pressure in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Temperatures warming back to above normal levels early next
  week.

Discussion:

With regards to the large scale pattern, surface high pressure
is forecast to remain in place across the Northeast CONUS
through the period with rising heights aloft. By Tue, 500 mb
height anomalies are forecast to reach +1 to +2 STDEV. This will
generally result in slightly above normal temperatures,
although humidity levels do not appear to be oppressive with
this pattern.

A weakening cold front approaching from SE Canada late Mon into
early Tue is expected to wash out as it tries to push south and
encounters ridging. Dewpoints are forecast to rise next week,
but still look to only reach the lower to mid 60s. This results
in feels- like temperatures reaching the lower 90s or cooler. So
Heat Advisories are not anticipated at this time.

With upper ridging established through the period, there is no
discernible forcing for appreciable rain chances. Outside of an
isolated diurnally driven shower/T-storm, it will remain dry
across much of the area through Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...VFR conditions hold steady across all
terminals this morning, though some light fog has been
previously noted by KPSF and KPOU. With some low-level moisture
trapped beneath our subsidence inversion, this certainly makes
sense. However, with ample sunlight from predominantly clear
skies, mixing is already taking place and has, at least for now,
eroded any fog that developed at these sites. Included 1-hour
TEMPOs at KPSF and KPOU, however, to account for the bouncing
conditions over the last hour or so in case MVFR conditions area
reached. But after 13z, all terminals should return to VFR
conditions and remain in this fashion through the remainder of
the 12z TAF period with light, variable winds under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night to Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPV
SYNOPSIS...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Gant