513
FXUS61 KALY 020616
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
216 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Above normal temperatures are expected today before a cold
front and rain showers track across the region from northwest to
southeast.

2) A mostly dry and seasonable weekend is expected. Thereafter,
a strong cold front brings breezy and cooler weather for early
next week along with the potential for valley frost at night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

It will be a mild start to the day with temperatures in the 60s
for most areas as warm air advection continues ahead of an
approaching cold front. Partial sunshine for most areas will
allow for temperatures to warm quickly after sunrise prior to
the arrival of the front and rain showers. Most areas outside of
the Adirondacks will rise into the 70s except lower 80s are
likely for portions of the mid-Hudson Valley and Litchfield
County, CT. These values will fall short of current daily
record highs. Rain showers associated with a cold front will
track northwest to southeast during the day reaching areas north
and west of Albany this morning and areas south and east this
afternoon. Wet bulb effects shortly after the onset of rain
will cause temperatures to fall back through the 70s into the
60s. There may be some weak instability present across portions
of the mid- Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT for a
rumble of thunder to occur if any taller shower can develop.
Rainfall, overall, will be rather light with most areas picking
up 0.15 inches or less, though some locally higher amounts up to
0.50 inches are possible across portions of the Adirondacks as
well as the mid- Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT should
a thunderstorm develop. Still, no hydrological impacts are
expected. Rain showers fully exit the region by this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure builds into the region behind the cold front
tonight and tracks across the region this weekend. Saturday will
be a very nice day with plenty of sun and near seasonable
temperatures. Similar temperatures are expected on Sunday but
there will be an increase in high clouds during the day as
separate northern and southern stream systems approach. Sunday
looks to remain dry. The best rain chances will be for areas
north and west of Albany Sunday night into Monday as a strong
cold front approaches from the Great Lakes region. This front
crosses the region on Monday bringing breezy conditions and a
brief push of much cooler air as 850 hPa temperatures fall to
below 0C. High temperatures in the 50s and 60s Monday will trend
down to the upper 40s to upper 50s on Tuesday. Temperatures
look to fall back into the 30s for most areas Tuesday night
which would increase the potential for frost formation,
including within the Hudson Valley into Litchfield County, CT
where the growing season continues. Temperatures rebound back to
near normal values for the mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06z/Sat...VFR conditions will be in place to start the
TAF period. Rain showers along a cold front will track across
the region from northwest to southeast on Sunday. VFR conditions
at the onset of showers may trend to periods of MVFR for vsbys
and/or cigs as showers continue. In the wake of the front and
showers, some lingering MVFR cigs could continue for a brief
time before drier air advancing in brings decreasing clouds and
the return to VFR conditions by the end of the TAF period.

Winds will remain south to southwesterly 5-10 kt through the
early morning hours, then shift to the west to northwest at
similar speeds this afternoon into tonight. A few brief gusts
to around 20 kt are possible at some sites Sunday afternoon.
Periods of LLWS are possible at all sites until around 12z/Sun
as winds at 2000 feet remain around 35 kt from the southwest.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33