362
FXUS61 KALY 032348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
648 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions through this evening across eastern New York and
western New England. An arctic cold front moves through
tomorrow bringing scattered snow showers, gusty winds, and
isolated snow squalls during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. In wake of the cold front, a bitterly cold air
mass will move in Thursday night into Friday with dry
conditions. Below normal temperatures will continue into the
weekend, with just a low chance of snow showers mainly west of
the Hudson Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing potential for scattered snow squalls and gusty
  winds tomorrow associated with an Arctic cold front.

- In wake of the Arctic front, bitterly cold temperatures will
  take hold tomorrow night into Friday.

Discussion:

For the rest of today, dry conditions continue with increasing
cloudiness from the west as surface high pressure heads east. A
quick moving upper level trough from our north moves through
tonight and tomorrow bringing chances for lake effect snow
showers and snow squalls. Ahead of an approaching arctic cold
front tomorrow, lake effect snow showers reach into Herkimer and
Hamilton counties bringing light snowfall accumulations between
1 to 2 inches. Confidence continues to increase for the
potential of snow squalls to develop to our west and move
eastward into the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie Valley, Greater
Capital District, and Lake George-Saratoga region late tomorrow
morning and early afternoon. How far east these snow squalls
could reach is still fluctuating with high resolution forecast
model guidances. Nevertheless, be prepared tomorrow for quickly
changing traveling conditions due to these gusty snow showers.
Winds will be breezy tomorrow as the front moves through and
behind it for the late afternoon and early evening hours with
the current forecast supporting 25-35 mph. Similar to the
previous forecast, there could be stronger gusts as winds aloft
are stronger and if they mix down from above the surface it
could contribute to over 35 mph. Winds decrease as the upper
level trough quickly heads east late tomorrow afternoon and
evening with dry conditions returning.

Temperatures tonight and tomorrow before the arctic cold front
range in the teens and 20s. There won`t be too much fluctuation
with the temperatures ahead of this front due to the clouds
overhead helping keep them from becoming colder. Behind the
front is a different story due to clearing skies and recent
snowpack, temperatures are forecasted to decrease significantly
from the teens/20s to the single digits and teens. With the
breezy winds too, it`s going to feel even colder outside with
feels-like temperatures in the single digits and negative 5 to
15 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing
  through early next week.

As of 1:45 PM...The forecast for the long term is still on
track from the previous shift, see the discussion below for
more details.

Discussion:

High pressure builds in from the west Thu night, although there
will still be a bit of a breeze into the evening. Once
temperatures cool considerably with the high moving overhead
later at night into early Fri morning, the winds should become
near calm. So while bitterly cold temperatures are
anticipated(especially with a fresh snow pack), the lack of
overlap with winds should preclude issuance of any Cold Weather
Advisories at this time. Will continue to monitor trends. Low
temperatures range from 0 to -5F in the higher terrain to 0 to
5F in lower elevations. This will be the first frigid air mass
of the season. Dry conditions will persist on Fri, with
temperatures "warming" into the upper 10s to mid 20s as high
pressure shifts east off the coast.

A storm system is expected to track well south of the region
across the southern mid Atlantic region Fri night. Most guidance
has snow suppressed to our south with just a 20% chance from
the NBM south of Albany. Tempertures will remain chilly, but
not as cold as Thu night.

Below normal temperatures are favored to continue over the
weekend and through early next week. A weak disturbance may
bring a few light snow showers to areas west of the Hudson
Valley on Sat. Then another Arctic cold front is expected to
move through late Sun into Sun night. So temperatures will
plunge to well below normal levels again Mon into Tue. A clipper
system may bring some snow on Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z/Fri, VFR conditions through tonight at all
terminals. Then, an arctic cold front will cross the TAF sites
from NW to SE between 15Z and 18Z/Thu. Confidence in gusty
winds occurring once the front arrives and in its wake lasting
through 21-23 UTC is high. Guidance shows winds becoming west
to northwest, sustained 10-18kts, and gusts up to 30-40kts
(strongest at ALB and PSF). While overall moisture is lacking, high
resolution guidance also shows a brief period of disorganized
snow showers from 16 to 21 UTC, including potential isolated snow
squalls. We continue to show PROB30 groups to account for this
possibility, with IFR visibilities during any snow shower/squall
given the gusty winds leading to low vis. There is also low to
medium confidence in a band of lake effect snow developing off
Lake Ontario and extending eastward reaching ALB and even PSF 18
to 21 UTC. This also contributes to our concerns for IFR
visibilities at both sites. Towards the end of the TAF period,
skies and vis likely improve and trend back towards VFR with
winds weakening as well.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05/07
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...31