897
FXUS61 KALY 072335
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
635 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast moving clipper system will bring a period of snow for
the western and central Adirondacks into tonight with a light
accumulation expected. Behind this system, frigid air will pour
into the entire region for Monday into Tuesday, with well-below
normal temperatures. More widespread rain and snow will return
to the region with another storm system for Tuesday night into
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Fast moving low pressure will bring a period of accumulating
  snow through the late evening hours. NBM probabilities for
  seeing 1" or snow or greater are over 50 percent for the
  western and central Adirondacks and far western Mohawk Valley.

- Frigid air mass will build into the region for tomorrow into
  tomorrow night. Temperatures will average around 20 degrees
  below normal.

Discussion:

An area of low pressure is situated along the boundary across
western New York. As this low lifts along the front, a period of
steady light snow will continue across northwestern areas for
this evening. Most of the activity will impact the western and
central Adirondacks and Lake George Saratoga Region, but even
some light snow may spread as far south as parts of the Mohawk
Valley, Capital Region and southern Vermont. NBM probabilities
over 50 percent for at least an inch are limited to just the
northwestern parts of the area, with little to no chance for
greater than 4". Based on the latest NBM and coordination with
WPC and neighboring offices, have about 1-3" in the western
Adirondacks, with a coating to an inch of the rest of the area
from the Mohawk Valley and I-90 northward, with little to no
snow for areas on southward, where limited QPF and dry low
levels should just keep it dry. Most of the snow will be done by
about midnight or so, although a few light snow showers and
flurries can`t be ruled out in upslope northern areas through
the late night hours. Behind the departing storm, even colder
air will move into the region from the west, with late night
lows dropping into the single digits and teens.

Monday will be a rather brisk and frigid start to the week, with
temperatures averaging close to 20 degrees below normal. Highs
will generally be in the teens to low 20s across the region. It
will be somewhat breezy to start the day with a pressure
gradient in place, but these winds will diminish as the day
progresses as a high pressure area builds into the region from
the west. Skies should be fairly sunny on Monday and will remain
clear into Monday night with the high overhead. Good radiational
cooling will allow for temps to fall into the single digits for
many areas on Monday night, with some below zero temps for the
high terrain and other typically-colder sheltered areas.

Tuesday will be another cold day, although not quite as frigid
as Monday, with temps generally in the 20s. After a fairly clear
start to the day, clouds will increase as the next system
approaches from the west. This next storm will be another
fairly-moisture starved northern stream clipper system for late
Tuesday into Tuesday night. The track of this system will also
be to the north, as it moves from the Great Lakes across the
North Country and towards northern New England. With this track,
the best moisture/lift will be to the north, keeping our area
on the fringe of this storm system. While some light snow
accumulation is possible for northern areas, most spots may just
see a light dusting from some passing light snow showers. Temps
will remain in the teens and 20s into Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another storm system will quickly be impacting the region for
Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will be a stronger area of
low pressure moving across the Great Lakes and it may track
close to or just northwest of the area for late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Initially, the warm advection will allow for a
period of light snow across much of the area. However, as temps
warm up within the southerly flow ahead of the advancing storm,
there may be a changeover to light rain for valley areas, as
temps at the surface (and possibly aloft as well) rise above
freezing. There are some differences in the model guidance, but
NBM probabilities show over a 60% chance for the entire area
(even valley areas) to see at least a coating of snow, and
likely probabilities (over 60%) for at least advisory level snow
(4+") over the Adirondacks, southern Greens and high peaks of
the eastern Catskills. The highest QPF will likely be for
northern and high terrain areas, as the storm track and upslope
flow will favor these areas, but less precip overall in valley
areas, in addition to the potential thermal issues with warming
temperatures. The storm`s cold front should cross through on Wed
evening into Wednesday night with some additional rain and snow
showers.

Behind the system, much colder air will return to the region for
the late week. Model guidance now suggests our region will be
dominated by northwest flow for the late week, with some
cyclonic flow and lake effect snow showers and flurries, but any
other storm systems will track south of the region around the
large upper level trough. Temps will remain below normal through
the late week and into the weekend, with highs in the 20s to low
30s and lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Tuesday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals
as of 6:30 PM EST. A weak disturbance is bringing some snow
showers to the region this evening, but most of these snow
showers have largely avoided the TAF sites. Will just include
VCSH groups at GFL/ALB/PSF for the first few hours of the TAF
period. Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions with BKN cigs at
4000-6000 ft through around 06z, with clouds scattering out
after that. However, at PSF, a period of MVFR cigs is possible
through around 04-06z. Clouds continue to diminish through the
night and tomorrow, with VFR conditions prevailing.

Winds this evening will be from the S/SW veering to the SW at
5-10 kt. Winds then switch to the NW behind a cold frontal
passage and increase to around 10 kt with gusts up to around
25kt. Timing of the wind shift looks to be 04-06z. Winds remain
gusty through the rest of the night and into tomorrow morning,
but then gusts subside to 15-20 kt by mid-morning. Gusts
diminish entirely with winds subsiding to 4-8 kt or less by
sunset tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...35