559
FXUS61 KALY 291108
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
708 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Slight Chance PoPs were expanded eastward into the Capital
District for tonight. Maintained gusty winds behind the cold
front on Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring some light rain showers mainly from
the Capital District and points north and west tonight followed
by drier and breezy conditions on Friday.

2) Dry weather is expected this weekend through early next
week with the next best chance for more widespread rainfall
delayed until mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A mostly sunny and milder day is in store ahead of an
approaching cold front. High temperatures will reach the 60s to
around 70 which will be around 10 degrees above normal. While
the best forcing will remain north of the area, a passing cold
front should contain enough moisture to bring some light rain
showers tonight with the higher probabilities north and west of
Albany. Latest CAMs still suggest some isolated light showers or
sprinkles could extend as far east as the Capital District so
introduced slight chance PoPs (15-25%) into these areas.
Measurable rainfall is favored for areas north and west of
Albany but will likely remain below 0.10 inches. For most areas,
it has been nearly 2 weeks since measurable rainfall last
occurred. Behind the front, drier and breezy conditions develop
on Friday with westerly winds gusting 20 to 30 mph with
localized gusts to 35 mph into portions of the Capital District
and Berkshires.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure rebuilds across the region for this weekend with
dry and near seasonable weather with light winds. The high
shifts to the east early next week allowing for temperatures to
run about 5 degrees above normal but mostly dry weather looks
to continue. Thereafter, considerable uncertainty still exists
when the next best chance for more widespread rainfall occurs.
Will run with chance PoPs beginning next Wednesday until
confidence in the overall synoptic pattern improves.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12z/Fri...Patchy stratocu clouds have developed over
KPOU/KPSF early this morning which could bring some MVFR cigs
through 14-15z/Thu. KALB/KGFL will start VFR. Fair weather
cumulus forms midday today through the afternoon with bases
around 3500-5000 feet. These cumulus clouds diminish after
sunset with a brief period of SKC conditions before clouds
increase ahead of a cold front. A few light showers may reach
KGFL prior to 06z/Fri so included a PROB30. A light shower or
sprinkle may also reach KALB/KPSF but coverage looked too low to
include in the TAF at this time. Mixed MVFR/VFR cigs are then
possible around and after 06z/Fri before lifting back to VFR
toward the end of the TAF period.

South to southwesterly winds will increase this morning reaching
around 10 kt by this afternoon with some gusts to 20 kt,
especially at KALB. Winds remain south to southwesterly 5-10 kt
tonight except trend calm at KPOU. Wind will begin to shift to
the west toward the end of the TAF period. Periods of LLWS will
be possible at all sites tonight mainly due to the directional
difference from surface winds. Winds at 2000 feet will be 30-35
kt out of the west.

Outlook...

Friday Night to Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33