889
FXUS61 KALY 150741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
341 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from a stray shower over the high terrain, expect
dry conditions for Father`s Day with a mostly cloudy sky and
temperatures on the cooler side.  Temperatures will moderate closer
to normal for Monday into Tuesday, with the chance for a passing
shower.  Warmer and more humid weather is expected for the middle to
latter portion of the week with some afternoon thunderstorms
possible as well for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EDT...A stalled out surface boundary remains in
place over the mid Atlantic States. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure is located off the coast of eastern New England, which
is keeping the low level flow out of the east-southeast over our
area. Both the low and mid level flow is helping supply some
moisture to the region.

IR satellite imagery early this morning continues to show a
fairly widespread area of stratus and stratocu over the area
thanks to all the moisture. There have been some breaks across
the Adirondacks and Lake George area and some patchy fog has
been developing in that area. Into the start of the day, it
will stay fairly dry, but remain cloudy for most locations. Some
patchy fog will continue to be possible, especially for spots
that saw some clearing earlier in the overnight.

With the frontal boundary fairly far south of the area, showers
and thunderstorms associated with this system will remain well
south of the area over the mid Atlantic States for today into
tonight. Will continue to keep the forecast mainly dry across
the area, however, there will probably be a good deal of
cloudiness around. A few breaks of sun are possible for valley
areas later this afternoon, especially northern areas, but it
generally be mostly cloudy to overcast through the day thanks to
moisture trapped beneath an inversion aloft. CAMs suggest a
brief shower or sprinkle is possible for the Adirondacks and
Mohawk Valley, but weak forcing should keep this very isolated.
With the clouds around, temps will be cooler than normal, with
highs in the mid 60s to low 70s for most spots, making for a
relatively cool Father`s Day (although most will still take this
over a steady rainfall type of day).

For tonight, it will continue to stay fairly dry and quiet with
a similar pattern remaining in place. Skies will remain partly
to mostly cloudy through the overnight hours and lows will be
in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly quiet weather will continue through the short term
period. The upper level flow will remain fairly zonal through
the short term period, although temps aloft will be slowly
rising from Monday into Tuesday thanks some warm advection.

It should be fairly dry on Monday into Monday night with no
strong forcing near the area. Skies will be partly cloudy with
seasonable temps (mid to upper 70s in valley areas during the
day and 50s at night.)

An approaching upper level disturbance, aided by some warm
advection/isentropic lift, should lead to a period of some
showers for Tuesday into Tuesday night. At this point,
instability seems fairly limited, so won`t include any thunder.
Any precip looks fairly light and intermittent and will limit
POPs to just chance at this time. Rainfall rates should be
manageable, with fairly light precip, no threat for any heavy
rainfall or flooding at this time. Temps will continue to be
close to normal for Tuesday into Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Moderating temperatures with additional chances of showers and
storms through the end of the work week

Discussion:

Weak ridging to near zonal mid and upper level flow will build
across the region for the middle of the week. The flow in the lower
levels will be more out of the southwest, favoring continued
advection of warmer temperatures across the Northeast. This will be
in addition to more moisture, leading to increased humidity and more
muggy conditions. PM highs Wednesday should climb back above 80 for
most, with lower values in the 70s mainly across higher elevations.
These temperatures with increasing humidity will persist into
Thursday, with potential for apparent temperatures in the low-mid
90s in valley locations.

Along with this warmth will come increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms beginning late Wednesday, as several shortwaves
embedded in the zonal flow cross the region ahead of an approaching
cold front. The best chance for showers/storms during this period
will be Thursday with the cold front, with potential for storms to
be strong given ample instability, shear and lift along and ahead of
the boundary. Will continue to monitor this potential over the
coming days.

The front and its preceding trough should begin to work east of the
region going into the weekend, though deterministic guidance remains
in disagreement of the exact speed it departs. Utilizing ensembles,
latest guidance favors a return to near normal temperatures Friday
and Saturday, along with primarily dry conditions with a low
potential for diurnally driven rain showers given the nearby
proximity of the boundary.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...MVFR to LIFR conditions are currently in place
across the terminals to start this TAF period due to a combination
of low stratus and fog. At KPSF/KPOU, low MVFR stratus will persist
for much of the upcoming TAF period, with improvement to VFR
conditions being seen at KALB by mid-morning as the stratus mixes
out. For KGFL, IFR/LIFR conditions in locally dense fog and stratus
will improve early this morning back to VFR. There is a signal of a
return to reduced visibilities late in the period, but left mention
out of the TAF at this time due to low confidence. The winds will
vary from northeast to southeast at 5 KT or less tonight, and will
be east/southeast 5-10 KT in the late morning through the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck