774
FXUS61 KALY 041115
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
615 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today, scattered snow showers and snow squalls are
expected ahead of an arctic cold front. Tonight will be the
coldest night of the season so far, with temperatures below zero
for most high terrain areas, and even some northern valley
areas. After a dry and cold day Friday, there will be a few
chances for some light snow showers through the long term, with
continued below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered snow squalls expected ahead of an arctic
  front today, especially for areas north and west of the Capital
  District.

- Wind gusts this afternoon and evening are expected to approach
  but fall just short of advisory criteria (46+ mph) for
  portions of the Mohawk Valley, Capital District, and
  Berkshires.

- In wake of the Arctic front, bitterly cold temperatures are
  expected tonight.

Discussion: As of 2:10 AM EST...Current sfc analysis shows a 992 mb
sfc low located over the eastern portion of Hudson Bay, with a
trailing cold front located back over the Great Lakes. Ahead of the
cold front, skies are mostly cloudy, which has helped to hold
temperatures a few to several degrees above latest NBM guidance,
with 20s to around 30 for most areas. We are also seeing light snow
showers moving into the western ADKs and western Mohawk Valley with
a corridor of enhanced low to mid-level moisture ahead of the cold
front and associated upper troughing. These snow showers should
continue to expand eastwards as we head through the rest of the
night and the first half of this morning. Portions of the southern
ADKs could pick up an inch or two of new snow, with a coating to
less than an inch possible in the Western Mohawk Valley and in the
southern Greens.

Today...Main focus will be potential for snow squalls ahead of/with
the arctic cold front as it tracks through our region from west
to east from late morning through the afternoon. Latest
guidance is in good agreement that the best chance for snow
squalls will be mainly for areas along and north of I-90, which
is were the snow squall parameter is >1 in the hi-res guidance.
This makes sense, as this is where the best low-level
convergence/FGEN and SBCAPE values of up to around 75 J/kg will
be located. Any snow squalls could put down a quick coating to
an inch of snow and lead to significantly reduced visibilities.
With high temperatures near or below freezing for this area,
roads could therefore become slippery in any snow squalls.

With 850 mb temperatures dropping to -18C or below, NW flow
trajectories, and inversion heights around 700 mb, we may also
see a band of lake effect/lake enhanced snow down the Mohawk
Valley and into the Capital District for a couple hours this
afternoon/early evening. Have gone with a RGEM/NAM blend for QPF
and snow amounts here show the potential for up to a few inches
of snow in the Mohawk Valley and Berkshires (where there will
be upslope enhancement from NW flow), and up to an inch or so in
the Capital District. While the timing of this band looks to be
around the PM commute, snowfall amounts were not high enough to
warrant advisory issuance. This band should shift south into
the Schoharie Valley after sunset briefly before dissipating as
sfc high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

Other main focus this afternoon and evening is gusty winds.
BUFKIT model forecast soundings show deep mixing within the cold
advection regime behind the arctic front and 40-50 kt at the top of
the BL. 4-6 mb pressure rises in 3 hrs behind the front also
supports wind gusts potentially getting close to advisory
criteria, especially where the NW flow tends to be channeled
down the Mohawk Valley, through the Capital District, and into
the Berkshires. We increased wind gusts substantially from the
NBM and even above the NBM 90th percentile in some areas, but
per coordination with neighboring offices decided to hold off on
the wind advisory given that it looks rather borderline.

Tonight, 1030 mb sfc high pressure builds eastwards from the Great
Lakes, eventually sliding over eastern NY by 12z Friday.
This will allow for winds to become light and will put an end to any
lingering lake effect snow showers. However, with clearing skies and
most areas having a fresh snowpack on the ground, we will see nearly
ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows will likely range
from the single digits in the Hudson Valley south of Albany to
10-15 below zero in the ADKs, which could be near record daily
lows for some locations. Please see climate section below for
more details. We collaborated with neighboring WFOs to lower
temperatures tonight several degrees below the NBM, and would
not be surprised to see temperatures even colder than our
deterministic forecast for western areas that will have the
longest time spent under the sfc high. While a few high-terrain
areas could hit cold weather advisory criteria, we did not have
enough areal coverage to warrant advisory issuance. Partly to
mostly clear skies and dry conditions persist through Friday. It
will also be quite chilly with daytime highs only in the 10s
(high terrain) to 20s (valleys).

Friday night and Saturday...Temperatures will drop off quickly after
sunset Friday, but the sfc high will be moving off to the east
and high clouds increasing as a southern stream disturbance
slides to the south of our region and a northern stream
disturbance approaches from the Great Lakes. Our
southern/southeastern-most towns could see some light snow
showers or flurries Friday night from the southern system, with
a few snow showers in the ADKs Saturday from the northern stream
shortwave. Any accumulations look minimal at this time. Lows
Friday night will be in the single digits (high elevations) to
10s (valleys) with highs Saturday climbing back into the 20s to
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message:

- High confidence in below normal temperatures continuing
  through early next week.

Discussion:
Long term period looks to feature continued below normal
temperatures, with a series of northern stream disturbances expected
to track across our area. Lingering snow showers Saturday evening
should diminish overnight as heights rise aloft and the upper
forcing tracks off to our east. Lows Saturday night mainly in the
10s to 20s. Sunday starts off dry, but another upper shortwave and
strong cold frontal passage will bring additional chances for snow
showers Sunday evening and night. Sunday highs will be in the 20s to
30s, but drop back into the 10s to single digits for lows, with some
below zero readings possible in the ADKs. Winds will likely also
become gusty on Sunday night and Monday behind the arctic front.
Monday will be dry but quite chilly with highs only in the 10s to
20s.

Sfc high pressure builds overhead Monday night, which could lead to
another very cold night. The 12z ECMWF ensemble shows EFI values
for minimum temps of -0.8 to -0.9 across the region Monday
night, giving us fairly high confidence in the potential for
unusually cold temperatures. Lows will likely end up lower than
the current NBM forecast, with below zero readings once again
possible for high terrain areas. Temperatures remain below
normal Tuesday and Wednesday, with another northern
stream/clipper system potentially bring additional chances for
snow showers towards the tail end of the long term period. Cold
temperatures look to persist into the 8-14 day period per latest
CPC guidance, with the CPC also expecting near to above normal
precip for days 8-14.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...An Arctic cold front will move southeast
across the area this afternoon. Scattered snow showers and
squalls will accompany the front. Will continue to mention
PROB30 for any snow squalls which should be brief lasting around
20 minutes or less. Time frame looks to be between 16z-21z from
KGFL to KALB to KPSF. The squalls should weaken prior to
reaching KPOU. Mainly VFR conditions will occur through the 24
hour TAF period, but brief IFR/LIFR vsby and MVFR cigs are
possible within the snow squalls. Also MVFR cigs will continue
at KGFL into this morning. Skies will clear later this afternoon
as high pressure starts to build in from the west. Winds will
initially be west-southwest around 5-10 kt, becoming west-
northwest and increasing to 15-20 kt with gusts of 25- 35 kt
developing. Gusts of 30-40 kt are also likely with any snow
squalls. Winds will decrease to 10-15 kt this evening, then
eventually near calm overnight.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record lows for December 5th:

Site:     Record Low (Year)     Forecast Low tonight

KGFL      -6F (1989)            -7F
KALB       2F (1989)             1F
KPOU       7F (1966, 1989)       5F
KPSF       0F (1926)            -2F

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...35
SHORT TERM...35
LONG TERM...07/35
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...35