229
FXUS61 KALY 181817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
117 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM, broad high pressure stretched from Upper Mississippi
River Valley through the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic, with strong
surface low pressure across northeast Quebec. Our area was under
mostly cloudy skies with persistent cyclonic flow from the
aforementioned surface low overhead, but hints of increasing
subsidence with the approaching high were being observed with
increasing sunshine across portions of western New York.
Temperatures as of this hour ranged from...

While the incoming high pressure will be the primary influencer of
our weather for the majority of the short term period, will be
keeping a close eye on a clipper system as it tracks across
Pennsylvania into the Mid Atlantic, southwestern New York and
southern New England tonight into Wednesday. Majority of CAMs,
deterministic models and probabilistic guidance keep chances of
precipitation well south of the area, though the latest 12z HRRR
does hint at light accumulating snow (T-2") mainly across the
southernmost portions of Ulster, Dutchess and Litchfield counties.
This is likely due to the model analyzing a stronger system with
more low-level moisture to work with. Confidence in this scenario
evolving is low, though a light dusting to a few tenths of an inch
of snow will be possible before melting off by Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, increasing ridging with the high will promote increasing
sunshine across the area Wednesday, which will lead to more
widespread highs back in the low to mid 40s outside of higher
terrain. Overnight lows Wednesday night will remain cold in the low
to mid 20s outside of higher terrain.

For Thursday, conditions will remain dry with increasing clouds
ahead of an approaching shortwave from the Great Lakes and warm
front from the Ohio River Valley. Highs Thursday will be similar to
Wednesday, though Thursday night lows should rise back into the 30s
in the valleys with increasing southerly flow aloft and at the
surface.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm front will be moving through the region quickly early Friday
morning and afternoon, and will be accompanied by increasing low-
level moisture and isentropic lift. Precipitation chances will begin
to increase from south to north after midnight Friday, though
activity will be more isolated to scattered in coverage with the
warm front and will be focused mainly in the higher elevations of
the Catskills, Berkshires, ADKs and southern Greens. A brief period
of freezing drizzle will be possible initially across the higher
elevations where temperatures will be near freezing, but this will
change over to all rain as temperatures rise through the morning.

The best chance of precipitation with this system will arrive in the
late morning across the Mohawk Valley and western ADKs with the
approach of the cold front and trailing shortwave. Rain is primarily
expected, though some high elevation snow showers will be possible
across the ADKs as the system departs Friday evening and overnight.
Rainfall amounts will be light, with latest probabilistic guidance
and NBM favoring amounts below a quarter of an inch. Friday will be
our warmest day of the week, with PM highs climbing into the mid 40s
to low 50s outside of high terrain (mid to upper 30s).

For Saturday through Monday, high pressure will quickly follow
behind the system with dry conditions favored going into early next
week. Temperatures will cool slightly, but will hover near normal
with highs in the mid to upper 40s and overnight lows in the
20s/30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...All terminals now seeing VFR conditions as
of 12:00 PM EST. VFR conditions continue well into tonight at all
terminals, with SCT to occasionally BKN clouds between 3500-5000 ft.
Later tonight, a weak disturbance passing to our south will bring
increasing mid and high clouds, especially for POU. Can`t rule out
some light snow showers with low-end MVFR to high-end IFR vsbys at
POU for a few hours prior to sunrise and have included a prob30
group to highlight this. However, most likely scenario is that snow
showers remain south of POU. Will also have to watch for some
fog/mist at GFL late tonight if the high clouds are thin enough
there, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time.
Otherwise, mid-level cloud coverage diminishes tomorrow morning as
the disturbance pulls away to our east, allowing for prevailing VFR
conditions at all terminals. Winds will be at 5-10 kt from  the W/NW
with gusts of 15-20 kt (locally 25 kt gusts at ALB/PSF), but become
light and variable after sunset tonight. Winds tomorrow morning
increase to around 5 kt from the NW around mid-morning through the
end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...35