774
FXUS61 KALY 161033
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
633 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building across the region will bring dry and
cool conditions through the end of the work week. Temperatures
will moderate Saturday and Sunday as a warm front moves through
the region, though conditions will remain tranquil. Our next
chances of rain arrive Sunday night into Monday, and look to
persist into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Dry, cool and breezy through Friday with temperatures moderating
  Saturday.

- Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings in effect tonight into
  Friday morning as temperatures drop near to below freezing
  across the Hudson Valley into northwest Connecticut.

03z surface analysis showed surface high pressure centered across
the Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley, which was bringing cool
northerly flow into the region as of this writing. Temperatures as
of 200 AM ranged from the upper 30s to mid 40s, mainly thanks
to light northwest winds at the surface. Low to mid level clouds
were observed mainly across the southern Greens into the ADKs,
with clear skies elsewhere.

Through Friday, dry conditions can be expected with continued cool
temperatures as the surface high pressure moves across the region.
Breezy conditions are expected once again this afternoon with a
tight surface pressure gradient between the incoming high and a
surface low just east of Nova Scotia, resulting in PM gusts around
20-30 MPH. Afternoon highs today will climb into the 40s (terrain)
to mid 50s (valleys), with highs Friday generally in the 50s to low
60s.

Winds will subside and become light & variable tonight, resulting in
an optimal setup for radiational cooling with clear skies. Elected
to issue a Freeze Warning for the Lake George-Saratoga Region, and a
Frost Advisory for the Greater Capital District south into the Mid
Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and portions of the Litchfield
Hills where the growing season is ongoing with temperatures falling
near to below freezing. Please see the latest statements for
additional information. Outside of these locations, lows will range
from the mid 20s to low 30s. A similar setup will unfold Friday
night as lows drop into the upper 20s to mid 30s, which may
necessitate additional frost advisory or freeze warning issuance.
Please continue to monitor the latest forecast information.

The surface high will continue to move east, and is progged to be
centered across the Mid Atlantic Saturday afternoon. This will open
the door for building ridging aloft and increasing temperatures with
strengthening southerly flow. While conditions will remain dry
with the high Saturday, afternoon highs should climb into the
upper 50s (terrain) to mid 60s (valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Dry conditions daytime Sunday will give way to unsettled weather
  for early next week.

 - Probabilities for at least 0.5" across the region range from
  about 50-70% with a 20-50% chance for 1" or greater.

Dry conditions are expected for the start of the long term period
with the surface high continuing to move east. Lows Saturday night
will be milder in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with highs Sunday
climbing into the 60s to low 70s despite increasing cloud cover.

Attention then turns to a trough currently across the western CONUS
as it works its way east, which is progged with its surface cold
front to reach the region Sunday night. Rain showers associated with
the front will spread across the region from west to east Sunday
night, with most exiting the region Monday morning as dry air
quickly moves in. Some isolated to scattered rain showers may linger
into Monday afternoon and Tuesday with additional lift accompanying
the shortwave/closed low aloft and trailing upper level jet, though
guidance does maintain some disagreement on exact placement. Because
of this, chose to remain with the NBM which advertises generally low
chances (20-40%) of rain showers Monday through Tuesday.
Probabilities have increased in this forecast package of at least
0.50" of rainfall (50-70%) for the region, but remain low for
amounts greater than 1.00" (20-50%). Temperatures look to fall back
to near normal behind the front, with highs in the 50s/60s and lows
in the 30s/40s Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions expected, with just some
patchy mid level clouds through this morning. Main issue will
be gusty northwest to north winds from mid morning through
sunset, with sustained speeds increasing to 8-15 KT, and gusts
of 25-30 KT during this time, strongest at KPOU and KPSF. Winds
will decrease to 8-12 KT with gusts mainly under 20 KT shortly
after sunset, and then 5-10 KT after midnight.

Outlook...

Friday Night-Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     CTZ001.
NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
     Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ041-043-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...17
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...24