832
FXUS61 KALY 271817
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
217 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Once showers diminish this evening, dry weather is
expected through tomorrow, but chances for showers and an
isolated thunderstorm increase Thursday night and Friday. While
a few isolated showers are possible for northern areas Saturday,
most of the weekend into early next week looks dry.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend, then
moderate to more normal levels early next week. &&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 2:15 PM EDT...GOES 16 WV imagery shows an upper shortwave
trough tracking off to our east towards central New England this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers have developed as a
result of the cold pool aloft associated with this upper trough,
and should continue to track eastwards across southern VT and
western MA through the next couple hours before dissipating.
Here, the combination of steep low-level lapse rates and cold
air aloft has resulted in up to 500 J/kg of SBCAPE per latest
SPC mesoanalysis, so we will continue to mention slight chances
for thunder through the next couple hours. Additional showers
are moving into out northwestern ADK zones with another, weaker
upper shortwave moving over this area. Otherwise, most areas are
dry with temperatures expected to top out in the 60s to low 70s
this afternoon. With deep mixing behind the departing shortwave,
dew points have dropped into the low 40s, well below NBM
guidance. It is also breezy across the region, with some wind
gusts of up to around 20 kt especially from the Mohawk Valley
through the Capital District and into the Berkshires.

Tonight and Thursday...Showers should diminish early this
evening as the cold pool aloft departs off to the east, and
winds drop off as well after sunset. Heights rise aloft, and sfc
high pressure ridges across areas southeast of the Capital
District. This will result in favorable radiational cooling
conditions, so we undercut NBM lows here by a few degrees
(most places drop into the 40s), while sticking with NBM
guidance further north and west where more high clouds and a
light wind are expected tonight. Patchy fog will be possible
tonight into early tomorrow morning. The sfc high then slides to
our S/SE tomorrow, allowing winds to shift to the south and
slightly warmer air to be advected into our region. Tomorrow
will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s for most
valley areas. It will not be quite as breezy compared to today,
but some gusts of 15-20 kt will still be possible especially in
the N/S oriented valley areas. With deep mixing and abundant
mid-level air, we felt comfortable undercutting NBM dew points
by several degrees, and this may still not be low enough.
Tomorrow should remain dry, although high clouds continue to
increase through the day, especially after noon.

Thursday night and Friday...An asymmetric upper-level low (ULL)
drops into southern Quebec, helping to drive an initial cold
front through our region Thursday night with a secondary cold
frontal passage Friday (this second front will result in the
bigger temperature drop). A wave of low pressure develops along
the front as the ULL transitions from a positive to negative
tilt, so upper forcing looks fairly impressive, which will help
result in scattered showers despite unimpressive moisture return
ahead of the front. We will likely see the line of
showers/storms weaken as it approaches from the west Thursday
evening with the loss of daytime heating, and the overnight
timing of the initial cold frontal passage should prevent any
threat for severe weather or heavy rain across our area. With
some pockets of elevated instability Thursday night and up to a
couple hundred J/kg of SBCAPE Friday, a few rumbles of thunder
will be possible, however. Lows Thursday night will be warmer,
in the 50s for most areas, with highs Friday in the 60s to low
70s.

Friday night through next Tuesday...Behind the front, we get
into a cold advection regime, which may result in a few lake
effect showers across the western Mohawk Valley or ADKs Friday
night as lows drop back into the 40s and 50s. Elsewhere, showers
should diminish by Friday evening. The ULL then sits to our
northeast Saturday before finally departing Saturday night or
Sunday. With the associated cold pool aloft, we will probably
have some additional isolated to scattered showers north of I-90
Saturday, and possibly a few showers Sunday if the ULL/cold
pool are slower to depart. Saturday, the pressure gradient will
be tight enough for it to become breezy across our region again,
but the pressure gradient slackens as the sfc high builds
overhead by Sunday. The sfc high will sit overhead beneath a
building upper ridge Sunday through Tuesday, resulting in large-
scale subsidence and tranquil weather across our region.
Daytime highs will start off below normal then moderate to more
seasonable levels by early next week. Lows will remain chilly
with favorable radiational cooling conditions each night under
the high. We also lowered afternoon dew points below the NBM
each day given that they have been too high in the current
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thru 18z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected mainly the next
24 hours for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF, as an upper level disturbance
associated with a mid and upper low will continue to bring
scattered showers from KALB/KPSF north to KGFL with some brief
lapses to MVFR cigs/vsbys prior to 21Z/Wed. Sct-bkn
stratocumulus and midlevel clouds will linger until 00Z/Thu at
all the TAF sites, but then will quickly decrease with the loss
of the daytime heating, as high pressure ridges in. Tonight will
be clear/mostly clear with the ridging building in, as just a
few-sct cirrus will move in towards noontime tomorrow. The
winds will be W/NW to the N/NW at 8-15 KT this afternoon with a
few gusts around 20 KT at KALB/KPSF. The winds will become light
to calm tonight, and then pick up from the south/southwest
after 12Z/Thu around 5 KT.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Labor Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
DISCUSSION...Main
AVIATION...Wasula