259
FXUS61 KALY 011846
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
246 PM EDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be near the Northeast tonight into
the mid week with seasonable temperatures and mainly dry
weather. A weak upper level disturbance will bring some clouds
and a few showers or thunderstorms over the southern
Adirondacks tomorrow. A cold front and a strong upper level
disturbance will bring showers and a few thunderstorms late
Thursday afternoon into Friday with cooler temperatures into
next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT...A quiet Labor Day with partly sunny to
mostly cloudy conditions due to some fair weather cumulus
beneath some high clouds. The mid and high clouds are associated
with an upper level low over the Delmarva Region drifting
northward over NY and New England tonight into tomorrow. The
high clouds will thin a bit for some radiative cooling
overnight, but not as extreme as the past few nights. Lows were
favored toward a blend with the NBM/MET guidance with 50-55F
readings in the valleys and mid 40s to around 50F over the
higher terrain. Some localized patchy fog may form in some of
the sheltered valleys near Lake George and the CT River Valley.

Another fairly nice day is expected tomorrow with the sfc high
near NY and New England. The cold core/pocket of cooler temps
aloft will be over upstate NY drifting into southeast Canada.
The steep mid level lapse rates, modest instability (MUCAPEs
~500 - 750 J/kg) and sfc dewpoints in the lower/mid 50s may
allow for isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
over the southern Adirondacks. We kept some 20-30% POPS there.
The rest of the forecast area will be partly to mostly sunny
with max temps near seasonal normals with upper 70s to around
80F in the major valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s over the
hilltowns and mtns. The skies should quickly clear with the loss
of the diurnal heating with partly cloudy to mostly clear
conditions. Some patchy valley radiational mist/fog is possible
again with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday looks like the last completely dry day for eastern NY
and western New England. The sfc anticyclone begins to shift off
the New England Coast. The mid level heights begins to fall
ahead of the upstream upper trough, as the become flow becomes
flatter.  H850 temps will be near normal for early Sept with
PWATs still running below normal 1-2 STDEVs. Max temps will be
near seasonal normal with 70s to lower 80s with a few cooler
readings over the mtns. The mid and upper level flow shifts
southwesterly ahead of the strong upper level trough over the
Upper Midwest and southern Ontario. Some mid and high clouds
increase Wed night with temps slightly milder with upper 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- The latest NBM probabilities are 35-60% for >0.50" of
  beneficial rainfall for the 24-hr period ending 8 pm Fri
  across eastern NY and western New England.

The weather pattern becomes more unsettled heading late in the
week with rain chances increasing. The forecast area has been
dry over the past month or so with many areas in D0 (some D1
in southern VT/western MA) according to the latest US Drought
Monitor. An amplifying and digging mid and upper level trough
over the central and eastern CONUS will impact the Northeast.
The low-level south to southwest flow increases ahead of a cold
front approaching from west Thu pm. Chances for showers and
isolated thunderstorms increased west of I-87 in the late pm and
early evening with the deeper moisture transport. Portions of
the southwest Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley may receive
a quarter to half inch of rainfall Thu pm. It will be breezy.
Clouds will increase during the day ahead of the front. Max
temps may trend slightly above normal with 70s to lower 80s for
highs with slightly cooler readings over the mtns.

Widespread showers overspread the forecast area Thu night into
Fri. Low probabilities in the 20-30% range continue for >1" of
rain for the 24hr period ending 8 pm Fri west of the Hudson
River Valley according to the NBM. The entire forecast area has
a good chance for >0.50" of rainfall Thu night into Fri. PWATs
rise above normal with modest instability a few thunderstorms
may produce enhanced rainfall rates. Overall, the rainfall
should be beneficial due to the recent dry conditions the past
month or so. Lows fall back into the 50s to around 60F Thu night
with highs Fri in the mid 60s to mid 70s with slightly warmer
readings south and east of the Capital Region.

Cyclonic flow is re-established over NY and New England Fri
night into the weekend in the wake of the cold front. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are possible ahead of a
secondary cold front and short-wave impulse to open the
weekend. Max temps in the mid 60s to mid/upper 70s on Sat with
cool down into the 40s to lower 50s at night. High pressure
builds in Sun into Mon with fair and dry weather with temps
near to slightly below normal. Some patchy frost may be possible
in the Adirondack Park Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions continue across all TAF sites through 02/06z.
High level clouds continue to move through eastern New York and
western New England this afternoon with skies becoming clear
later tonight. Once clouds clear, patchy fog could develop
across all TAF sites between 06z and 12z where conditions range
between MVFR and IFR. After 12z, VFR conditions should return
with light and variable winds throughout the TAF period.

Outlook...

Tue Night to Wed Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thu: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thu Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Fri: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...Slight
chance TSRA.
Fri Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sat: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Webb