358
FXUS61 KALY 250010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
710 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions through Tuesday morning will give way to
widespread, nuisance rainfall Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning courtesy of the passage of an upper-level
disturbance. Temperatures surge above normal Wednesday as light
showers linger in response to a passing warm front. A potent
cold front then swiftly tracks through the region Wednesday
evening or Wednesday night, causing temperatures to nose-dive
below normal and significant lake effect to develop Thursday
into Saturday morning. Drier conditions are expected Saturday
afternoon into Saturday night before another storm system
threatens potentially widespread precipitation to end the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry conditions will remain in place tonight and into tomorrow
morning as the anticyclone drifts east and begins to exit the
region. A few hours of radiational cooling tonight will see
temperatures drop widely into the 20s to near 30, but lows will
likely be reached before or around midnight as clouds begin to
lower ahead of an approaching upper-level shortwave and surface
trough. By tomorrow afternoon, an area of light, stratiform
rain will begin to overspread the region from southwest to
northeast as warm air advection and isentropic lift increase
ahead of a warm front associated with a developing area of low
pressure along the surface wave. Highs tomorrow will reach the
40s to low 50s with pockets of upper 30s across the highest
elevations of the Southwest Adirondacks and Southern Greens.

Lows Tuesday will be on the mild side due to rain and ample
cloud coverage with values in the 30s to low 40s. Rain from
Tuesday night tapers off Wednesday morning as the stratiform
rain shield departs to the northeast. Scattered showers will
remain in the wake of the stratiform rain shield as the
aforementioned warm front lifts northward, but a brief break is
anticipated later in the afternoon within the pseudo-warm
sector of the primary surface low that will be entering the
Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon beneath a closed low aloft.
Courtesy of the warm- advected environment and this pseudo- warm
sector, highs Wednesday will surge into the upper 40s to near
60 with pockets of mid 40s across higher terrain regions and low
60s in the lower Mid- Hudson Valley.

The warm up Wednesday will not be long lived as the primary low
and its upper-level counterpart deepen on their northeast track
into southwest Quebec and a potent cold front subsequently
rotates through the region. Some additional rain showers, and
perhaps a rumble of thunder, will pulse through the region along
and ahead of the front through Wednesday night, with snow
beginning to mix in at the higher elevations of the Southwest
Adirondacks. Lows Wednesday will fall to the mid 20s to low 30s
with most shower activity tapering off by early Thursday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Medium to high confidence in warning-level snowfall
   accumulations (40 to 70% of >7" over 72 hours) resulting
   from upslope and lake effect snowbands across northern
   Herkimer County Thursday afternoon through Friday night.

 - Medium to high confidence in advisory-level snowfall
   accumulations (40 to nearly 100% of >4" over 72 hours)
   resulting from upslope and lake effect snowbands across
   portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and western Mohawk
   Valley Thursday afternoon through Friday night.

 - Low to medium confidence in advisory-level wind gusts (20-60%
   >45 mph) across portions of the Southwest Adirondacks, Lake
   George Region, Mohawk Valley, Eastern Catskills, Southern
   Greens, Berkshires, and Taconics Thursday and Friday.

Discussion:
Persistent deepening of the upper-level low as it drifts
northward Thursday through Thursday night will enhance cyclonic
vorticity advection as potent cold air advection continues in
the wake of the cold front. As such, lake effect and upslope
snow will develop across the Southwest Adirondacks late Thursday
afternoon/early Thursday evening. Southwest flow to start will
allow lake effect bands to primarily become situated across far
northwest Herkimer and possibly Hamilton Counties, with
orographic enhancement leading to potentially heavier snowfall
rates. As an embedded shortwave pulses through the mean flow of
the upper-level trough, extending southward from the base of the
upper low, winds will gradually veer from the southwest to the
west Friday, possibly even becoming more northwesterly by Friday
night such that snowbands begin to wobble southward and extend
through the western Mohawk Valley and into portions of the
Northeast Catskills. Orographic enhancement will continue,
leading to light to moderate accumulations in the western Mohawk
Valley and portions of the Eastern Catskills, aligning with
strong low- level winds to give way to the development of
upslope snow showers in the Southern Greens and the extension
of snow bands as far south and east as the Capital District and
possibly even the Berkshires through Saturday morning. High
pressure will then begin to build in across the region from the
southwest Saturday, pairing with flat ridging aloft to cut off
lake effect from increased subsidence.

When all is said and done, storm total snowfall accumulations
are anticipated to be greatest in the Southwest Adirondacks
where values ranging anywhere from 2 to 10 inches are possible.
However, light accumulations are also possible with the
northeast Catskills, western Mohawk Valley, and Southern Greens.
Based on the latest 13z run of the NBM, we have medium to high
confidence (40 to 70%) in at least 7 inches of snow mainly
across northern Herkimer County. However, there`s also medium to
high confidence (40 to nearly 100%) in at least 4 inches of snow
across all of the Southwest Adirondacks and western Mohawk
Valley. Therefore, in collaboration with neighboring offices and with
the greatest confidence in moderate to heavy snowfall resulting
from lake effect snow bands, along with orographic enhancement,
we have issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of Herkimer County.
Should confidence increase in at least 7 inches of snow in
Hamilton County, the Watch could be expanded in future forecast
iterations. It is also important to note that the strong cold
advection along with the steep pressure gradient will make for
gusty conditions Thursday and Friday. In fact, there`s a 20 to
60% chance for wind gusts to exceed 45 mph, per the latest LREF,
across portions of the Southwest Adirondacks, Lake George
Region, Mohawk Valley, Eastern Catskills, Southern Greens,
Berkshires, and Taconics. Therefore, not only will Wind
Advisories possibly be needed, but blowing snow will be a
concern. Blowing snow paired with heavy snowfall rates will pose
a significant hindrance to visibility, potentially
significantly impacting travel for the Thanksgiving holiday and
the Friday morning and evening commutes. We will be monitoring
this element of the forecast closely and messaging appropriately
for holiday travel preparations.

With high pressure in place Saturday, dry conditions will be
reinforced regionwide and linger into at least part of the night
Saturday night. However, another storm system threatens the
return of widespread precipitation for the end of the weekend
and possibly into the beginning of the work week next week.
There is a lot of uncertainty pertaining to this system at this
lead time, however, so we did not deviate from the latest NBM
solution.

Temperatures throughout the long term period will be below
normal for the most part after the passage of the aforementioned
cold front. Highs Thursday will be the warmest with values in
the upper 20s to low 40s. Friday and Saturday`s highs will be
fairly similar with mid 20s to near 40. Sunday`s values will
then be similar to, though a few degrees cooler than, Thursday.
Lows throughout the period will largely be in the upper 10s to
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00z Wednesday...Increasing cirrus canopy expected
tonight with VFR conditions prevailing at ALB and POU. Some
intermittent MVFR vis from patchy fog cannot be ruled out at
GFL between 03 - 07 UTC before clouds lower/thicken enough to
reduce the chance for fog. Not enough confidence to include MVFR
vis at PSF but will monitor trends. If temperatures drop enough
this evening before cloud coverage increases, we may need to
add an amendment.

Clouds continue to lower and thicken through the morning into
the early afternoon hours before cigs drop to 2500-3500 ft as
rain showers arrives from southwest to northeast by 20 - 22
UTC. Rain turns steady shortly after arriving and likely leads
to MVFR vis towards the end of the TAF period for ALB, PSF, and
POU. Otherwise, light and variable winds tonight become
southerly tomorrow morning and increase to 5-8kts with gusts up
to 15-20kts mainly at ALB and PSF.


Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 34 kts. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ032-038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...37
SHORT TERM...37
LONG TERM...37
AVIATION...31