655
FXUS61 KALY 261922
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
322 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring widespread showers, with scattered
thunderstorms mainly south of Albany this evening into tonight.
Some storms may be severe and produce locally heavy rainfall.
Cooler and drier conditions will occur Thursday into Friday as
high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Diffuse front moving across the SE part of the area resulting
in a shift to westerly winds and lowering dewpoints in its wake.
Dewpoints have dropped into the mid/upper 50s well behind the
front with lower/mid 60s just behind it. The front will likely
not get much farther south and will be the focus for strong to
severe convection moving east from SW NY and northern PA this
evening. Guidance has trended towards shifting timing of showers
and storms arriving later and during the evening ~7 PM to 12 AM
and has a pretty good handle on the short wave disturbance
upstream. This disturbance and associated surface cold front
resulting in the forcing is still well back to the west across
E. Michigan/Lake Huron, and will track E-SE across our area
during the evening through early overnight hours.

A warm and increasingly moist air mass will be in place just
ahead of this system. Strong forcing and sufficient moisture
(PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV) are expected to lead to
numerous showers, with a better chance of thunderstorms south of
Albany. The CAMs are focusing in on areas south of Albany for a
line/cluster of stronger storms to move through, which
coincides with where the best instability is expected to
develop. HREF showing ~700-1200 J/Kg MUCAPE across the E.
Catskills, mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, S. Berkshire and
Litchfield Hills. this evening, with < 500 J/Kg farther north up
to around Albany. This is where the best chance for severe
storms is south of Albany where the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
outlook has been expanded slightly north/east. The main threat
would be damaging wind gusts due to sufficient
instability/buoyancy to balance the strong shear (0-6 km bulk
shear of 40-50 kt) and steep low level lapse rates. There is a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) around the I-90 corridor, with not
much of a threat north of I-90. Due to increasing PWATs, there
will be efficient rainfall which could lead urban/poor drainage
flooding and isolated flash flooding where any repeated
downpours occur. Fast storm motions should mitigate the overall
flash flood threat. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of
excessive rainfall across the entire area.

The storm threat should end by around 11 PM to 1 AM, although
stratiform showers could linger well into the night as a weak
wave of low pressure develops along the cold front. The entire
system should clear the area by sunrise. With cooler air
starting to filter in late, low temperatures are expected to
range from the mid/upper 50s in the higher terrain to lower/mid
60s in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A few light showers may north of I-90 Thu morning along the
southern fringe of another short wave tracking east across
southern Quebec. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies should give way
to increasing sunshine during the afternoon as subsidence
strengthens associated with high pressure building east from the
Great Lakes. Decent mixing should develop Thu afternoon,
resulting NW winds gusting 20-25 mph down the Mohawk Valley into
the Capital District, N. Taconics and Berkshires. It will
gradually become less humid, as dewpoints drop into the 50s
during the afternoon with even some 40s in the Adirondacks.
Highs will range from upper 60s in the W. Adirondacks to lower
80s in the mid Hudson Valley.

Clear and cool conditions expected Thu night, with surface high
pressure in place across the area. With an anomalously dry air
mass (PWAT anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV) in place along with
clear skies and light winds, low temperatures will be below
normal with lower/mid 40s in the mountains and upper 40s/lower
50s in the valleys.

High pressure remains over the region through much of Fri,
before starting to shift east into New England late in the day.
This will result in abundant sunshine, near normal temperatures
and light winds along with comfortable humidity levels
(dewpoints in the 40s!). High pressure moves from New England
Fri evening off the coast overnight, resulting in a southerly
flow developing around the departing high. Along with increasing
clouds, will result in milder (near normal) low temperatures
compared to Thu night, with 50s to around 60. Most of the area
will remain dry, although a few showers may develop prior to
sunrise for areas west of the Hudson Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Potentially active weather this coming weekend, as a series of
fronts move through. A warm front is expected to lift northward
across the area on Sat, with a pre-frontal trough resulting in a
high > 80% probability of showers and storms in the afternoon
and evening. Sufficient moisture should be in place with PWAT
anomalies of +2 to +3 STDEV. Magnitude of instability is in
question due to possible cloud cover and potential lack of
heating in the relative warm sector. So there is a low
confidence for strong to severe storms developing. Torrential
downpours may occur in the moisture- rich environment. A better
chance of strong to severe storms may be on Sun ahead of the
true cold front as temperatures warm above normal and greater
instability likely develops. Based on timing of the cold front
as of today, it appears the best chance would be for areas
south/east of Albany. Will continue to monitor trends.

The cold front should clear the area by Sun evening, with
cooler/drier air filtering Sun night. An upper level short wave
trough is forecast to move through on Mon, but with limited
moisture will only mention a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures look to be slightly below normal. Ridging both at
the surface and aloft then takes hold on Tue, with dry
conditions and temperatures warming back to normal. As the high
shifts east of the area on Wed, a warm/moist southerly flow
develops with a chance for showers and storms as a potential
front approaches from the NW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Flying conditions are currently VFR across the region. A
boundary moving through the region is allowing for some bkn
clouds around 6 kft, especially for the northern sites. In
addition, there are some areas of mid and high level clouds, but
no precip is occurring just yet across the area. Through the
rest of the afternoon hours, flying conditions will continue to
be VFR with sct-bkn clouds around 6 kft and some additional
clouds around 10 kft. Westerly winds will continue to be around
10 kts with some higher gusts from time to time.

An upper level disturbance will allow for a large area of
showers and thunderstorms to develop across western NY/PA and
track eastward towards the area for this evening into the first
part of tonight. The heaviest activity looks to impact southern
areas closer to KPOU/KPSF, but all areas have the potential to
see some rain and thunder, mainly between 01z and 05z. With the
heaviest thunderstorms, IFR conditions are possible (mainly for
low visibility within heavy rainfall). In addition, gusty winds
are possible (mainly at KPOU/KPSF) with westerly gusts over 30
kts possible. Will include a TEMPO to account for this activity.


Behind these showers and t-storms, it will generally be VFR for
the late night hours, although some lingering lower clouds are
possible, especially at KPOU/KPSF. Surface winds should be
lighter for the late night hours.

On Thursday, flying conditions will be VFR, although sct-bkn
cigs will remain around 3500-5000 ft. Westerly winds will
increase again to around 10 kts for all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis