985
FXUS61 KALY 301052
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
652 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Removed fog from the forecast through early this morning given
widespread stratus clouds in place. Temperatures for today and
tomorrow have trended slightly lower compared to previous forecasts
given increasing confidence in higher cloud coverage. Increased
POPs for Thursday in the southwest Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley as a warm front lifts northward.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures trend warmer than normal today through Friday
before a cold front results in a period of rain across eastern
NY and western New England on Friday. Given medium to high
confidence for total rainfall amounts to fall under 1 inch for
most areas, flooding is not anticipated.

2) Increasing confidence for temperatures to trend cooler than
normal early next week with a medium to high chance for early
morning low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday morning to
support areas of frost where the growing season remains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

One final day with overcast skies to start the day given the
persistence of ample low and mid-level moisture. As our
positively tilted ridge builds overhead this afternoon, clouds
should finally lift and give way to some breaks of sun. The
peeks of sun, weak southerly flow, and warm air mass aloft
should also help temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s
this afternoon. With dew points still elevated in the upper 50s
this evening, partial clearing lingering into the evening
should support fog development, especially in valley areas.
However, clouds look to increase overnight as a weak shortwave
tracks overhead and flattens the ridging aloft which should
keep fog patchy. An expansive closed ridge parked over the
Southeast U.S looks to build northward heading into Thursday,
sending a warm front northward through the Northeast. Sufficient
warm air and moisture advection look to occur to not only
increase cloud coverage on Thursday but also support some
scattered showers in the southwest Adirondacks and western
Mohawk Valley given topographical enhancements. The increased
cloud coverage means temperatures on Thursday have trended
slightly lower with latest NBM probabilistic guidance showing
only a 40 - 60% chance for highs to exceed 75 degrees.
Regardless, high temperatures in the 70s for early October are
still above normal and elevated dew points will also make it
feel a bit muggy. Continued cloud coverage Thursday night will
keep temperatures warm with medium to high confidence that
overnight lows remain above 60 degrees, again well above
normal.

The warm mass continues into Friday as a cold front slides
south and eastward from southern Canada into the Northeast.
Latest trends suggest this will be an ana front with the
wind shift boundary occurring on the leading edge of the
incoming rain. A rich moisture plume out of the Gulf
characterized with PWATs 3 to 3.5 standard deviation above
normal per the NAEFS becomes directed around the northern
periphery of the aforementioned ridge in the Southeast U.S and
focuses along the incoming ana cold front. The boundary tracks
from northwest to southeast Thurs night into Friday. Showers
initially look to remain hung up in the southwest Adirondacks
for a few hours Fri morning before a shortwave from the Ohio
Valley pushes eastward and helps nudge the cold front eastward.
There is increasing confidence that the most widespread showers
arrive Friday afternoon and while rain should fall steady for a
period, the fast flow aloft likely keeps it progressive with
most rain ending by Fri evening. NBM probabilistic guidance
still shows only a 15-30% chance for 24hr rainfall amounts
through 2AM Saturday to exceed 0.50" for most of eastern NY and
western New England. The exception is southern VT and the
southwest Adirondacks where there is a 50 to 75% chance that
rainfall amounts exceed 0.50" due to upslope enhancements. Very
low probabilities for rain amounts to exceed 1 inch means
flooding is not anticipated.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a stretch of near to above normal temperatures late this
week into the weekend, there is increasing confidence for a push
of chilly air to overspread the region early next week. After a
cold front marches through on Monday, an expansive area of high
pressure from the Central Plains builds eastward ushering in
below normal temperatures. There is strong consensus among
ensemble guidance that temperatures Monday night and especially
Tuesday night given favorable set-up for radiational cooling
allowing temperatures to turn quite cool. There is a 30 to 60%
chance that temperatures fall to or below 35 degrees in valley
areas where the growing season in still ongoing (focused in the
Hudson Valley). Highest confidence for the lowest temperatures
and potential frost formation remains in Hudson Valley areas
north of Albany.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z/Thu, latest satellite imagery show an expansive
stratus deck over the terminals this morning supporting
widespread MVFR cigs with IFR cigs at ALB where sfc
observations show lingering mist. Included a TEMPO group for
potential IFR cigs at GFL through 14 UTC before all cigs return
to MVFR. The stratus deck and MVFR cigs will be stubborn to
erode until between 18-21 UTC at most sites improving first at
POU with ALB/GFL/PSF thereafter. While there is medium to high
confidence in cigs improving to VFR for a period late this
afternoon into early evening, the clearing skies combined with
plenty of low-level moisture will likely support fog formation
and IFR/MVFR vis by 03 - 06 UTC at all terminals.

Light/variable winds this morning become southerly and remain
less than 5 KT through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31