869
FXUS61 KALY 072314
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
714 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rainfall continues to move into eastern New York and
western New England this afternoon and tonight. During the late
morning hours, rainfall will gradually end from west to east
and dry conditions return. Dry conditions continue through
Saturday. Seasonal high temperatures return through the next
seven days with cold overnight lows through Saturday. Widespread
frost has high chances of developing Thursday Night into Friday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

   - Widespread rainfall tonight into tomorrow morning bringing
     rainfall amounts between 0.5 to 1 inch.

Discussion:

A surface low pressure system continues to move through the
Great Lakes region into the Northeast this afternoon bringing
widespread rainfall to eastern New York and western New England
for tonight into the early morning hours tomorrow. Total
rainfall amounts are still on track to range between 0.5 inches
and 1 inch. For the southern Greens, low chances for isolated
total rainfall amounts over 1.5 inches. A cold front moves
through during the morning hours tomorrow bringing colder air
and rainfall gradually ending from west to east. By tomorrow
afternoon, dry conditions return with surface high pressure
building back in. High temperatures return to near normal
ranging in the 50s and 60s. Low temperatures tomorrow night
range in the upper 20s and mid-30s where frost conditions could
be present Wednesday night but will largely depend on the winds
as a light breeze in valley locations is currently supporting
for limited frost conditions and confined to higher terrain
locations such as the eastern Catskills and southern Greens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

 - Widespread frost Thursday night into Friday morning.

Dry conditions continue through Sunday under surface high
pressure. High temperatures range in the 50s and 60s. Low
temperatures Thursday night into Friday range in the 20s to low
30s as the center of the high pressure system is overhead. With
clear skies, calm winds, and cold temperatures, frost conditions
are favored for all of eastern New York and western New England
Thursday night into Friday morning. Confidence continues to
increase that we`ll likely have headlines out for locations
still in the growing season (everywhere outside the western
Adirondacks through October 11th).

For Sunday evening into early next week, ensemble forecast model
guidances are in good agreement for a coastal low to develop.
However, there are two scenarios that could happen with the current
forecast supporting scenario number one with the most likely
scenario. Scenario 1: The placement of the low stays south and off
the coast and we continue to see dry conditions. Scenario 2:
The placement of the low stays closer to the coast, 25% of
ensemble clusters supporting we`ll see low chances of light rain
showers. This entails that chances for light rain showers are
less than 20% for locations south and east of Albany. The
current forecast continues to support the track of the low to
stay to the south for dry conditions continuing with no
significant impacts to contribute to latest drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Flying conditions are still VFR across the region, although
clouds have overspread the region, with mainly bkn-ovc mid and
high level clouds now in place. Some showers are starting to get
close to the area and some showers may start impacting northern
terminals over the next few hours, although it will initially
remain VFR. As showers continue to become more numerous and
increase in intensity, flying conditions will lower to MVFR
(after about 05z-07z), mainly for visibility. Some brief
periods of IFR cannot be ruled out towards daybreak Wednesday
as the heaviest showers move across the area, but this will be
brief.

Showers may linger to Wednesday morning, mainly for KPSF/KPOU,
but should be ending from west to east. Some lingering MVFR
conditions are expected in the morning hours, but it will go
back to VFR by the afternoon, although skies will remain broken
around 3500-5000 ft.

South to southwest winds will be around 10 kts through much of
the overnight hours. Winds will switch to the north to northwest
with the frontal passage right around daybreak Wednesday. Winds
will be around 10 kts on Wednesday morning, but will increase
towards the afternoon and become gusty, especially at KALB.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night to Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...27