747
FXUS61 KALY 111803
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
103 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With a cold air mass returning to the region, lake effect snow
showers and breezy conditions will continue into tonight.
Despite some sunshine, cold temperatures will continue again on
Friday. A passing disturbance will bring some additional snow
showers to the region this weekend with below normal
temperatures still in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

-Narrow band of lake-effect snow continues through tonight.
 Additional accumulation of up to four inches across far
 southern Herkimer County will result in hazardous travel.

-Breezy conditions continue through tonight. Highest chance for
 strong wind gusts up to 50 mph continues for western New
 England, mainly through the evening hours.

-Below normal temperatures continues through the weekend with
 additional chances of passing snow showers and flurries.

Discussion:

As of 103 PM EST...A large upper level low is located just
north of the region over southern Quebec. Cyclonic flow is
favoring the development of narrow bands of lake effect snow
showers within the west-northwest flow over the region. Model
soundings shows a well-mixed surface layer thanks to abundant
cold air in place at low to mid levels, with inversion heights
as high as 700 mb. Radar imagery has shown these snow showers
primarily focused over the Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County,
with some of the activity even spreading into parts of the
Capital Region and the northern Catskills. Snowfall amounts will
vary across the region. While many spots will only see an
additional coating to half inch with the fast moving lake effect
snow showers, some western areas (such as south of the NYS
Thruway in far southern Herkimer County) can see 2 to 4 inches
of additional snowfall thanks to the persistent lake effect snow
showers. With hazardous travel still expected, will continue
the Winter Weather Advisory for lake effect for southern
Herkimer County through tonight. With the deep mixing and strong
pressure gradient in place, breezy conditions are expected
across the entire region. NYS Mesonet is showing frequent gusts
over 30 mph across much of the region. 3km HRRR suggests some
gusts may exceed 40 mph over the high terrain of western New
England, so will continue the Wind Advisory for Berkshire and
Litchfield County through tomorrow morning, as winds of this
strength may be capable of downing tree limbs and power lines.

Most of the lake effect activity will start to diminish during
the overnight hours, as inversion heights start to crash thanks
to an approaching area of high pressure. Otherwise, mostly
cloudy skies will start to become partly cloudy overnight. With
the relaxing pressure gradient, winds will slowly diminish
overnight as well for most of the region as well. Lows will be
cold, with values in the single digits and teens.

The below normal temps will continue into Friday with 850 hpa
temps around -12 to -15 C to start the day. Highs will only be
in the 20s to low 30s. Most areas should be dry with a partly
sunny sky, and some lingering flurries are possible for the far
western Adirondacks, as most of the lake effect activity will be
rather shallow and won`t have much of an impact. Lows will
continue to be rather cold on Friday night with min temps in the
teens once again.

Over the weekend, another northern stream disturbance will be
impacting the region, with continued cold temps. A sharp
positive-tilted upper level trough will be moving through the
area for late Saturday into Sunday. Moisture within the northern
stream will be fairly limited. There may be a coastal low that
tries to develop, but this won`t have a direct impact on our
weather, as the postive-tilted nature of the upper level trough
will keep any developing surface features well south and east of
the region. Latest NBM suggest much of the area may see a
coating of snow, but probabilities over an inch are under 50
percent across the entire area (highest probabilities are across
far southern areas closer to the developing surface low). Have
keep POP values close to the NBM with the highest chance on
Saturday night into early Sunday. Temps will remain chilly, with
Saturday highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows in the teens.
Temps on Sunday behind the departing storm will mainly only be
in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A gradual pattern shift is expected through the long term
period and latest guidance suggests only limited amounts of
precip are expected through mid week.

Temps will rather frigid to start the week, with daytime highs
only in the 20s on Monday and lows in the teens. It will feel
even colder on Monday with gusty northwesterly winds especially
over the Berkshires and Catskills, where the NBM shows over a
50% chance for gusts to top out over 40 mph. Another northern
stream clipper could bring a few more passing snow showers on
Monday night or early Tuesday as well, but moisture is still
limited, so this probably won`t amount to much.

After another cold day on Tuesday, some moderate is finally
expected by Wednesday into Thursday as the flow becomes more
southerly. Daytime temps may return back into the 30s and
possibly even the 40s for valley areas by Thursday. An
approaching warm front could return some light precip to area by
late Wednesday night or Thursday as well. While some snow or
mixed precip is possible at the onset, the rising temps and
warming temps aloft suggest that many areas (especially valleys)
may just see plain rain, although this is a ways out, so plenty
could change in the guidance by then. However, there seems to be
enough signs in the guidance that a pattern change back towards
more seasonable temps will be happening for the latter portion
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18z Friday...Primarily VFR conditions are expected at
the terminals with a mix of low and mid level clouds, as
cyclonic flow remains entrenched across the region. Very brief
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions could occur early this afternoon
mainly at KALB/KPSF due to lake effect/upslope snow showers.
This threat will diminish this evening as snow showers drift
south of the terminals. It will remain quite breezy at the
terminals with gusts around 25-40 kts this afternoon. Expect
winds to diminish tonight with the exception of KPSF, where
gusts around 20-30 kts are expected through Friday morning.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.



&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for NYZ038.
MA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...17