581
FXUS61 KALY 131830
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
230 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Some adjustments to hourly PoPs with the rain ending with the
low pressure system and the approach of the cold front from
eastern Great lakes Region and the St Lawrence River Valley
with showers and t-storms late this pm/tonight. A Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 5) was placed over a small area of the western
Mohawk Valley with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) predominately
north and west of the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and
NW CT.

Continued colder min temps Mon night/Tue morning, where some
patchy to areas of frost are possible in the west/southwest
Adirondacks and a Frost Advisory may be needed for Hamilton and
and northern Herkimer Counties, if confidence increases for
areas to widespread frost.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms
mainly areas north and west of the Capital Region and southern
VT late this afternoon and into this evening. A few storms
could be severe producing damaging winds and/or large hail.

2) It will be a mostly dry and cool start to the week with
below normal temps before moderating above normal with the next
chance of showers/t-storms late Wed into Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The showers continue to exit the Berkshires and NW CT early this
afternoon with the wave of low pressure and the mid level
trough. The warm front never made it through and will wash out,
as a cold front quickly approaches from the west. Cloud cover is
abundant now, but has begun to thin over the western Dacks and
western Mohawk Valley. The best SBCAPE on the SPC RAP
Mesoanalysis is over these areas presently in the 500-1000
J/kg range. The latest 12Z HREFs continues to the show mean
SBCAPEs 750-1250 J/kg mainly west of western New England late
this afternoon into early tonight with lesser amounts over
western New England in the 300-750 J/kg range. The clouds/lower
stratus will have to clear quickly for destabilization to occur
by the mid to late pm over eastern NY/western New England. The
0-6 km shear is 35-40 KT and slightly stronger upstream of the
forecast area. Mid level lapse rates are relatively weak to
marginal into tonight in the 5-6.5 C/km. However, a strong mid
and upper level jet streak is approaching western NY and
southeast Ontario by 00Z/Mon. Low-level moisture is still in
place with dewpoints in the 60s and PWATS ranging 1.3-1.8"
across the region. The cold front will be the focus for any
thunderstorms. The CAMs continue to struggle with the coverage
and extent of any strong to potentially severe thunderstorms.
However, the latest 3-km HRRR/3-km NAM/WRF-ARW do have some
discrete organized cells form into a cluster/broken line and
approach the western Mohawk Valley/southwest Dacks and Schoharie
Valley towards 23Z/7 pm and 01Z/9 pm and then weaken towards
the Greater Capital Region/Lake George Saratoga Region/Taconics
prior to midnight likely due to waning/lessening instability
supporting taller updrafts.

SPC continues the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for most of the
area north and west of the Mid-Hudson Valley/southern
Taconics/NW CT and did upgrade a small area of the western
Mohawk Valley (southern Herkimer/western Montgomery/northwest
Schoharie) to Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). Damaging winds would
be the main threat especially with stronger winds aloft and the
DCAPE values on some of the CAMS in these areas 750-1000 J/kg.
Isolate severe hail is also possible in the Slight Risk area. The
scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
diminish between midnight to 3 am or so from northwest to
southeast across the forecast area. It will become cool and
breezy behind the front. Lows fall back into the 50s, except
some mid and upper 40s over the southern Dacks, southern Greens
and northern Catskills.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Strong cold advection occurs in the wake of the front through
Monday morning. Deeper mixing and momentum transfer will allow
for northwest winds 10-15 mph with some gusts 20-30 mph. The
NBM/NBM90 winds/wind gusts were used for Monday. Temps were
lowered slightly from the NBM closer to MAVMOS guidance with max
temps running about 5 degrees or so below normal with upper 60s
to lower 70s in the valleys and upper 50s to mid 60s over the
higher terrain. The winds should diminish quickly in the late pm
and early evening, as a sfc anticyclone moves over upstate NY
and western New England. Clear skies and calm winds will promote
ideal radiational cooling conditions with lows falling into the
30s and 40s. The mid and upper 30s will be mainly over the
southern Dacks, upper Hudson Valley, southern Greens and
northern Catskills, where patchy to localized areas of frost
are possible. A frost advisory may be needed for Hamilton and
northern Herkimer counties, if coverage and confidence increases
for Mon Night/Tue morning.

Slightly below normal to seasonable temps and dry weather
continues on Tuesday with the sfc high slowly retreating. Temps
rise to near to slightly above normal readings by Wed. A cold
front brings the next chance of showers and a few thunderstorms
Wed night into Thu across eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...IFR conditions prevail across all terminals
this afternoon, though latest visible satellite imagery indicates
improvements swiftly approaching behind this morning`s area of rain.
Breaks in cloud coverage are expected to coincide with rises in base
heights such that MVFR to VFR ceilings develop for a short time this
afternoon. With an incoming cold front, however, the chances for
isolated showers and thunderstorms return late this afternoon into
this evening. Based on latest guidance, the more likely sites to see
any additional convection will be GFL and ALB. Therefore, PROB30
groups were added to their TAF between 23-02z and 01-04z
respectively. Confidence is fairly high that POU should not see any
additional rain or thunder through the remainder of the TAF period
so followed the guidance in trending their conditions along a
gradual improvement. There is low confidence in whether PSF will see
a shower or thunderstorm late this evening. Some of the guidance
indicates a storm or two moving into the terminal boundary between
roughly 02-04z. However, other models depict any storms collapsing
before reaching PSF. Given already limited instability will be
significantly waning by that point, we have decided to remove PSF`s
PROB30 for thunderstorms. We will monitor trends over the next
several hours and make amendments where necessary.

Winds begin light out of the south to southeast this afternoon at
sustained speeds under 10 kt. However, once the passage of the cold
front occurs tonight, winds will veer to the northwest and increase
slightly. By mid-morning tomorrow, wind magnitudes will reach 10-
13kt with gusts of 18-22kt. Additionally, any thunderstorm that
crosses through ALB or GFL will be capable of producing brief gusty
winds up to 35kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...12