231
FXUS61 KALY 311915
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
315 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable afternoon high temperatures through the middle of
this week with cooler temperatures for the end of the week. Dry
conditions are favored through midweek, with increasing chances
(50-70 percent) for widespread precipitation towards the end of
this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure continues to bring dry and pleasant
conditions to eastern New York and western New England. Fair
weather cumulus clouds have developed this afternoon at high
terrain locations and move southward across eastern New York and
western New England before diminishing tonight. Patchy fog has
potential to develop again tonight in river valley locations as
well as the southern Adirondacks. A chilly night is still in
store for the southern Adirondacks as mostly clear skies
contribute to overnight low temperatures in the low 40s and
upper 30s. Confidence for the southern Greens, Berkshires, and
eastern Catskills is not as high for temperatures to fall below
40 degrees as increasing clouds from our south move in late
tonight into tomorrow morning before sunrise. Nevertheless, lows
tonight are still chilly ranging in the upper 40s to low 50s.

For tomorrow, dry conditions continue under surface high
pressure, but we`ll see more mostly cloudy to partly sunny
skies during the morning and afternoon hours. Otherwise another
beautiful day is in store for Labor Day and the first day of
meteorological fall with high temperatures ranging in the 70s.
By tomorrow night, cloud coverage decreases and another chilly
night is in store with lows in the 40s and 50s. For Tuesday, dry
conditions continue outside of low chances (less than 30
percent) for a light rain shower across the southern
Adirondacks. Otherwise, dry conditions continue on Tuesday and
Wednesday under surface high pressure. High temperatures
tomorrow through Wednesday range in the 70s, with a few valley
locations reaching into the low 80s.

Unsettled weather conditions are favored to return Thursday
night by latest ensemble forecast model guidances as a strong
upper level trough could move from the Great Lakes region to the
Northeast. Ensemble forecast models continue to fluctuate on
the arrival timing of moisture from the south and a low pressure
system arriving from the Great Lakes region bringing a cold
front to eastern New York and western New England so continue to
monitor the latest forecasts as we get closer to Thursday.
Latest probabilistic forecast model guidances keep precipitation
chances for a widespread rainfall between 50 and 70 percent for
Thursday night into Friday. Confidence in precipitation amounts
from Thursday night to Friday night greater than 0.5 inches
continues to increase as probabilities have increased to between
60 and 70 percent. Precipitation amounts greater than 1 inch
at this forecast period are between 40 and 50 percent based on
latest probabilistic forecast guidance. As the first week of
September brings the first day back to school for many school
districts across eastern New York and western New England,
Friday is looking to be a rainy day and you may want to bring a
rain jacket or umbrella with you when heading outdoors. High
temperature fall below normal Thursday and Friday with highs in
the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...VFR conditions are primarily expected for the
terminals for the upcoming TAF cycle, as high pressure continues to
slowly move east over the region. The exception will be KGFL as
patchy fog/mist develops in the terminal vicinity after midnight,
which will result in MVFR visibilities. Mist/fog will also be
possible at KALB/KPSF, though confidence on direct impacts to the
terminals is low at this time. Northeast winds around 5-10 kts
through the afternoon will become light & variable this evening into
tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
DISCUSSION...Webb
AVIATION...Speck