468
FXUS61 KALY 141049
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
649 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued trend from previous forecasts of cooler temps than
NBM for tonight, and also increased wind/wind gusts for today
given cold air advective regime/deep mixing and pressure rises
in wake of cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Autumn-like cooling for today and tonight with below normal
temperatures, with patchy frost possible across portions of SW
Adirondacks.

2) Moderating temperatures for mid to late week with
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Much cooler air mass will overspread the region today into
tonight in the wake of cold frontal passage. The combination of
decent pressure rises amid cold air advection and deep mixing
should allow for gusty northwest winds at times today reaching
25-30 mph. Max temps will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s in
valleys, and only 50s to lower 60s across higher higher peaks of
the Adirondacks and southern VT.

As high pressure builds overhead tonight, winds will trend to
calm amid the cool and very dry airmass with PWAT`s dropping to
0.40"-0.50" (-1 to -2 SD), allowing for strong radiational
cooling to commence after sunset. Low temperatures by daybreak
Tuesday should fall into the 40s for most areas, except mid to
upper 30s across portions of the southern Adirondacks/southern
VT and eastern Catskills. Some patchy frost is expected in the
more sheltered areas within the SW Adirondacks and possibly
eastern Catskills. However, coverage potential for frost looks
isolated at this time, therefore no frost advisory issuance.
Nevertheless, those with sensitive plants/vegetation may want to
take precautions in these areas as min temps drop into the
mid/upper 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temps should rebound quickly by midweek, as strong mid level
ridging builds into the region. Max temps should reach at least
into the 70s, with some possibility (30-70%) for valley areas
near and south of Albany to reach near or above 80 Wed/Thu.

A weak cold front approaching from the north could trigger
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into
Thursday, although there remains uncertainty regarding potential
coverage of showers/storms, and also placement of highest
chances, which will be tied to the actual frontal location which
could stall somewhere across the region during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z/Tue, mainly VFR conditions are expected through
early this evening despite some patchy Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL.
Patchy ground fog will develop late tonight, though there is
uncertainty regarding how much extends to the TAF sites. Highest
confidence for at least intermittent IFR/LIFR Vsbys/Cigs after
08Z/Tue will be at KGFL and KPSF. However, as a light northeast
wind develops around daybreak, some fog could also drift off the
Mohawk River and impact KALB. Should this occur, a period of
IFR/LIFR Vsbys/Cigs would occur at KALB (most likely after
10Z/Tue).

West to northwest winds will increase to 8-12 KT early this
morning with some gusts up to 20-25 KT possible. These winds
and gusts should then persist through late afternoon, before
decreasing to 5-10 KT toward sunset, and becoming light/variable
to calm between 03Z-06Z/Tue.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24/15
AVIATION...24