493
FXUS61 KALY 021710
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
110 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 1026 AM EDT...The morning patchy fog has diminished with
strong subsidence from the surface anticyclone yielding
sunny/mostly sunny skies. Few-sct cumulus popping up over the
southern Dacks with residual cold pool with upper low. Mid-level
lapse rates are not as steep on the 12Z KALY sounding compared
to the 00Z sounding. The PWAT remains dry for early Sept at
0.75". The morning fog was removed from the forecast and some
changes to cloud cover with isolated showers/thunderstorms over
the Adirondacks. Temps trended based on observations and
seasonable temps for max temps are on track.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring seasonable temperatures and
mainly dry weather this afternoon through Wednesday. A weak upper
level disturbance may trigger an isolated shower or thunderstorm
across the southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont this afternoon.
A cold front and a strong upper level disturbance will bring
showers and a few thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon into
Friday with cooler temperatures for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 AM EDT, thick veil of high clouds slowly shifting
north and west, with back edge just south of I-90. Expect
clearing to slowly advance north and west  over the next few
hours. However, given relatively moist boundary layer, as the
clearing takes hold, temps will cool down more rapidly toward
dewpoints, allowing patchy fog to develop. Will have to watch
trends through daybreak as locally dense fog will be possible,
particularly river valleys near and south of I-90.

Once any fog/low clouds lift after sunrise, expect mostly sunny
skies and warmer temps compared to Monday. Across portions of
the southern Adirondacks and southern VT, colder temps
aloft/better instability and some lift from upper level low
drifting northward could promote isolated showers/thunderstorms
this afternoon, where slight chance/low chance (20-30%) are
indicated. Afternoon max temps should reach around 80 within
valley areas, and lower/mid 70s across higher elevations.

Mainly clear for tonight and again Wednesday night with patchy
fog developing, particularly within river valleys. Lows both
nights in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s.

Another mostly sunny and warm day expected for Wednesday,
although an isolated shower/thunderstorm can not be completely
ruled out across the southern Adirondacks. Afternoon high temps
around 80 in valleys and 70-75 across higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- Beneficial rainfall possible (30-80%) late Thursday afternoon
  into Friday morning, especially areas west of I-87.

- Patchy frost possible (30-60%) across portions of the SW
  Adirondacks, eastern Catskills and southern VT Sunday night-
  Monday morning.

Deep upper level trough digs into Great Lakes region for later
this week. Initial cold front approaches from the west Thursday
afternoon or night, passing east of the region Friday morning.
Guidance favors a band of showers/embedded thunderstorms
along/ahead of this front, although band may tend to weaken with
eastward extent as it outruns better instability and moisture
transport. Nevertheless, statistical guidance suggests the
potential for highly beneficial rain across portions of eastern
New York/western New England, with 01Z/02 NBM24-hour probs for
>0.50" ending 8 AM Friday 40-80% for areas west of I-87.
Similar probs ending 8 PM Friday are a bit less, 40-50% west of
I-87 and 20-40% to the east. Chances for >1" rain during these
periods are much less, maxing at 20-40% west of I-87 through 8
AM Friday, so odds are favoring moderate rainfall at this time,
mainly west of I-87.

Another upper level disturbance and reinforcing cold front looks
to track across the region Saturday, although timing remains
uncertain. Should this front pass through Saturday afternoon
during peak heating, there could be some thunderstorms,
especially areas south/east of the Capital Region.

In the wake of this second front, much cooler temps will filter
into the region. In fact, 01Z/NBM 24-hour probs for min temps
<36 degrees ending 8 AM Monday are 20-60+% across the SW
Adirondacks, higher elevations of southern VT, and the eastern
Catskills, suggesting at least patchy frost possible across the
areas late Sunday night/Monday morning. Elsewhere, expect min
temps in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s, likely the coldest
morning of the season thus far.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through this
afternoon with FEW to SCT cumulus ranging from 4-6 kft and
variable winds generally less than 5 knots. Clear skies and calm
winds will allow for patchy IFR fog to develop at KGFL/KPSF from
06z-12z. Any fog that develops is expected to dissipate by 13Z
and VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts of 25-30 mph possible Thursday,
along with RH values possibly as low as 35-45% Thursday
afternoon...

Tightening low level pressure gradient ahead of approaching cold
front will allow south to southeast winds to increase Thursday
afternoon to 10-20 mph, with some gusts of 25-30 mph possible,
especially within north-south oriented valleys. In addition, RH
values could briefly fall as low as 35-45 percent Thursday
afternoon.

A wetting rainfall is likely Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KL
SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Humphrey
FIRE WEATHER...KL