433
FXUS61 KALY 220009
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
809 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Tornado Watch #507 cancelled. Reduced rainfall chances for the
next few hours across most of southern VT, western MA, and eastern
NY outside of the mid Hudson Valley and SE Catskills given
current radar trends.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional showers/thunderstorms across western NYS will
track eastward later this evening, though should be weakening
in intensity, with showers/storms with locally heavy rain
redeveloping across portions of the mid Hudson Valley, SE
Catskills and NW CT later this evening.

2) Tranquil weather with temperatures trending slightly above normal
Thursday into this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

As of 8 PM EDT, band of showers/storms associated with warm
advective regime has shifted mainly east of the region. However,
additional isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms across
NE PA will continue expanding northeast this evening. Additional
locally heavy downpours will be possible with these as they
expand into the mid Hudson Valley, SE Catskills and NW CT
region.

Elsewhere, showers/thunderstorms across western NY will
continue tracking east/northeast, reaching the SW Adirondacks
and western Mohawk Valley later this evening, and possibly as
far east as the Capital Region, Schoharie County and Lake George
region toward or just after midnight. Although can not rule out
some spotty gusty winds with this convection, widespread severe
weather looks unlikely given loss of diurnal heating.
Patchy/areas of fog may develop overnight, especially in areas
which received prior locally heavy rainfall.

The warm sector shifts eastward tomorrow as the main cold front
and trough axis swings into the Northeast. Given the early
arrival of the cold front pushing into the eastern NY by 15 - 18
UTC, the highest chance for the warm sector to have enough time
to destabilize before the strongest forcing arrives look to be
in areas mainly east of the Hudson River, especially in western
New England. The latest Day 2 SPC Outlook continues to place a
marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather in southern
Berkshire and Litchfield Counties where there is a favorable
overlap of 500-1000J/kg of SB CAPE and 40-45kts of deep layer
shear. Latest CAMs shows an initial line of showers developing
along the incoming cold front late morning that grows upscale
into line segments and storm clusters as it enters western New
England and the more unstable environment mainly after 17-18
UTC. Damaging winds will also again be the main hazard through
late afternoon before the front finally pushes eastward into
New England. Otherwise, humidity will trend downwards behind
the cold front from west to east through the day with clearing
skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We will enjoy a stretch of pleasant and dry weather Thursday
through this weekend as high pressure builds overhead.
Temperatures trend upwards Friday into the weekend as high
pressure builds off shore promoting southwesterly return flow
but we do not expect oppressive heat. Another shortwave
approaches late this weekend into early next week but there is
still uncertainty on timing and placement of any showers or
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR to MVFR conditions begin the 22/00z TAF period. Between 1z and
6z, MVFR to IFR ceilings begin and continue through the 9-12z
timeframe. For MVFR to IFR visibilities due to fog development is
likely at KPSF between 3z and 6z before stratus clouds become more
dominate and decrease fog development. Otherwise after 12z, ceilings
gradually improve back to VFR and continue through the end of the
TAF period. Winds continue to be light and variable into the
overnight hours before becoming westerly ranging between 10 and 15
knots for tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24/31
AVIATION...05