848
FXUS61 KALY 160535
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1235 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 635 PM EST, rain and embedded thunderstorms tracking
eastward across Mohawk Valley and eastern Catskills and
approaching the Capital Region. Overall tendency has been for CG
lightning to decrease as forcing outruns best instability,
however we have increased coverage for slight chance of thunder
as far east as I-87 through this evening.

Thunderstorms earlier were producing rainfall rates as high as
1"/hour across central NYS per NY Mesonet, but have trended down
to ~0.35"/hour or less. Still, some brief heavy downpours and
rumbles of thunder will remain possible for areas mainly west of
I-87 and near/south of I-90 for the next 1-2 hours. We did have
one report of less than pea-size hail near West Winfield in
southern Herkimer County shortly before 6 PM with stronger storm
earlier.

Temps have dropped to around freezing across portions of the
southern Adirondacks, and expect areas of freezing rain to occur
within the advisory area.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving across northern New York will bring
precipitation this evening into Sunday. Parts of the southern
Adirondacks, Upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont will see
freezing rain. Elsewhere, rain is expected. Additionally, the
western Mohawk Valley and the eastern Catskills may get a rumble of
thunder. Behind the storm, chilly and blustery conditions then
arrive for Sunday through Monday with lake effect and upslope snow
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

- Moderate to high confidence in a period of freezing rain late
  this afternoon into tonight for parts of the Adirondacks,
  Upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont. A Winter Weather
  Advisory is in effect for these areas starting between 4 PM
  and 7 PM today through 1 AM tonight.

- Increasing confidence for gusty winds and lake effect/upslope
  snow showers Sunday through Monday which can result in reduced
  visibility. There is a 50 to 90% chance for 24 hour maximum
  wind gusts Saturday night through Sunday night to exceed 40mph
  mainly down the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital District into
  western MA.

Discussion:

Surface Low pressure over the upper Great Lakes will is forecast to
move southeast to north of Lake Ontario by late this evening and
then eastward to the Maine Coast by Sunday morning. The system is
associated with a deepening 500mb short wave moving southeast from
central Canada. Warm air and moisture advection ahead of the sfc
warm front has allowed a precipitation shield to develop over
western and central NY with some embedded thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms are related to elevated cape. As the storm moves
eastward, the steep mid level lapse rates look to get pinched
off reaching to the western and southwestern parts of the
forecast area. Best chance for any rumbles of thunder look to be
across the western Mohawk Valley and the eastern Catskills.

The leading edge of the precipitation shield reaches western areas
around sunset and given dry air noted on forecast soundings in the
925 - 800hPa layer, wet-bulbing processes will cool the column.
While most areas will be mild enough to support plain rain, sfc
temperatures in the southern Adirondacks and parts of the Upper
Hudson Valley and southern Green Mountains likely cool towards or
even a few degrees under freezing as precipitation begins,
supporting freezing rain. After this initial drop in temperature at
the start of the precipitation, temperatures are forecast to
gradually rise overnight to above freezing all areas. Total ice from
freezing rain still expected to range from a light glaze up to tenth
of an inch or so (highest amounts across the highest terrain of the
southern Adirondacks and southern Greens) as the short duration of
cold air should limit ice accretion amounts.

The warm sector is quite impressive with a notable 40-50kt jet in
the 900-800hPa layer directing a moisture rich and mild plume into
the Northeast with PWATs nearing 1" and 850hPa isotherms +6C to +9C.
Expecting this moisture rich and dynamic system to produce a period
of steady rain through about 06 UTC before the best forcing exits to
our east.

By sunrise Sunday expecting a sharp wind shift to the west-
northwest as the cold front swings through the Northeast before
sunrise. Strong push of cold air advection combined with a
tightening sfc pressure gradient will support a well-mixed boundary
layer and blustery winds with temperatures falling through the day.
In fact, latest probabilistic guidance from the NBM shows a 40 to
90% chance for 24 hour maximum wind gusts Saturday night through
Sunday night to exceed 40mph with the highest values focused down
the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital District into western MA due to
channeled flow. There is a low chance that we will need wind
advisory for these areas mainly for the daytime on Sunday.

Besides the gusty winds, the incoming cold air mass will lead to a
lake effect and upslope snow response. Guidance suggests the
potential for a multi-lake connection with single lake effect bands
extending well inland off Lake Ontario. The west-northwest flow
direction should keep the lake bands mainly south of I-90 and
directed more into the northern and eastern Catskills. Some bands
can even extend into parts of Hudson Valley and as far east as
western New England. Even without any lake bands, the strong
westerly flow will likely support upslope snow along the spine of
the Greens and the Taconics. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance
limits 2"+ snow amounts to the western Adirondacks (mainly near and
north of Route 28) but the exact placement and duration/intensity of
any lake band will determine snow amounts, especially Sunday
afternoon and evening when inversion heights rise and the column
turns cold enough to support snow accumulations for areas outside of
higher elevations. The gusty winds will likely result in reduced
visibility during any snow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect and upslope snow looks to continue into Monday owing to
cold, moist cyclonic flow. Chilly temperatures and gusty winds
continue as well. Although 850mb temps gradually rise and a drier
more anticyclonic flow begins to build in on Tuesday, there may
still be some snow shower activity over the western Mohawk Valley
and southwestern Adirondacks as the flow remains off of Lake Ontario.

Subsidence finally builds overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday  as
the trough gradually exits to our east and sfc high pressure builds
in. This will support drier weather heading into the middle of the
week and temperatures remain slightly cooler than normal. Milder
unsettled weather looks to return for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06z Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions prevail early this
morning as widespread rainfall continues across much of the region.
This stratiform axis of rain will begin to shift out of our area to
the east over the next couple of hours as a warm front tracks
through Eastern New York and western New England, but elevated low-
level moisture will maintain less than ideal flying conditions with
lowered ceiling heights throughout the remainder of the overnight
period for most. As the cold front associated with the ongoing
system begins its swift passage through the region, ceilings will
begin to lift, becoming VFR by about mid morning or early
afternoon. Rising ceilings will be met with winds becoming gusty
out of the northwest with sustained speeds ranging from about 15 to
20 kt and gusts reaching 20 to 35 kt. Lake effect and upslopes snow
showers will develop behind the departing system this afternoon,
potentially forcing the return to MVFR and IFR conditions primarily
at KALB and KPSF but a brief period of snow showers cannot be ruled
out at KGFL this afternoon. Finally, low-level wind shear is
anticipated to impact the KALB terminal between about 10-14z this
morning courtesy of a passing low-level jet.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Monday for NYZ032.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
     Monday for NYZ033.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Monday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

UPDATE...24
SYNOPSIS...09
SHORT TERM...09/31
LONG TERM...09/31
AVIATION...37