744
FXUS61 KALY 311753
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
153 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added some patchy fog for late tonight for northern valley areas
due to the combination of recent rainfall, decreasing clouds and
light to calm winds.

Have lowered POPs slightly for Monday and Tuesday. With limited
moisture in place, only spotty showers are expected (mainly for
eastern areas on Monday afternoon).

Have blended some additional guidance along with the NBM for
temps on Tuesday and Wednesday. Valley areas should be in the
mid 70s Tuesday and mid to upper 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A fast moving upper level disturbance will allow for some
passing rain showers and possible thunderstorms late today into
tonight from north to south. While a quick downpour will be
possible, no strong storms or flooding rainfall is expected.

2) With mainly dry conditions in place, temperatures will be
steadily climbing this week and will likely be above normal by
the late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The main upper level low associated with a large trough is
closed off and located over Atlantic Canada. Yesterday`s storm
system is well off the coast is exiting off to the east, while
the next disturbance rotating around the main upper level low is
currently over Quebec. This feature, along with an associated
surface cold front, will be dropping southward towards our area
for late today into tonight.

Visible satellite imagery shows widespread mid and upper level
clouds have already overspread the area from the north,
allowing for mostly cloudy skies. Radar imagery shows a few
light showers and sprinkles moving southward towards the
Adirodnacks and Lake George Saratoga Region. With dry air in
place at low levels, these initial showers may not be reaching
the ground, but the chance for precip will be increased over the
next few hours.

The latest 3km HRRR suggests these showers will organize along a
broken line just ahead of the approaching surface cold front and
drop southward for this evening. Most areas will see a short
period of showers, although there could be brief moderate bursts
of rain with this activity due to the decent forcing. Moisture
isn`t abundant, so rainfall won`t last too long or be too heavy,
but a quick tenth to quarter inch of rain can`t be ruled out,
especially for northern areas. CAMs suggest there could be some
small amounts of instability (SBCAPE under 300 J/kg), so a
rumble of thunder can`t be ruled out within the heaviest
showers, but no strong storms are expected due to low amounts of
instability, low dewpoints and shallow nature of the convection.
Still, with a well-mixed lower portion of the atmosphere, any
shower or t-storm could have a brief wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
at the onset of precip.

As the front drops southward and the forcing moves away, most
areas will be done with any precip by Midnight or so. Some
clearing should occur behind the front, so some patchy fog may
develop for northern areas due to the decreasing clouds and
light to calm winds.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The upper level trough will remain overhead on Monday, but
moisture will be fairly limited. A few diurnally forced showers
could develop during the afternoon, mainly for the Taconics or
western New England, but coverage looks fairly isolated and
lower compared to recent model runs. With the lower heights and
cool temps aloft, highs will continue to be below normal for
Monday, with mainly 60s to low 70s for highs in valley areas.

The upper level trough will start lifting out by Tuesday. Models
aren`t showing as much diurnal showers for Tuesday, so will
have a dry forecast for Tuesday with temps starting to improve
by a few degrees with high temps closer to normal with a partly
sunny sky. Dewpoints will continue to be rather low, so it will
remain very comfortable.

Ridging will be building into the area from the west for
Wednesday and Thursday as an Omega Block sets up over the CONUS,
with a closed low over the western Atlantic Ocean. Temps will be
warming aloft, with 850 hpa temps expected to be as warm as +11
to +14 C by Thursday. NBM shows high probability (about 80 to 95
percent) for valley areas to exceed 80 degrees on Thursday,
although the probability for reaching 90 in still fairly low for
everywhere except the mid Hudson Valley. Dewpoints will start
creeping up slightly, but still won`t be too high with values in
the mid 40s to low 50s on Thursday. Still, it will be a change
for the recent cooler weather and with average temps still in
the mid 70s, it appears that a warm up above normal looks to
occur.

Some warmer and more humid weather is possible by Friday and
Saturday, although models are starting to show some differences
compared to previous runs. NBM does show 30-60% for valley
areas to reach 90 degrees on Friday and Saturday, but the
latest GFS and GGEM show some lowering heights and cooling aloft
thanks to an approaching disturbance within the westerly flow
aloft. In addition, some passing showers or possible
thunderstorms would be possible with this setup as well. Will
continue to monitor model trends, but the total extent and
duration of the upcoming warm up is still in question at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18z Monday...Flying conditions are VFR at all terminals as
of 1:10 PM EDT. Within the next couple of hours, areas of showers
are expected to develop and drop southwards through the area. Within
these showers, low-end MVFR vsbys will be possible, but VFR
conditions expected outside of any showers. A few rumbles of thunder
can`t be ruled out either, but confidence is not high enough to
include in the TAF. Showers should taper off this evening , by
around 02-04z at GFL/ALB and 03-06z at POU/PSF. Once showers end,
mid-level cloud coverage decreases, which may allow for fog/mist to
form. Highest confidence is at GFL/PSF where IFR or lower conditions
were included in the TAFs, but fog will be possible at ALB/POU if
these areas see appreciable rainfall this afternoon/evening. Kept
these terminals MVFR for the time being, but if fog develops then
IFR or lower vsbys/cigs would be possible there as well. Fog/mist
dissipates by 11z tomorrow, with a return to VFR conditions and SCT
to BKN mid-level clouds through 18z Monday.

Winds this afternoon will be from the W/NW at 5-10 kt with gusts to
around 15-20 kt, strongest at ALB/PSF. Gusts up to around 30 kt will
be possible with any stronger showers or in isolated thunderstorms.
Winds diminish to around 5 kt shortly after sunset, becoming light
and variable at all terminals for the second half of the night.
Winds then increase back to 5-10 kt from the N/NE tomorrow morning
shortly after sunrise, continuing through the end of the TAF
period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...35