422
FXUS61 KALY 151939
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
339 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the east of the area will maintain mostly dry
conditions tonight through Monday. An upper level disturbance
will bring periods of rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Warmer and more humid weather is expected Wednesday into
Thursday along with showers and some thunderstorms, especially
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will remain east of New England through tonight.
This will result in a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Any isolated
showers from this afternoon, mainly across the Adirondacks, will
diminish this evening. Where some breaks in the clouds occur,
some patchy fog could develop. Low temperatures fall back into
the 50s with some upper 40s across the Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A similar weather pattern from Sunday will continue on Monday
with surface high pressure off the New England coast. More
breaks of sun are expected which will allow temperatures to rise
a few degrees higher than on Sunday (upper 60s to upper 70s). A
few isolated to widely scattered showers could develop once
again during the afternoon hours, especially across the
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley.

A pair of upper level shortwaves will pass across the region
within the southwesterly flow aloft late Monday night through
Tuesday night. Increasing warm air advection and isentropic
lift will result in a period of rainfall Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Little if any instability will result in a very low
probability for thunder. The clouds and rainfall will result in
a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A series of upper level shortwaves will continue to track across
the region on Wednesday ahead of a main upper level trough on
Thursday. A warm front is also progged to lift northward across
the region on Wednesday. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are anticipated on Wednesday, mainly early in the
day, as forcing weakens during the afternoon. Wednesday will
become warmer and more humid than recent days with highs
reaching the 80s in most valley areas with upper 70s across the
higher elevations.

Thursday is expected to be the warmest and most active day of
the week ahead of the main upper level trough and being within
the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system and cold
front from the west. High temperatures will rise in the mid-80s
to lower 90s in valley areas with mid to upper 70s across the
Adirondacks. Dewpoints rising into the mid-60s to lower 70s will
result in heat index (or feels-like temperatures) reaching the
low to mid-90s in some valley areas, near heat advisory
criteria. Showers and thunderstorms will likely cross the region
during the afternoon and evening hours. Some strong to severe
thunderstorms could accompany the front, especially if it
crosses at the time of peak heating. Timing of the front and
thunderstorms remains uncertain and will be monitored in the
coming days.

The surface cold front crosses the region by Friday bringing in
a cooler and less humid air mass. The upper level trough may
linger on Friday resulting in a few showers. By next weekend, an
additional upper level shortwave may cross the region ahead of
a developing upper level ridge across the central CONUS bringing
additional chances for some showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures look to trend back above normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions have returned to GFL, PSF, and ALB this
afternoon as low stratus clouds are thinning out thanks to high
pressure building inland. Low stratus continue at POU where
onshore flow maintains low-level moisture. Given residual low-
level moisture at PSF, increased sun may result in high end MVFR
cigs returning to PSF so included a TEMPO group through 22 UTC.
POU could see brief improvements back to VFR late this afternoon
before more persistent improvements to VFR likely return near
00 UTC. While GFL remain VFR through 00 UTC, fog may return once
again tonight resulting in MVFR vis/cigs. Not confident that
fog persist all night as stratus clouds should return.

Any fog/low stratus should diminish by 12-14 UTC with VFR flying
conditions returning. Otherwise, southerly winds near 4-7kts
through sunset then turning light/variable.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Speciale