623
FXUS61 KALY 012325
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry weather is expected through Wednesday, with
increasing chances for rain later in the week into next weekend.
Above normal temperatures will continue through the upcoming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will shift southward to the mid Atlantic region
this afternoon. The high will generally remain in place there
through Tue. The result will be dry conditions except for a few
light showers possible in the Adirondacks associated with a
northward advancing warm front Tue P.M. Otherwise, just some
added cloud cover will move across the rest of the area. With
ridging aloft and low level S/SW flow, temperatures will be
above normal for the next several days. 850 mb temperature
anomalies are forecast to be +1 to +2 STDEV Mon through Fri
across the entire area (NAEFS). Surface and upper level ridging
along the east coast should hold through Wed.

After nearly a 3-week stretch of dry weather, there is
increasing confidence in multiple chances for rain late this
week into the upcoming weekend. A moist SW flow aloft develops
across the region on Thu (PWAT anomalies increase to +1 to +3
STDEV), ahead of a positively tilted trough moving east across
the Great Lakes. At the surface, an eastward advancing cold
front looks to bring a period of rain to the area, as most
guidance is in agreement now. Whether rain persists on Fri is
more uncertain, as some sources of guidance slows the front`s
progress or even stalls near or just east of our area. There is
enough model agreement to at least mention likely PoPs. As an
upper level trough settles in across the eastern Great Lakes and
Northeast next weekend, there will be additional chances for
rain either with the trough itself and/or with a potential
coastal storm developing near New England. Details will come
into more focus as the week progresses, but bottom line is much
needed rainfall is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00Z/Tuesday, mainly VFR conditions expected through the
period, with the exception of some possible patchy ground fog
developing overnight at KGFL and KPSF. At this time, have only
hinted at some fog formation these sites, however there is at
least a possibility (20-30%) for a few brief periods of IFR/LIFR
toward/around 12Z/Mon at KGFL, with lower chances at KPSF around
the same time. Otherwise, just occasional high and mid level
clouds are expected at the TAF sites late tonight into Monday.

Light/variable winds tonight will become south to southwest at
4-8 KT by late Monday morning, continuing into Monday afternoon.
Low level wind shear is expected at KGFL and KALB overnight as
surface winds drop below 5 KT, while winds around 1500-2000 FT
AGL increase from the west-southwest to 25-30 KT. Any low level
wind shear should diminish shortly after sunrise Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...24