533
FXUS61 KALY 171035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
635 AM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid today with a warm front tracking northward this
morning resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. After
a dry break late this morning into early afternoon, a cold front
will lead to additional scattered showers and storms this
afternoon and early evening with a marginal risk for severe
weather. Cooler and less humid conditions arrive in the wake of
the cold front for Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
- Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for this afternoon
   with damaging winds the primary hazard.

 - Heat Advisories for much of the Hudson Valley from Lake
   George/Saratoga south to the mid Hudson Valley/southern
   Taconics, and for southern Litchfield County CT with heat
   indices peaking at 95 to 100 this afternoon.

 - Period of strong wind gusts with and behind cold frontal
   passage this evening, with some gusts of 35 to 45 mph
   possible.

As of 225 AM EDT, shortwave energy tracking northeast in
combination with mid level warm/moisture advection leading to
isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms across the region,
especially across the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley
region.

Additional scattered showers/thunderstorms associated with mid
level disturbance approaching from the southwest are expected
closer to sunrise, and should persist through mid morning. A few
heavy downpours will be possible.

As main surface low tracks north of the region this afternoon, a
trailing cold front will approach from the NW. There remain
mixed signals for severe weather for this afternoon, as several
model forecast soundings suggest a period of subsidence/mid
level capping and drying overspreading the region in the wake of
this morning`s disturbance. HREF soundings suggest ensemble
mean MU CAPES of 1000-2000 J/kg developing ahead of the front,
along with 0-6 km shear increasing to 30-40 KT. CAMS suggest
isolated to scattered coverage of showers/thunderstorms develop
this afternoon, with greatest coverage mainly north of I-90
where forcing from low passing north of region will be greatest.
There could be some discrete cell development initially, which
could lead to some supercell development, with discrete cells
then possibly developing into small clusters/line segments
capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts.

Overall, a highly conditional severe weather threat, with
coverage expected to be isolated to scattered.

It will be hot and humid, though dewpoints may tend to drop off
across the region this afternoon as low level flow veers into
the southwest and deeper mixing and some downsloping off the
Catskills occur. Still expect heat indices to reach 95-100
within much of the Hudson River Valley from the Lake George
region southward, as well as across southern Litchfield County,
CT, where a heat advisory is in effect from 11 AM until 7 PM
today.

Southwest winds will become gusty this afternoon ahead of the
front, perhaps reaching 25-35 mph. Then as the cold front
passes, there is some potential for stronger winds to mix down
from a low level jet translating across the region, with gusts
of 35-45 mph possible for the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and
Berkshires northward shortly after sunset. These gusty winds
should gradually decrease in intensity around and after
midnight. Otherwise, turning cooler and less humid tonight with
late night lows in the 50s/60s.

Cooler and less humid conditions then arrive Friday and
continues through Saturday. Temps could drop into the 40s across
the southern Adirondacks Friday night with 50s elsewhere, with
daytime highs mainly in the 70s Friday and mid 70s to lower/mid
80s Saturday. Some showers could approach western areas later
Saturday afternoon ahead of a warm front.

Better chances for showers/thunderstorms Saturday night into
Sunday as low pressure tracks across SE Canada/northern New
England. Depending on the progression of this system, there
could be some improvement later Sunday along with a
reinforcement of cooler/drier air. Fair weather with near to
slightly below normal temperatures and lower humidity levels are
expected early next week, with highs mainly in the 70s to lower
80s, and lows in the 50s to lower 60s, with some 40s possible
across the southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Our region is in a warm sector ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Flying conditions are mainly VFR to start the day with
sct-bkn mid level clouds around. There are some stratus clouds
near KPSF, but most areas are just seeing some higher clouds
with a light southerly wind.

During the day today, a cold front will approaching from the
west. There should be VFR conditions through much of the day,
with sct-bkn cigs around 4-5 kft. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to pass through the region during the afternoon or
early evening hours. A brief period of heavy rain may accompany
any thunderstorm, which would lower visibility to 1-3SM with
brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Some gusty winds could occur within a
thunderstorm as well. South to southwest winds will increase
ahead of the front to around 10-15 kts with some higher gusts.

Winds will switch to the west to northwest behind the front for
this evening into tonight. Some gusts in the 15-25 kt range are
possible. Clouds will be decreasing and it will be VFR with
just few-sct lingering clouds behind the front and no additional
precip is expected.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ041-049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Speciale
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...Frugis