356
FXUS61 KALY 171021
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
621 AM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added a key message for potential unsettled weather next
weekend, as there is increasing confidence in a deep upper level
trough developing with a possible closed low somewhere over the
Great Lakes into the Northeast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across
the region today into this evening.

2) Another round of showers, with perhaps a few thunderstorms,
is expected Wednesday into Thursday as cold front slowly moves
across the region.

3) Potentially unsettled weather returns next weekend as a
large upper level trough settles in, although there is low
confidence in details at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Radar indicating scattered to numerous light showers moving
across mainly the SE half of the area early this morning,
associated with a northeastward advancing warm front attached to
a weak cyclone over SE Ontario. A secondary weak cyclone over
SE PA will be advancing NE into the NYC vicinity later this
morning into this afternoon. This first batch of showers will
gradually taper off this morning. While moisture/humidity levels
will be fairly high today (PWAT anomalies of +1 to +2 STDEV;
dewpoints in the 60s to around 70), our area will likely only
get into a pseudo warm sector as the front advances east and
gets somewhat occluded. So severe weather is not anticipated. If
a few breaks of sun occur, there could be widely scattered
T-storms that develop ahead of the system`s occluded front this
afternoon into early evening. Latest CAMs support this, with
SBCAPE potentially reaching 500-1000 J/Kg this afternoon. Any
T-storms could produce brief downpours and sub-severe wind
gusts. Showers/T- storms will end during the evening, with
patchy fog developing overnight. It will still be relatively
humid tonight with dewpoints in the lower/mid 60s across most of
the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a dry day on Tue the next chance of showers, and perhaps
a few T-storms, arrives Wed as a cold front approaches from the
Great Lakes and SE Canada. Guidance does show this front
weakening by the time it reaches our area, so PoPs are limited
to areas well north/west of Albany through Wed. Not much
instability forecast at this time, so will only mention slight
chance of thunder. With a zonal W-SW flow aloft associated with
a broad upper level trough, the cold front is expected to become
parallel to the flow. This will likely result in a slow SE
progression of the front, with at least a low chance for showers
from around and south of the Capital District late Wed night
into Thu morning, then south of Albany Thu afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Deterministic, ensemble and AI guidance in agreement showing a
deep upper level trough developing across the Great Lakes into
the Northeast over the weekend into early next week. There is
potential for a closed upper low to develop, with most of the
latest guidance indicating this occurring just to the north/west
of our region but very close. Depending on the eventual
position/track of the upper low, there is the potential for
heavy rainfall somewhere in vicinity of the region. Should the
low close off a bit farther south/west than currently indicated,
the pattern would result in better moisture transport and heavy
rain potential somewhere in our area. Will continue to closely
monitor trends in the guidance through the week, as this is
still several days away.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...As of 6:20 AM EDT, flying conditions are IFR
(cigs) at ALB/GFL/PSF but have remained MVFR at POU over the past
several hours. May still see a few hours of intermittent IFR
conditions at POU to start the TAF period, so will use a tempo group
here. Otherwise, for the other terminals, IFR cigs prevail for the
first couple hours of the TAF period before improving back to MVFR
by mid to late morning, first at ALB followed by PSF/GFL. Mainly
MVFR to VFR vsbys expected this morning with some patchy mist or a
few light showers.

Continued marginal improvement expected into this afternoon with
mainly MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys, but scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms expected this afternoon and early evening. Brief MVFR
to IFR vsbys and cigs possible within any heavier showers/storms. A
weak cold front tracks through the region tonight, first at GFL/ALB
and eventually PSF/POU. Mainly MVFR cigs expected tonight through
12z TUE, except patchy IFR possible at POU/PSF for the first half of
the night ahead before the front arrives. 5-10 kt S/SE winds early
this morning become light and variable by mid to late morning,
continuing through this evening, before increasing back to around 4-
8kt from the N/NW (locally N/NE at ALB/GFL early tonight) behind the
cold frontal passage tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35