956
FXUS61 KALY 131107
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
707 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued trend of colder min temps for Mon night, especially
across the southern Adirondacks where patchy frost is now
mentioned.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue this morning,
especially for areas near and south of I-90, where some locally
heavy downpours will be possible.

2) A cold front will bring isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms mainly areas north and west of the Capital Region and
southern VT this afternoon and evening. A few storms could
produce damaging winds and/or large hail.

3) It will be a mostly dry and cool start to next week with slightly
below normal temperatures, with the next chance for showers arriving
mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Mid-level trough will continue to tracking east-northeast
across the northern Appalachians through this morning. A
conveyor belt of deep moisture with PWAT`s of 1.75-2" combined
with deep warm cloud layers will be favorable for efficient
warm rain processes, allowing for areas of moderate to locally
heavy rain across much of the region through daybreak, shifting
to areas mainly from the Capital Region and areas south/east
through mid morning. Rainfall rates of 0.25-0.50"/hour are
expected, with locally higher rates within any deeper embedded
convective elements and/or narrow banding that develops. Latest
CAMs suggest that areas near the I-90 corridor may have one
maxima of rainfall associated with mid level F-Gen forcing,
while areas farther southeast across the mid Hudson Valley and
NW CT may have a second maxima where deeper convective elements
and greater low level forcing closer to a developing surface
warm/coastal front occur.

00Z/13 HREF 3-hour probs for >3" rainfall at 10-30% across
portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT between 8-11 AM this
morning, with similar probs for >1" at 50-70% or higher as far
north as portions of the Capital Region, Berkshires and extreme
southern VT, and these are the areas where ponding of water in
low lying/poor drainage and urban areas is more probable. There
is also a low probability for isolated flash flooding in some of
these areas. Heavy rain should shift east of these areas by late
this morning.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

In the wake of this morning`s rainfall, generally dry conditions
are then expected from late morning through at least mid
afternoon, despite mostly cloudy skies. Some breaks in the
clouds are expected to eventually develop by late afternoon. An
approaching cold front is then expected to track into western
and central NY later this afternoon, triggering isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Latest HREFs suggest MU
CAPE of 750-1250 J/kg develops later today, although is highly
dependent on how much sunshine can break through. At this time,
at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to
reach the Mohawk Valley and SW Adirondacks around sunset, which
should then track east/southeast toward the Capital Region and
Lake George/Saratoga region shortly thereafter. Despite waning
instability, strengthening mid level winds and approaching upper
level support could sustain strong thunderstorms for a few hours
even after sunset, should then materialize. A few instances of
damaging wind gusts and/or large hail will be possible. The
latest Day 1 convective outlook from SPC places most of eastern
NY and southern VT within a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A much cooler air mass will overspread the region later tonight
into Monday in the wake of the cold front. It will be breezy
Monday with northwest winds gusting 20-30 mph at times. High
pressure will then build overhead for Monday night, providing
excellent radiational cooling conditions. Low temps by Tue AM
should fall into the 40s for most areas, except 30s across much
of the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley. Patchy
frost will be possible across the southern Adirondacks, and will
need to monitor in case the potential for more widespread frost
potential necessitates frost advisory issuances for these areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Areas of rain, some moderate to heavy, will continue through mid
to late morning, resulting in MVFR/IFR Vsbys/Cigs. Rain should
gradually taper off later this morning, however MVFR/IFR clouds
will likely linger into early afternoon before lifting to VFR.
Another line of scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a
cold front will cross the region from NW to SE between
23Z/Sun-06Z/Mon, which may allow for a brief period of MVFR/IFR
Vsbys. In the wake of the front, most areas should remain VFR
despite occasional Cigs of 3500-5000 FT AGL. However, some
upslope low clouds and MVFR Cigs could linger at KPSF prior to
daybreak.

South to southeast winds will persist at KALB at 8-12 KT with a
few gusts up to 20 KT through sunrise, while remaining
light/variable elsewhere during this time. After daybreak, winds
will be south to southeast at 5-10 KT through this evening, then
will shift into the west to northwest at 8-15 KT toward or after
midnight as the front passes. Winds will be stronger and
variable in direction in and near any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...24/15
AVIATION...24