537
FXUS61 KALY 140804
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
404 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
With our area on the northern side of a frontal
boundary, it will remain cool for today with plenty of clouds and
some passing showers, mainly for this morning.  A few breaks of sun
are expected on Father`s Day, but there still could be a shower
around with temperatures on the cooler side.  Temperatures are
expected to moderate during the upcoming week, with highs back above
normal towards the middle of the week, along with the chance for
some afternoon showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 403 AM EDT...A stalled out frontal boundary is located
south of the region over the mid Atlantic States along with
PA/MD border. A weak wave of low pressure has been developing
along the front and it will be sliding eastward through the
morning hours. Surface high pressure has been located north of
the area, and this has been keeping cooler air over the area,
with the low level flow out of the north.

Meanwhile, the flow aloft is fairly zonal and there is a
weak upper level disturbance moving through the flow across the
region. The combination of the stalled surface boundary and the
weak upper level feature is allowing for a widespread area of
rainfall over Pennsylvania, with additional areas of showers
over Upstate New York and into western New England.

IR saTellite imagery shows fairly cloudy skies over the area and
surface observations shows widespread overcast mid level clouds
in place. Through the morning hours, periods of on and off showers
will spread west to east across the region. Most of this
activity will be occurring south of the Adirondacks. With the
best moisture off to the south, rainfall rates won`t be anything
too excessive. NYS mesonet observations have been showing
rainfall rates generally under a tenth of an inch per hour, with
MRMS estimating rates up to a quarter of an inch per hour within
the brief heavier bursts. With the manageable rainfall rates,
no hydro impacts are expected from this rainfall and the bulk of
the activity will be through about Noon or so. The highest QPF
looks to be across southern areas, although the probability for
total rainfall over an inch is under 15% and even 0.50" is under
50% for the entire area. With a stable air mass in place, no
thunder is expected and SPC HREF shows any elevated instability
looks to remain south of the region, so won`t include mention of
this in the forecast at this time.

After noon, most of the rainfall will be done, so will trend
POPs down from north to south through the late morning hours.
Some breaks of sun are possible during the afternoon, especially
for northern areas, but most areas will be staying fairly
cloudy with the surface front still off to the south. Highs
today will generally be in the 60s, although some low 70s are
possible in northern valley areas where some sun may occur.

For tonight, the frontal boundary will start shifting southward.
The high pressure area off to the north and east will continue
to keep some cool, drier and stable air in place, so little
additional precip is expected overnight. While southern areas
will stay fairly cloudy, partly cloudy skies are expected from
the Capital Region on northward. Lows look to be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Slow moving frontal boundary will continue to shift southward
across the mid Atlantic on Sunday, while surface high pressure
remains anchored to the northeast of the area. This high
pressure area will continue to funnel cooler and more stable air
into the area. A broad upper level trough will remain over the
area for Sunday (Father`s Day). Although forcing is rather weak,
a stray shower or two can`t be ruled out (mainly for western
and northern areas), although most places will stay fairly dry.
There should still be a fair amount of cloud cover around,
although probably more breaks compared to Saturday. Temps will
still be on the cooler side, with afternoon temps in the mid 60s
to mid 70s. It will stay partly to mostly cloudy and fairly
quiet into Sunday night with lows in the 50s.

Mainly quiet weather will continue into Monday and Monday night.
The low level flow will start to become more southerly as the
high pressure area shifts away. Heights and temps aloft will
start to rise on Monday. There still could be a brief afternoon
shower for western areas, but most spots look to stay dry once
again. Temps will be milder compared to the weekend, with
afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 70s in valley areas.
Dewpoints still will be similar in the upper 50s for most spots.
Overnight lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s with a
partly to mostly cloudy sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Unsettled conditions will ensure scattered, garden-variety showers
Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures continuing to trend farther
above normal. Isolated to scattered rumbles of thunder also cannot
be ruled out Wednesday with guidance showing modest amounts of
instability across the region. High temperatures Tuesday will widely
reach the 70s with pockets of low 80s in the valleys. Lows Tuesday
night will fall only to the upper 50s to low 60s before we warm to
the mid 70s to mid 80s Wednesday. Wednesday night`s lows will be
even more mild than Tuesday night with values widely in the 60s.
Thursday will be the day to monitor closely over the coming days as
it holds the better chances for potentially stronger thunderstorms.

Throughout the day Wednesday, a deepening shortwave trough and
associated surface low will eject north and eastward from the
Plains, helping to lift a once stationary boundary northward through
the region as a warm front. By Wednesday night, the axis of the
shortwave becomes situated across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
with the surface low moving out ahead of it into the northeastern
Great Lakes. As a result, we will fall into the warm sector of the
surface cyclone Thursday with the attendant warm front displaced to
our north and the trailing cold front still well upstream. NBM
probabilities for at least 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE range from 60-90%
given the regionwide, extensive heat (highs in the mid/upper 70s to
low 80s and possible pockets near 90) and high humidity (dewpoints
in the mid 60s to mid 70s) with probabilities for at least 1500 J/kg
around 30-60%. While forecast soundings this far in advance need to
be taken with a grain of salt, there are indications of steep low-
level lapse rates, some inverted V profiles, rapid storm motion, and
moderate DCAPE that are, at this time, yielding the potential for
strong wind gusts resulting from any developing thunderstorms. Now,
all that said, there remain some uncertainties in the timing and
track of the aforementioned system. These components of the forecast
will greatly impact the resulting extent or lack of convection. We
will continue to monitor trends closely moving forward.

Friday also remains a bit uncertain at this time given the timing
discrepancies in the depiction of Thursday`s system. However,
maintained scattered chance to chance PoPs to account for the slower
timing of the system which would keep showers around in the wake of
the primary front and ahead of the secondary cold front on the back
side of the system. Lows Thursday night will be similar to those of
Tuesday night. Highs Friday will be in the upper 60s to low 80s with
lows cooling to the 50s and low 60s Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all
terminals as batches of showers and a small area of continuous rain
(near KPOU) move in across the region. Forecast soundings showing an
increased amount of low-level dry air has led to the more optimistic
TAF forecast for the 06z period than previous issuances. Confidence
has increased all the more in this element of the forecast as some
showers have passed through terminal boundaries within the last
couple hours and no observations have indicated precipitation
reaching the ground. Therefore, though scattered showers will
continue to increase in coverage through this morning, TEMPO and
prevailing groups containing rain were delayed a bit to provide some
time for the column to saturate. Still, forecast soundings indicate
ceiling heights primarily remaining within VFR thresholds with brief
reductions to MVFR heights at various times later this morning and
this afternoon. The exception to this looks to be KGFL where a lack
of low-level saturation should prevent conditions from escaping VFR
thresholds.

Rain and showers will conclude later on this morning for most, but
lingering light, continuous rain should continue into the early
afternoon at KPOU. Winds throughout the period will be light and
variable with sustained speeds remaining under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant