432
FXUS61 KALY 162136
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT
536 PM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds through tonight as high pressure gradually
exits further out to sea and a warm front in the mid-Atlantic
slowly lifts northward. Cloudy and a bit cooler with a few
showers around tomorrow before we trend warmer and much more
humid Wednesday into especially Thursday as the front finally
lifts north of us. A strong cold front on Thursday may result in
strong to even severe thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
After some sun for the first half of the day mainly from I-90
northward, clouds are filling back in as high pressure off over
the Canadian Maritime shifts further east and weak warm air
advection commences in the low and mid levels. Besides
increasing clouds, a few light showers are pushing northeastward
out of the Catskills towards the mid-Hudson Valley. Included
slight chance POPs here for the afternoon but any showers will
be light given weak overall forcing. NYS mesonet observations
only show a few hundredths materializing from this showers.
Otherwise, comfortable temperatures in place across eastern NY
and western New England this afternoon with many in the low to
mid 70s and tolerable humidity values, especially for mid-June
standards. Coolest spots in the mid-Hudson Valley and NW CT
where lower stratus have hung around most of the day.


We remain cloudy tonight as zonal flow becomes more meridional
as a disturbance in the Upper Midwest lifts northward into
Canada, inducing weak ridging downstream over the Northeast.
This will help lift a warm front that has persisted in the mid-
Atlantic for the past few days northward with increasing warm
air and moisture advection maintaining cloudy skies and a few
scattered showers. This will temperatures mild overnight in the
upper 50s to low 60s with humidity levels also on the rise.

Skies remain cloudy into tomorrow as our warm front continues it
slow northward climb through the mid-Atlantic and we remain in
the cooler, marine influenced air mass north of the boundary.
South to southeast winds in the low-levels will also maintain
moisture beneath the low-level inversion resulting in stratus
clouds that will keep temperatures cooler compared to previous
days. Low and mid-level warm air/moisture advection combined
with weak shortwaves riding in the southwest flow aloft will
also result in a few areas of showers, especially north and west
of the Capital District. Luckily, no instability will be
present to support storms. Daytime highs will likely only be in
the 60s in the hill towns and higher terrain with low to mid 70s
in valley areas but humidity levels will be on the rise making
it feel muggy. Coolest temperatures likely in the eastern
Catskills, NW CT, and mid-Hudson Valley where the marine
influenced will be most noticeable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Increasing confidence for strong to severe thunderstorms on
  Thursday as a potent cold front tracks eastward across the
  Northeast with damaging winds the primary hazard.

- The combination of high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
  and uncomfortable humidity levels on Thursday may necessitate
  heat advisories, especially in the mid-Hudson Valley.

Discussion:

Uncomfortable humidity continues Tuesday night as our warm
front finally lifts through our region overnight, strengthening
warm air and moisture advection through the column. This
combined with additional weak shortwave tracking northeastward
through the southwest flow aloft will likely support additional
areas of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms given some
weak elevated instability mainly south of I-90. Any storm can
produce brief heavy downpours given high PWATs nearing 2 inches
and high freezing heights above 12kft supporting efficient warm
rain processes. Cloudy skies and such a muggy air mass will also
keep it quite warm overnight, only falling into the mid to
upper 60s.

Very humid conditions continue into Wednesday with morning
clouds breaking for some afternoon sun once the warm front
finally lifts north of our area. As we enter into the respective
warm sector with 850 hPa isotherms climbing to +15C to +17C,
temperatures should respond nicely warming back towards
seasonably levels for mid-June reaching into the upper 70s to
low 80s in valley areas. Given high humidity levels, it will
feel even warmer and more like upper 80s in valley areas. A pre-
frontal trough and additional weak shortwaves tracking into the
region will likely support continued chances for showers and
embedded thunderstorms, especially west of the Hudson River
which should enter in the warm sector first and thus have more
time to destabilize. Once the clouds break for sun and
insolation generates some instability, forecast soundings show
a classic "tall skinny CAPE" signature given a very warm/moist
atmosphere through the column. Mid-level lapse rates look rather
weak under 5.5C/km which should limit severe weather potential
but localized heavy downpours are certainly possible from such a
humid air mass and unidirectional flow through the column. In
fact, PWATS range 2 - 2.5 standard deviations above normal per
the NAEFS and rank in the 95th+ percentile of the model
climatology for mid-June. Showers/storms diminish Wed night as
upper level ridging strengthens aloft but it will remain muggy
and comfortable overnight.

Attention then turns to Thursday when there are concerns for
both heat and severe weather impacts. Building ridging overhead
on Thursday will keep the area dry at least to start but
guidance continues to show an intensifying shortwave trough and
deepening sfc low tracking northeastward through Ontario.
Strengthening southwesterly winds ahead of the low will advect a
very warm air mass into the Northeast with 850 hPa isotherms
+17C to +20C will likely result in high temperatures rising into
the mid to upper 80s with even near 90 in valley areas.
Probabilistic guidance even shows 10 to 20% chance for
temperatures to exceed 90 in valley areas Thurs P.M. The
combination of high humidity and very warm temperatures will
result in heat index values nearing 95 degrees in valley areas
which reaches our heat advisory criteria. Will continue to
monitor but heat sensitive populations should be mindful of
potential heat related impacts (heat stroke/heat exhaustion) on
Thursday and limit unnecessary outdoor activities. WPC`s
HeatRisk continues to show much of our valley areas in its
"moderate" or level 2 categories as well.

We continue to the monitor severe weather potential as well as
the associated cold front from the deepening sfc low looks to
march eastward Thursday afternoon/evening. Guidance has trended
a bit faster with the arrival of the front which would increase
the potential for severe weather as the front has a higher
chance of arriving during peak heating when instability values
are highest. In addition, the strong forcing for ascent,
especially some guidance show the trough taking on a negative
tilt and strong kinematics look to support higher shear values
look to also support organized convection and increased
potential for severe weather. We collaborated with SPC and their
overnight shift will take these factors into consideration when
the Day 3 Convective Outlook is updated tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing confidence for a period of above normal
  temperatures early next week. Probabilistic guidance shows 50
  to 75% chance for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees in valley
  areas on Monday.

Discussion:

Upper level troughing continues into Friday, resulting in
additional chances for showers, especially north of I-90.
Temperatures trend relatively cooler and less humid in the wake
of the front but it will still be seasonable for mid-June.
Upper level subsidence strengthens in the wake of the trough for
Saturday as high pressure builds into the Northeast, giving us a
very pleasant Saturday with seasonable temperatures. By Saturday
night into Sunday we will have to monitor a potential "ridge
roller" as large scale ridging and heat from the Midwest/Ohio
Valley builds eastward with guidance hinting at potential
shortwaves riding along the northern periphery that could
support additional areas of showers/thunderstorms. The hot air
mass looks to shift into the Northeast by the early part of
next week. Probabilistic guidance shows 50 to 75% chance for
temperatures exceeding 90 degrees for Monday which is rather
impressive at this lead time. CPC continues to message 60-70%
chance for above normal temperatures June 24-30 which shows
increasing confidence for above normal temperatures for the
final week of June. Heat sensitive populations should stay tuned
as confidence is rising for heat-related impacts for this time
period.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z Tuesday...Currently VFR conditions are observed at all 4
TAF sites with light south/southeast winds at 4 to 8 knots. Mid
level clouds near KPOU will continue to lower toward MVFR conditions
by late afternoon as a surface warm front approaches. Scattered
light rain showers will develop from southwest to northeast across
our TAF sites overnight with cigs lowering to a mix of IFR/MVFR. The
highest probability of IFR or lower CIGS will be at KPSF/KPOU and
KGFL, with mostly a mix of MVFR/VFR at KALB. The stronger winds just
off the deck will limit the areal coverage of fog, with low level
stratus clouds more likely overnight into Tuesday morning. Timing of
scattered rain showers looks to be between 02z-12z across our taf
sites. IFR cigs look to linger most of the morning at KPOU and KPSF,
before conditions slowly improve toward 18z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...BTV