924
FXUS61 KALY 211051
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
651 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued mention of patchy frost over the southwest Adirondacks
and added the southern Greens tonight. Expanded coverage of
patchy to areas of frost for the southwest Adirondacks Tue night
and a Frost Advisory may be needed later if confidence for areas
of frost (33-36F) increases.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Low clouds and patchy fog decrease this morning with mainly
dry and cool conditions with below normal temps through Wed.

2) A coastal storm will track near the East Coast late this
week into weekend, but confidence remains low on whether we
will see significant impacts from this system at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The initial cold front has stalled and become stationary near
the New England Coast and south of the region this morning with
lingering low clouds and some patchy fog across the region. Some
clearing north of the Capital Region towards Lake George may
allow for some localized areas of fog to redevelop. Otherwise,
abundant low-level moisture in place will allow for low stratus
to continue into the late morning/early pm, as a secondary cold
front moves through the region in the late morning into the
early afternoon. Temps today will run below normal by 5-10
degrees with mid 50s to mid/upper 60s for highs with N/NE winds
5-15 mph and some gusts 20-25 mph. High pressure will be
building south tonight from southeast Canada. A canopy of mid to
high clouds associated with low pressure moving along the mid-
Atlantic Region and its associated inverted sfc trough will
overspread the region late this afternoon into tonight. A few
isolated light showers (15-24% chance)/sprinkles may get close
to the I-84 corridor tonight. Clearing over the northern zones
may allow lows to fall into mid 30s to around 40F. Some patchy
frost is possible over the southwest Adirondacks and portions of
southern VT. Lows will be cool in the 40s from I-90 and the
Capital Region southward.

A strong surface anticyclone will ridge in over the region from
the northern Great Lakes Region, southeast Ontario and Quebec
from Tue through the mid week. Temps will continue to run below
normal on Tue with mid 50s to around 60F over the higher terrain
and lower to mid 60s in the valleys with partly sunny
conditions especially from the Capital Region north. Autumn
begins at 805 pm Tuesday. A chilly night is expected with near
ideal radiational cooling conditions north of the mid Hudson
Valley Tue night/Wed morning. Some areas of frost are possible
over the southwest Adirondacks with lows 33-36F. Patchy frost is
possible over the southern Greens. Lows in the 30s will be
common north and east of the Capital District/Mohawk Valley,
except some upper 30s over the northern Catskills. Expect lower
to mid 40s over the rest of the region. Temps rebound closer to
normal Wed and Thu with dry conditions continuing with the
strong surface high over s-cntral Quebec, as a mid and upper
level Rex Block sets-up.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The late week into the weekend forecast period, the ensembles,
deterministic medium range and AI guidance continue to show a
potential coastal low forming and tracking near the Mid Atlantic
and New England Coasts. The various solutions continue to vary
on the placement and track. With the Rex Block setting up aloft
which is common this time of year, the coastal low position is
uncertain where it will close off. The latest Days 4-7 WPC
guidance does bring a chance of showers (30-40%) from the
northern Catskills, Greater Capital Region, southern VT south
and east with the coastal low well south and east of Long Island
Fri pm-Fri night. Chances of showers continue for at least the
the opening of the weekend from the Capital Region south and
east. If the storm tracks close enough to southeast New England
and Long Island, then it will also become breezy with
north/northeast winds late Fri into the weekend. The amount of
rainfall is uncertain with the variability on the track of the
low going into the weekend. Block flow regimes and closed lows
are challenging to pinpoint the timing, evolution and pcpn
distributions far out in time. We will continue to monitor this
system and additional changes to the forecast late-week should
be expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday...MVFR/IFR conditions begin the TAF cycle
at KGFL/KPOU/KPSF. KALB is VFR but some MVFR or a brief period
of IFR cigs will likely move back in late this morning. Some
IFR/LIFR fog and stratus formed at KGFL prior to sunrise and
should burn off between 12Z-14Z/Mon with some lingering MVFR
stratus. KPSF has cigs just in the IFR range which should lift
to MVFR levels between 12Z-14Z/Mon. The MVFR cigs in the
1.2-2.5 kft AGL range will linger until 15Z-18Z/Mon at all the
TAF sites and then should decrease with high clouds beginning
to increase during the afternoon with an approaching low
pressure system along the mid Atlantic Region late this
afternoon into tonight. VFR conditions return this afternoon and
continue into tonight with mid and high clouds increasing. A
lower cloud deck in the 4-5 kft AGL range may impact KPOU/KPSF
shortly before or just after 06Z/Tue.

North/northeast wind at 4-7 KT this morning, increase to 8-12
KT with some gusts 15-20 KT especially at KPSF//KALB/KPOU in
the late morning through the afternoon . The winds decrease to 7
KT or less after 23Z/Mon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15