473
FXUS61 KALY 301051
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
651 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is an elevated risk for fire spread today for areas
within and immediately adjacent to the Hudson River Valley,
western MA and northwest CT due to dry fuels combined with
gusty winds and lowering relative humidity.

2) Dry weather is expected this weekend through the middle of
next week with increasing chances for rain later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Rain showers ahead of an approaching cold front continue for
areas north and west of the Capital District but are beginning
to break apart and diminish. These showers may make little
further eastward progression before fully dissipating.
Therefore, most areas from the Capital District and points south
and east will likely continue its dry spell for several more
days. Where it has rained, rainfall amounts up to around 0.10
inches have been observed with the higher amounts across the
Adirondacks. The cold front is nearing the Adirondacks and will
continue to track southeastward across the region through this
morning. In the wake of the front, gusty northwesterly winds
will develop and continue through the rest of the day with
frequent gusts 25 to 35 mph, strongest across the Mohawk Valley
into the Capital District and Berkshires. Relative humidity
levels will lower to 40 to 55 percent this afternoon with the
higher values in the higher elevations. Per collaboration with
NYS/New England DEC`s/DEP`s and surrounding WFO`s, given the
drying fuels across these areas with little or no rainfall for
nearly 2 weeks, a Special Weather Statement has been issued
through this afternoon for an elevated risk of fire spread. With
the cold air advection in place, temperatures will struggle to
rise much today only reaching the mid-50s to mid-60s except
remaining in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the Adirondacks.
Winds will begin to diminish tonight with surface high pressure
building in from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Dry weather is expected this weekend through the middle of next
week with high pressure nearby with less wind. Latest forecast
trends keep a backdoor frontal boundary well north of the area
early next week reducing precipitation chances for our area.
High temperatures will start near normal this weekend, trending
to 5 to 10 degrees above normal next week. Long range guidance
is beginning to show signs that we finally get our much needed
widespread rainfall later next week with the potential
interaction or phasing of a deep upper level trough/upper-level
low approaching from the west and a low pressure system tracking
northward near or just off the East Coast. Further details
remain uncertain with this still a week out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z/Sat...A cold front will cross the area this morning.
Some periods of MVFR cigs are possible, mainly at KALB/KPSF for
a few hours this morning; otherwise, VFR conditions will be
common through the TAF period. Clouds begin to diminish
tonight. Winds shift to the northwest at the start of the TAF
period and increase to 10-18 kt with gusts 22-30 kt through this
afternoon. Winds begin to gradually decrease tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33