753
FXUS61 KALY 150159
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
959 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cool weather continues tonight, as mainly dry
weather is expected Sunday through early next week with temperatures
gradually trending back to near normal. Warmer and more humid
conditions return for mid to late week with increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms as a low pressure system crosses the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 959 pm EDT...Minor adjustments to the forecast this
evening with high pressure building in from southeast Canada
with the GOES IR/Night fog satellite imagery showing the back of
the cloud edge as far south as the Mohawk Valley and the
Saratoga Region. We lowered the skycover to mostly clear to
partly cloudy for tonight. We added some patchy fog (i.e. Lake
George Region) for the areas that are clearer and kept mostly
cloudy skies south and east with low temps in the 50 and some
upper 40s over the higher terrain.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure will build across the region from the north
tonight and through the day Sunday with west-northwesterly zonal
flow continuing aloft. While a few isolated showers could
develop in some locations, most areas will remain dry through
Sunday night. Mostly cloudy conditions will continue tonight
along with some patchy fog, then break for more sun by Sunday
afternoon, Father`s Day. Temperatures will fall back into the
50s tonight then rise into the upper 60s to mid-70s on Sunday.
Nighttime temperatures Sunday night drop into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Zonal flow continues through early next week as high pressure
slowly shifts to the east by Tuesday. An upper level shortwave
will approach the region from the Ohio Valley later Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Isolated to widely scattered showers may
develop both Monday and Tuesday, especially for areas north and
west of Albany but neither day is expected to be a washout.
Highs both days will reach the 70s with some upper 60s across
the elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak ridging builds overhead on Wednesday ahead of an
approaching upper level trough on Thursday. Warmer and more
humid conditions develop with highs reaching the 70s and 80s
with dewpoints increasing to the 60s to lower 70s. Feels-like
temperatures could reach the lower to mid-90s in some valley
areas. Increasing instability across the region and forcing for
ascent with the approaching trough, embedded shortwaves and
approaching cold front will increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms with Thursday likely the day with the greatest
coverage. Will continue to monitor trends for some stronger
thunderstorms on Thursday.

There is some uncertainty on how quickly the trough departs by
the end of the week into the start of next weekend. If the
trough lingers, some showers may linger. Otherwise, drier
weather returns as high pressure builds into the region. It will
not be as warm nor humid on Friday and Saturday with highs right
around seasonable normals.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions at KGFL/KALB/KPOU at the beginning of the TAF
cycle with MVFR cigs 1.0-2.0 kft AGL at KPSF. The VFR conditions
will begin to lower to MVFR levels at KALB/KGFL/KPOU between
03Z-06Z/SUN with cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL. Some IFR cigs and MVFR
cigs may materialize at KGFL/POU/KPSF 08Z-12Z/SUN with some
patchy drizzle. TEMPO groups were used to address IFR
conditions. KALB may hold as MVFR, but may need a TEMPO group
later. As high pressure builds in from the north, some
improvement to VFR cigs may occur 16Z-19Z/SUN for KALB/KGFL with
lingering MVFR cigs 1.5-3.0 kft AGL for the end of the TAF
cycle at KPOU/KPSF at 00Z/MON. The winds will vary from
northeast to southeast at 5 KT or less tonight, and will be
east/southeast 4-7 KT in the late morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Wasula