415
FXUS61 KALY 161005
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
605 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and increasingly humid conditions will prevail today into
Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
tonight and continue Thursday ahead of an approaching upper
level disturbance and cold front. Cooler and less humid conditions
will follow in the wake of the front for Friday into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 6 AM EDT, have increased areal coverage of fog
within river valleys per latest obs and satellite imagery. No
other changes at this time.

Key Messages:

 - Dangerous heat and humidity today with heat index values
   ranging from 95 to 100 throughout portions of the Hudson and
   Mohawk River Valleys, eastern Windham County VT and northwest
   Connecticut, where a Heat Advisory is now in effect.

 - Additional Heat Advisories possible for Thursday with heat
   index values potentially reaching the mid/upper 90s.

 - Scattered showers/thunderstorms develop tonight and continue
   Thursday, with a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
   Thursday.

Discussion:

As of 240 AM EDT, mainly clear skies with patchy fog developing
across the region, with temps ranging from the upper 50s across
the southern Adirondacks, to the lower/mid 70s across the mid
Hudson Valley.

After any patchy fog/low clouds burn off shortly after sunrise,
expect mostly sunny and hot conditions today, along with
increasing humidity levels. High temps should reach the upper
80s to lower/mid 90s in most areas, and with dewpoints climbing
into the mid 60s to lower 70s, heat indices (Feels-Like temps)
should reach 95-100 in many valley areas this afternoon. We have
expanded the heat advisory into eastern Windham County in
southern VT, and all of Litchfield County in northwest CT where
heat indices in the mid/upper 90s are expected.

Weak dewpoint boundary will be lifting northward this afternoon,
and may support enough lift combined with terrain to produce
isolated showers/thunderstorms later this afternoon across
portions of the eastern Catskills/Helderbergs, perhaps into
portions of the Capital Region around sunset.

For tonight, the combination of approaching shortwave from Ohio
Valley region and leading edge of low level wind max along with
some elevated instability should support at least scattered
showers/thunderstorms, especially areas west of I-87. PWAT`s
increase to 1.75-2", so heavy downpours will be possible. In
addition, can not completely rule out isolated strong wind gusts
given some soundings suggesting ML CAPES up to 1500 J/kg. SPC
has placed areas mainly west of I-87 within a Marginal Risk for
severe thunderstorms due to this low probability.

Clusters of showers/thunderstorms may be ongoing Thursday
morning as the aforementioned shortwave and low level
convergence moves across the region. A break is then expected
later Thursday morning through early afternoon, before scattered
thunderstorms potentially redevelop ahead of approaching cold
front. There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding coverage
of afternoon thunderstorms, as some CAMS have little to no
additional afternoon convection, while others have scattered to
numerous coverage. This leads to a highly conditional threat for
severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, as mid level wind
fields become rather strong with 0-6 km shear increasing to
30-40 KT, strongest across the southern Adirondacks. There is
also some veering to the low/mid level wind profiles. So, if
convection develops, it could initially be discrete with some
supercell development before potentially merging into
clusters/lines producing strong wind gusts. Thus, multi-mode
convective hazards will be possible assuming convection develops
despite some mid level capping and weak upper level divergence.
SPC has placed our region within a Marginal Risk for severe
thunderstorms due to the existing uncertainties in
coverage/development of convection, despite favorable
instability and shear.

It will also be hot and humid once again, and heat indices
should once again reach the mid/upper 90s for some elevations
below 1000 feet. Additional heat advisories will likely be
needed for some areas.

Some lingering showers/thunderstorms may occur across western
New England Thursday evening, otherwise clear to partly cloudy
skies later Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cooler and much less humid for Friday-Saturday in the wake of
the frontal passage with highs in the mid 70s to lower/mid 80s,
and overnight lows mainly in the 50s, with some 40s possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks.

Shortwave and surface low pressure tracking across the Great
Lakes and Quebec looks to bring chances for
showers/thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.

Fair and less humid conditions are then expected in the wake of
this system for Monday through at least early Tuesday. Some
showers from an approaching warm front could reach western areas
later Tuesday or Tuesday night. Seasonably warm with highs in
the lower/mid 80s in valleys and 75-80 for higher terrain, with
lows in the 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12z Thursday...Fog has formed at GFL/PSF overnight, but has
not gotten into ALB/POU as of 5:55 AM EDT. Some MVFR vsbys or patchy
low stratus may linger for the first hour of the TAF period at
GFL/PSF as the fog mixes out this morning, but otherwise all
terminals should see just FEW to SCT mid-level clouds around and VFR
conditions through at least late this evening. Still a very low
confidence forecast tonight regarding potential for showers and
thunderstorms. Have adjusted prob30 groups to cover the last several
hours of the TAF period for this based on latest guidance, but
further refinement to the shower and storms chances will be needed
with subsequent TAF issuances. Outside of any showers/storms, mainly
VFR conditions with BKN to OVC mid-level clouds expected tonight.
Winds increase from light and variable to 5-10 kt from the south by
late morning, continuing through tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ001-013.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ063>066.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ038-040-041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-
     084.
MA...None.
VT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VTZ015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Main