801
FXUS61 KALY 291911
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
211 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of New England tonight, as
low pressure moving through the Great Lakes Region will bring an
increase in clouds with light snow by daybreak.  A mixture of light
rain and snow will continue through the day with moderate snowfall
amounts over the southern Adirondacks with the systems cold front
moving through Sunday night.  High pressure briefly builds in on
Monday before low pressure passing south of the region brings a
widespread light to moderate accumulating snowfall late Monday night
through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Winter Weather Advisory for the western Adirondacks 1 AM
  tonight to 1 AM Monday for 4-8" of snowfall.

Discussion:

As of 211 PM EST...High pressure will be over NY and New
England late this afternoon into early tonight. The brisk west
to northwest winds will diminish prior to sunset. Mid and high
clouds will begin to increase ahead of low pressure moving from
the Midwest to the Great Lakes Region by daybreak tomorrow. The
low-level south to southwest flow will increase. The isentropic
lift increases on the 280-290K surfaces for some light snow to
break out from the Capital Region north and west. The
south/southwest flow will favor some orographic enhancement
along and near the southwest Adirondacks. Snowfall amounts may
be in the 1-3" range by 7 am Sunday over northern Herkimer and
Hamilton Counties. Expect a slushy coating to perhaps an inch
from the Tri Cities north and west. Lows fall back into the 20s
with some teens over the Adirondack Park and may begin to rise
in the early to mid morning hours.

The warm advection increases through the day on Sunday, as the
warm front lifts through most of the forecast area by the
afternoon. It may stall just north of the Mohawk Valley/Capital
Region. The pcpn continues over the Adirondack Park for several
inches of snowfall. The southern Greens may receive 1-3"/2-4"
with 1-3" over the eastern Catskills. The valley areas will warm
with the increasing south/southwest winds of 10-20 mph with
gusts 25-35 mph in some spots. The orographic enhancement off
the SW Dacks may allow for 4-8" of snow by nightfall. The Winter
Weather Wx Advisory runs through the evening. Shadowing off the
northern Catskills will decrease the pcpn to drizzle or nothing
in the Mohawk Valley and even the Capital Region. Max temps were
favored towards the NBM/MAVMOS with highs in the upper 30s to
lower 40s in the valleys and upper 20s to mid 30s over the
higher terrain.

The cold or occluded front moves through during the evening with
some additional scattered snow showers for the western Adirondacks.
Some of the snow showers will be lake enhanced/upslope for
additional light snow accums. The winds will veer to the
southwest to west with a returning surge of cold advection. Some
flurries/light snow showers may impact the Capital Region and
upslope areas of the western New England overnight with little
or no accumulation. Lows fall back into the mid 20s to around
30F with teens to lower 20s over the higher terrain.

A brief respite to quieter weather Monday again with high
pressure building in over the Mid Atlantic Region and
Northeast. Split mid/upper-level flow will persist over the
CONUS with a northern stream short-wave digging into the Central
Plains/Corn Belt of IA Monday afternoon with a southern stream
disturbance moving east of TX into the lower MS River Valley.
Low pressure will form over the Southeast into the Lower Mid
Atlantic States Mon night. This developing storm system will
impact the region Tue. Temps will run below normal 5-10 degrees
Mon with lower to mid 30s mainly below 500 ft in elevation and
20s to lower 30s above it. Clouds increase Mon night...thicken
and lower with some light snow breaking out from the Capital
Region south and west based on the latest NBM/ensembles with
some warm advection well in advance of the system. Lows will be
quite cold with teens to lower 20s (some single digits over the
Adirondack Park) due to some radiational cooling with the
retreating high and mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions to
start the night. Snow accums of a coating to less than an inch
expected by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message:

- A low pressure system passing of the region Tue-Tue night will
  bring a light to moderate snowfall with the latest 13Z NBM
  probs 25-60% supporting > 4" of snowfall by 7 am Wed south
  and east of the southern Dacks.

Discussion:

A neutral tilted mid and upper level trough will be moving east
of the MS River River Valley Tue morning with low pressure
lifting northeast of the Carolinas. Southwest flow will continue
aloft over the region. High pressure moves east of Nova Scotia.
Low to mid level warm advection coupled with an inverted sfc
trough looks to focus the initial surge of snowfall Tue. The
big issue is how far north the coastal low tracks near Long
Island and the southern New England Coast. The ensemble clusters
and deterministic guidance shows some variability in the track
and evolution still that may make the difference for a light to
moderate snowfall across the region vs a moderate to heavy.
Todays guidance suggest more of a light to moderate snowfall
with even the latest WPC Winter Wx guidance suggesting 4-8"
south and east of the northern Lake George Region/southern Dacks
with perhaps 2-4" there. The coastal low is an open wave and a
faster move Tue pm into Tue night with a favored track
south/southeast of southeast New England. Our latest forecast
supports the moderate accumulation scenario with 3-6" over most
of the region with perhaps higher totals over southern VT, the
Berkshires and the eastern Catskills. Some deviations in the
track and amounts will continue, but impacts to the Tue commutes
look likely. Highs will only be in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Lows
Tue night fall back into the teens and lower 20s with northwest
winds increasing.

High pressure briefly returns for Wed in the wake of the storm
system. Temps remain of the chilly side for early Dec with mid
20s to lower 30s over the higher terrain and mid and upper 30s
in the valleys with partly to mostly sunny skies due to the
anticyclone. A northern stream short-wave will increase clouds
Wed night into Thu with scattered snow showers. The cold front
will move through with another surge of colder air that will
keep temps below normal and max temps may be hard pressed to get
above 30F in many locations across eastern NY and western New
England on Friday. Another quick moving wave from the Great
Lakes Region/southeast Ontario may bring a period of light
snow/snow showers to open the first weekend of December.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditons prevail across all TAF sites this
afternoon as high pressure continues to make a northeasterly push
into the region. Favored flight conditions are anticipated to
continue through much of the 18z TAF cycle with this high pressure
remaining in place through this evening. However, an incoming low
pressure system will increase cloud cover beginning tonight and
bring snow, rain, and a mix thereof late tonight/early tomorrow
morning through tomorrow. Though there still remains some
uncertainty in terms of timing and precipitation type, generally
snow looks to be the onset precipitation type, beginning between 09-
13z. IFR conditions should be realized upon the start of any snow
showers with both ceiling height and visibility. Snow will then
transition to rain or a rain/snow mix later in the morning into the
early afternoon with MVFR to IFR conditions possible as a result.
Winds will remain breezy through this afternoon out of the northwest
with sustained speeds ranging from 10 to 20 kt and accompanying
gusts of 20 to 30 kt. A gradual decline will see light and variable
winds overnight before a light, southeasterly wind prevails tomorrow
with sustained speeds under 10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday
     for NYZ032-033.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...37