336
FXUS61 KALY 190610
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
210 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased probability of showers and QPF on Thursday for areas
south of Albany, as a cold front is not expected to push as far
south as previously expected. A wave of low pressure moving
along the front should bring scattered to numerous showers
Thursday P.M. Temperatures will be cooler as well with more
cloud cover.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms,
are expected this afternoon into early this evening. Additional
scattered to numerous showers are expected on Thursday, mainly
south of Albany.

2) Unsettled weather returns over the weekend, as a broad upper
level trough impacts the region, although there is still
somewhat low confidence in the timing, rainfall amounts and
details with this system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a dry start to the day with some patchy fog, scattered
showers and isolated T-storms are expected to develop this
afternoon, as a cold front approaches from the Great Lakes and
SE Canada. Guidance continues to show this front weakening as it
enters our area, so will only mention shower chances mainly for
areas north/west of Albany. A few showers may get close to the
Capital District towards evening as the front moves in, so will
mention 20% PoPs. Guidance still showing limited instability
with SBCAPE < 700 J/Kg from HREF, so will continue to only
mention slight chance of thunder.

The decaying front shifts south of the area tonight into Thu,
although much of the latest guidance has the remnants of the
boundary only reaching SE PA/NJ before stalling with a wave of
low pressure developing along the old boundary and tracking east
along it on Thu. CAMs are especially aggressive indicating
showers from this wave making it far enough north into at least
southern parts of our area (E. Catskills, mid Hudson Valley,
Taconics, Litchfield CT). Global guidance is not as aggressive
though, but AI models do have showers south of Albany. NBM
PoPs/QPF look too low, so have increased PoPs to likely for
these areas by Thu P.M. and used WPC QPF, which shows around
0.25-0.50" across the far southern part of the area. The threat
for any severe storms remains very low, as any appreciable
instability should be displaced well south of our region. As a
result of more clouds/showers around, temperatures look cooler
(mainly 70s) and may need to be lowered further if trends hold.
The showers should taper off from west to east Thu evening as
the wave tracks into SE New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The pattern looks to become more active by the later half of
the weekend into early next week, as a deep upper level trough
settles in across the Great Lakes and Northeast. The weekend is
coming into somewhat better focus now. Sat looks like the drier
day compared to Sun, although will mention chance PoPs
south/east of Albany due to potential for some showers along the
northern periphery of a coastal wave expected to track from the
mid Atlantic coast to SE New England. The more widespread
showers should be south of our area based on the current
guidance. Sun is expected to be the wetter day, as forcing
increases downstream of the upper trough axis with diffluence
aloft. With the main surface cyclone expected to track north
into Canada, the system`s occluded front should provide low
level focus for likely rounds of showers (and perhaps some
T-storms) to move across our area. The threat of heavy rain has
decreased, as most deterministic, AI and ensemble guidance have
loosely consolidated indicating a closed low tracking north/west
of our area. There is still spread in the exact track, but
latest trends at least indicate lowering potential for heavy
rainfall. Latest NBM showing a 15-35% prob of > 1.0" rain ending
Monday morning. Temperatures look to be below normal through
early next week associated with the trough.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...As of 1:05 AM EDT, flying conditions are VFR
at all terminals, although intermittent fog/mist has developed at
GFL already and remains possible through around 12z. IFR to
LIFR vsbys and cigs possible with the fog here, which has been
highlighted with tempo groups. Elsewhere, mid-level cloud deck
as expanded over ALB/POU/PSF. Given this, fog/mist chances seem
to be lower than before at ALB/POU, so have shortened the tempo
groups and just kept MVFR vsbys for these terminals. PSF should
actually see the mid-level clouds linger the longest, but
if/when these clouds break fog/mist should form quickly, so have
kept tempo for IFR vsbys here but pushed it back by 1 hr from
previous TAF issuance.

Any fog/mist dissipates by 12-13z this morning with a return to
VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period with just some
SCT to BKN mid and high clouds around for much of the day. A
rogue shower can`t totally be ruled out at GFL this evening, but
confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Light
and variable winds through the rest of tonight increase to 5-10
kt from the S/SW this morning, veering to the W/SW this
afternoon with some gusts to around 15 kt possible. Winds
diminish to 5 kt or less after sunset this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...35