489
FXUS61 KALY 140206
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1006 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions continue early tonight with rain showers
moving after midnight especially from Interstate 90 south. Dry
conditions return by late Saturday morning, as temperatures continue
to be below normal for this weekend. However, a moderating trend
beginning Monday will bring us back up to normal and even above
normal temperatures by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Update as of 1005 pm EDT...Some adjustments on the timing of
showers coming in from the west to southwest. Some showers are
popping up over central NY and the Catskills. These showers will
spread eastward from the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and
Berkshires south between 10 pm and 1 am. The latest SPC RAP
Mesoanalysis guidance has Showalter stability indices above zero
over the forecast area and the closest cloud to ground strikes
are over western PA. We kept thunderstorms out of the forecast.
The low pressure system will pass well to the south of the
region but decent isentropic lift will occur north of the wave
interacting with a mid level short-wave, as PWATS briefly
increases greater than an inch. The timing of the showers was
adjusted based on the latest few runs of the 3-km HRRR and radar
trends. Lows tonight will be in the 50s with some upper 40s
over the southern Dacks and southern Greens.

Previous discussion...

Dry conditions across eastern New York and western New England come
to an end tonight as chances for rain showers increase from 30
percent to 80 percent across the eastern Catskills to locations
south and east of I-90. Based on latest high resolution forecast
model trends, a line of rain showers stays south of the Adirondacks
for tonight and tomorrow morning where only 15 to 30 percent chances
is in the forecast for this timeframe. Forecast confidence is
highest for locations south and east of Albany to see rain showers
beginning late tonight (10 PM to 2 AM) and moving through overnight.
Rain showers are likely (greater than 75 percent) to bring
accumulations between a tenth up to a quarter of an inch with a few
locations potentially seeing a moderate to heavy quick burst of
rainfall overnight up to 0.4 inches. As these showers are forecasted
to quickly move out of eastern New York and western New England
tomorrow morning (between 8 AM and 11 AM), we`re looking to see a
dry afternoon and evening in store as surface high pressure builds
in from the north and continues into Sunday. This will also depend
on how fast the low pressure system moves through, so a few
lingering light rain showers (less than 30 percent chance) could be
in store for the Mid-Hudson Valley through noon tomorrow. One more
day of cool temperatures tomorrow in the 60s and low 70s, with
locations that see more cloud coverage during the afternoon hours
stick around in the 60s. Low temperatures range in the 50s
Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A mostly dry day is in store for Sunday as surface high pressure
builds in to the Northeast helping limit shower activity for
eastern New York and western New England to less than 30
percent for Sunday morning and early afternoon. The surface low
pressure system that brought the rain showers on Saturday
morning heads off the Atlantic coast and a mix of sun and clouds
is in store for Sunday with high temperatures remaining cool in
the 60s for higher terrain locations and in the 70s in the
valleys. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning range
in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday through Tuesday: Dry conditions are in store for Monday with
chances increasing (40-50%) for rain showers and a few non-severe
thunderstorms (5 to 14%) associated with a surface low pressure
system moving to our south and east Tuesday afternoon and early
evening. High temperatures begin to gradually warm up to seasonal
with highs ranging in the upper 70s and low 80s. Low temperatures
also gradually warm up with Tuesday morning ranging in the 50s and
60s and on Wednesday morning ranging in the 60s.

Wednesday through Thursday: Lots of uncertainty as we head into
the midweek timeframe as an upper level trough could bring
chances (50 to 75 percent) for rain showers and thunderstorms to
eastern New York and western New England. Depending on ensemble
forecast trends, Thursday is looking the most favorable with
conditions to develop thunderstorms with Wednesday being more
favored for rain shower activity. Summer-like heat returns for
Wednesday and Thursday with highs ranging in the mid to upper
80s across eastern New York and western New England. Latest
probabilities from the National Blend of Models 4.3 data shows
between a 60 and 80 percent chance of high temperatures
exceeding 90 degrees on Thursday across the Mid-Hudson Valley
and Greater Capital District. Muggy conditions also returns so
feel-like temperatures on Thursday are going to range in the low
to high 90s across eastern New York and western New York,
especially in cities and urban locations. Remember to stay
hydrated and if spending time outdoors to take frequent breaks
from the sun during peak heating hours (10 AM to 3 PM).

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z/Sun...VFR conditions will continue until 04Z-06Z/SAT
for KALB/KPSF/KPOU, as showers evolving into a period of
stratiform rainfall will move in. Expect ceilings/visibilities
to fall into the low VFR/high MVFR range 04Z-8Z/SAT at these
sites, and then the rain ahead of the wave moves into KGFL. A
period of widespread MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible between
08Z-16Z/SAT before ending. Some IFR cigs are possible at KPSF
between 10Z-16Z/SAT. The rain should end around 16Z/SAT with
lingering high MVFR/low VFR cigs for the afternoon. The winds
will be variable in direction at 5 KT or less tonight, and then
will become north to northeast at 4-8 KT in the late morning
through the afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula/Webb
NEAR TERM...Wasula/Webb
SHORT TERM...Webb
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Wasula