008
FXUS61 KALY 161900
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
300 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The system bringing scattered showers this afternoon through
tonight continues to steer around us, lowering the QPF.
Additionally, the threat for thunderstorms has significantly
decreased for this afternoon. Therefore, we maximized thunder
probabilities at 20% along with our neighboring offices and
edited the QPF to align more closely with latest guidance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered light showers this afternoon through tonight will
bring beneficial rain to the region. Flash flooding, isolated
or otherwise, is no longer a threat.

2) Another round of showers and potential thunderstorms is
expected Wednesday, but no warning-level impacts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Clouds are on the increase across the area from southwest to
northeast as a mid-level shortwave and low-level warm front
approach from the west. A resulting area of showers is expanding
northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic, while vigorous convection
is ongoing upstream in the Ohio Valley. Another mid-level
shortwave to our north has helped to initiate some showers over
the international border, but both of these disturbances will
remain displaced from our region through tomorrow. Therefore,
while we continue to expect scattered showers this afternoon
through tonight due to warm air advection and adjacent forcing
for ascent, the amount of rainfall we will see has decreased
further. Likely also contributing to our lower QPF is the
aforementioned convection upstream. Heavy rain is pouring into
the Ohio Valley and likely robbing us of some of our available
moisture. In fact, our current dewpoint depression spread ranges
from about 13-20 degrees. So the showers that are currently
incoming are going to have some dry air to battle before
reaching the ground.

That said, as the warm sector of the system moves into our area
this evening into tonight and moisture increases, the column
will moisten, showers will become a bit more widespread, and
rain will actually start reaching the ground more consistently.
Overall, we anticipate anywhere from about 0.1" to 0.25" this
afternoon through tonight with an additional 0.05" to 0.2"
through tomorrow afternoon as the still departing system
continues to cause highly scattered showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two. However, as rainfall rates are anticipated
to be very light and the progressive nature of this system will
limit shower/storm duration over single locations, there are no
concerns of flooding today or tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A period of dry conditions returns Tuesday before the chances for
showers and potential thunderstorms increase Wednesday ahead of
a cold front. At this time, there is not an expectation for
any storms to become severe as instability appears limited amid
meager lapse rates. That said, deep layer shear is about 40 kt
so storm organization cannot be ruled out. The biggest factor at
play will be the timing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday... VFR conditions will prevail across all
terminals through the remainder of this afternoon, with mid-
level clouds and southerly winds with gusts up to 15-25 kts.
Scattered rain showers and mist will develop late this afternoon
and evening, with the potential for brief cig and vis drops to
MVFR. As rain showers become more widespread during the
overnight period, conditions are expected to steadily
deteriorate to MVFR and eventually widespread IFR during the
early overnight hours.

IFR conditions, with localized drops to LIFR cigs, will persist
through early Monday morning alongside the rain showers and
mist. Winds are also expected to gradually weaken throughout the
overnight period, with moderate gusts beginning to diminish
after 02Z. Cigs will gradually improve back up to MVFR by late
Monday morning as shower activity decreases, with persistent
low-level moisture keeping MVFR cigs locked in across the region
through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...23