462
FXUS61 KALY 292320
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
720 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east of New England early tonight
with cooler and drier air moving back into the region to start the
Labor Day Holiday weekend. Fair and pleasant weather with moderating
temperatures are expected tomorrow through the holiday. Temperatures
will run near to above normal through the middle of next week with
the next chance of a widespread rainfall on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT...A cold front continues to move across
eastern NY into western New England with scattered showers and a
few isolated thunderstorms. A strong closed H500 low is
situated over southern Quebec into northern NY. The latest SPC
mesoanalysis has 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE over extreme eastern NY
into western New England. The modest instability will limit the
updraft heights for any t-stroms with just some gusty winds and
a brief burst of rainfall, especially for the Taconics into
western New England for the rest of the afternoon into the early
evening. Strong cold advection will occur in the wake of the
front tonight with the skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly
clear. If the winds completely decouple some radiational cooling
may occur. We did add some patchy fog over the upper Hudson
Valley/Lake George Region/southern Dacks and possibly the CT
River Valley near southern VT with lows in the 40s with a few
upper 30s over the western Dacks and eastern Catskills.

Broad cyclonic flow continues aloft with the closed H500 low
moving slowly east/northeast to northern Maine. H500 temps will
be -2 to -3 STDEVs according to the latest NAEFS. The cold pool
aloft and steep mid level lapse rates will allow for plenty of
instability cumulus to form. It will be partly to mostly cloudy
with breezy west northwest winds and cool with our temps
lowered closer to the MET/MAV MOS and a little cooler than the
NBM values with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s in the
valleys and upper 50s to mid 60s over the higher terrain. A few
sprinkles or light showers may occur over the southern Dacks and
southern Greens. The skies will quickly clear Sat night with
light to calm winds for ideal radiational cooling conditions and
some patchy valley fog near the major river valleys with lows
in the 40s with some upper 30s in the Adirondack Park, southern
Greens and eastern Catskills.

Sunday into Labor Day...High pressure builds in from the Great
Lakes Region from the Midwest and Great Lakes Region, as the mid
and upper level low moves down stream into the Canadian
Maritimes. The subsidence from the anticyclone will yield mostly
sunny skies and pleasant conditions with highs in the mid 60s
to lower 70s over the higher terrain and mid and upper 70s in
the valleys on Sunday. After another cool night with lows in
the mid 40s to lower 50s, expect max temps for Labor Day with
a rebound to near seasonable levels with partly to mostly sunny
skies with the sfc high overhead. A few locations in the Hudson
River Valley could be near 80F with widespread 70s across most
of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The extended forecast opens with fair and dry weather to
continue through the mid week with high pressure over the
Northeast and the mid Atlantic States. Mid and upper level
heights rise aloft with a closed anticyclone briefly over the
region. Max temps will be near to slightly above normal
according to the NBM with 70s to lower 80s.

Clouds increase ahead of a digging mid and upper level over the
central CONUS Wed night. A few showers associated with a warm
front may get close to the western Mohawk Valley and the western
Adirondacks. The chances of showers increase ahead of a low
pressure system and a cold front approaching from the Great
Lakes Region and Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, as the full-latitude
mid and upper level trough becomes negatively tilted, a coastal
low may bring a widespread rainfall on Friday. NBM probabilities
supported high chances for rainfall Thu-Fri in the 35-50% range
which may aid in the drier than normal conditions for August.
Temps fall back a few degrees below normal by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals
with decreasing clouds behind a cold frontal passage. Favored
flying conditions will remain in place throughout the majority
of the next 24 hours, though MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
to take hold of KGFL and KPSF overnight due to fog development.
But with plenty of sunshine tomorrow morning, fog will burn off
rather quickly, yielding the reinforcement of VFR conditions at
these sites through the remainder of the period. Winds are
currently breezy out of the north to northwest at sustained
speeds ranging from 5 to 13 kt. As we continue to lose daylight,
speeds will decrease until light to calm overnight. Tomorrow,
winds will increase out of the northwest once again with
sustained speeds reaching 5 to 10 kt and gusts up to 20 kt
especially at KALB and KPSF.

Outlook...

Saturday Night to Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Gant