646
FXUS61 KALY 251811
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
111 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will bring some rain to eastern New York
and western New England tonight.  Some isolated to scattered showers
will persist on Wednesday associated with a low pressure system and
a cold front.  A much colder air mass will build in for Thanksgiving
with blustery and cold conditions with lake effect snow showers
continuing through Friday, as some heavier snow totals may occur
over the western Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 AM EST, high/mid level clouds overspreading the
region, allowing temps to level off in the upper 20s to
lower/mid 30s in most areas.

Shortwave across lower MS Valley will weaken as it tracks
northeast today. Despite weakening, a surge of strong isentropic
lift ahead of the feature will bring an area of light to
moderate rain for later this afternoon into tonight. Rain looks
to overspread area from SW to NE between 3 and 6 PM, with
periods of rain continuing into tonight. Rainfall amounts should
generally be 0.25-0.50" with highest amts expected across
northern portions of the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks extending
east into the Saratoga region and southern VT, as well as
portions of the SE Catskills extending into the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT. It will become a bit breezy this afternoon
just ahead of the rain, with some gusts of 20-25 mph possible
within portions of the Capital Region/Taconics. Highs mainly in
the 40s and lows tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A break in the rain is expected much of Wednesday as initial
surge of warm advection lifts north/east of the region. Expect
isolated/scattered showers and/or patchy drizzle, especially in
the afternoon. Showers should then increase from west to east
toward and after sunset ahead of approaching cold front. Strong
dynamics and some weak/shallow instability could support a low-
topped line of gusty rain showers along the cold front,
especially areas north of I-90 which will be closer to the
stronger upper level dynamics. Showers taper off after midnight,
with some lake effect snow showers developing across far
northern Herkimer County by daybreak. Lows in the mid 20s to mid
30s, coldest across the SW Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

 - Medium to high confidence in warning levels, heavy snowfall
   accumulations (40 to 80% of >7" over 72 hours) resulting from
   upslope and lake effect snowbands across northern Herkimer
   County and northwest Hamilton Counties Thursday afternoon
   through Friday night, where a Winter Storm Watch is in
   effect.

 - Medium to high confidence in advisory-level snowfall
   accumulations (40 to nearly 60% of >4" over 72 hours)
   resulting from upslope and lake effect snowbands across
   portions of the south central Herkimer County and northwest
   Fulton County Thursday afternoon into Friday.

 - Low to medium confidence in advisory-level wind gusts (30-60%
   >45 mph) across the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region,
   north/central Taconics and Berkshires Friday.

Lake Effect snow and strong winds will be the most impactful
issues during the long term. Deep instability, minimal
directional wind shear, and multi-lake connection suggest
potential large inland extent of snowbands Thursday afternoon
through Friday. Initially, west/southwest winds should favor
snowbands across northern Herkimer/northwest Hamilton Cos
Thursday afternoon and evening, before gradually shifting
southward with veering winds later Thursday night into Friday,
when snowbands may impact central/southern Herkimer County
extending into the central Mohawk Valley. Some extensions of
these bands could reach into the Capital Region, eastern
Catskills and Berkshires on Friday. Heaviest accumulations are
expected across northern Herkimer/northwest Hamilton Cos where
8-12" may occur. Farther south and east, there is more
uncertainty on overall accumulations which will depend on how
quickly they pivot southward with the veering winds. Bands
should become more multi-banded as they track farther southward
Friday afternoon/evening. Additional upslope snow showers are
expected across the Berkshires/southern VT late Thursday night
into Friday with several inches of snowfall expected. Snow
showers/lake effect snowbands should persist Friday night
across far SW Herkimer Co and into Schoharie Co and eastern
Catskills, then gradually decreasing on Saturday.

It will become breezy Thursday with west/southwest winds
reaching 25-35 mph at times. However, as winds veer into the
west/northwest Friday and channel down the Mohawk Valley, even
stronger gusts will be possible, reaching at least 35-45 mph.
However, there is some possibility for stronger wind gusts, with
01Z/25 NBM 24-hour max wind gusts probs >45 mph ending 1 AM Sat
at 30-60% across the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, eastern
Catskills and Berkshires.

Another system approaching from the west may bring some
precipitation late Sunday into Monday, which could start as a
some snow or a wintry mix for areas mainly north of I-90.

Cooler temps overspread the region Thanksgiving Day, with highs
ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s in higher terrain, and
lower/mid 40s in valleys. Colder Fri-Sat with highs mainly in
the 20s for higher elevations and 30s in valleys. Gradual
moderation expected Sun-Mon, with highs reaching the 30s and
40s. Overnight lows mainly in the 20s Thursday morning and
Monday morning, and teens/20s Fri-Sun mornings.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z/Wed...VFR conditions will be place this afternoon at all
sites with BKN-OVC high clouds in place. A low pressure system will
then bring a period of rain to the TAF sites beginning between
21z/Tue and 00z/Wed and continuing through 06-08z/Wed before
transitioning to scattered showers and/or drizzle until 12z/Wed.
Cigs/vsbys will quickly lower to IFR/MVFR thresholds shortly after
the onset of rainfall and remain in this range through the rest of
the overnight. Some improvement to MVFR is expected by late morning
all TAF sites except KPSF where low clouds and drizzle may persist
through this TAF period. Wind will generally be southerly at 5-15 kt
at all sites today, then less than 10 kt tonight. South to southwest
winds from 5 to 10 kts are expected on Wednesday. A period of LLWS
is possible at all sites, mainly between 00-06z/Wed, as winds at
2000 feet increase to 35-45 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Thanksgiving Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 34 kts. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 37 kts. Chance of SHSN.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 31 kts. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for NYZ032-033-038.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...09