677
FXUS61 KALY 021838
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
238 PM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will diminish
early this evening over the southern Adirondacks, as high pressure
will continue to bring fair and dry weather through tomorrow.  A
cold front and a strong upper level disturbance will bring showers
and a few thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon into Friday. Another
cold front will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday, as cooler and drier weather returns to close the weekend
and open next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message:

- Beneficial moderate rainfall (50-80%) late Thu afternoon into
  Fri morning, especially areas west of I-87.

As of 238 PM EDT...An upper level trough continues to lift
north/northeast of Lake Ontario and northern NY into southeast
Canada this afternoon. The associated cold pool with weak
elevated instability around 500 J/kg on the latest SPC RAP
mesoanalysis may continue to trigger some isolated
showers/t-storms over the southern Dacks where slight and low
chance PoPs were maintained until sunset. The skies will clear
with the loss of the diurnal heating for lows to fall into the
mid 40s to lower 50s due to radiational cooling with calm winds
with the surface high near NY and New England. Some patchy
radiational fog will redevelop in the major valley areas.

Another nice day is expected on Wed with the sfc anticyclone
near the Gulf of Maine and southern New England.  H850 temps
will be near normal and the subsidence from the sfc high will
yield mostly sunny conditions and max temps will be near to
slightly above normal with upper 70s to near 80F readings in
the valleys and upper 60s to mid 70s over the higher terrain. An
isolated shower may occur over northern Hamilton County.
Tranquil weather persists Wed night with some cirrus increasing
from the west ahead of a cold front and a mid and upper level
trough. Heights fall upstream with the sfc anticyclone moving
into the western Atlantic. Lows Wed night will be in the mid 40s
to mid 50s and may rise with the increasing southerly winds.

A strong upper level trough approaches from the Midwest and the
Great Lakes Region. The trough deepens and amplifies into the
eastern CONUS though THU. The low-level south to southwest flow
increases for breezy (south/southeast winds 10-20 mph with some
gusts 25-35 mph) conditions to develop and we leaned closer to
the 90th percentile of the NBM winds and gusts for Thu pm. The
best upper level dynamics and low-level convergence indicate
greatest probabilities for rain showers and a chance of
thunderstorms will be over the west-southwest Dacks, western
Mohawk Valley and northern Catskills Thu pm. The moisture
convergence increases, as PWATs increase 1-2 STDEVs above normal.
Some modest instability may be in place for a slight to low
chance of thunderstorms. The band or bands of rainfall with the
showers/embedded thunderstorms will slide eastward across the
region Thu night, where we increased the PoPs into the likely
and categorical range over most of eastern NY and western New
England. The best chance of an inch or more of rainfall prior to
18Z/2 pm Fri in 24 hours will be west of I-87 and the Hudson
River Valley/Lake George corridor. The latest NBM probabilities
are 30-80% from the Capital Region/southern VT north and west
for greater than 0.50" rainfall before noontime Fri. The rain
showers will diminish Friday morning with partly cloudy skies from
the Capital Region north and west with the cold front passing
through.

Max temps on Thu ahead of the front will be a little above
normal with upper 70s to lower 80s below 1000 ft in elevations
with upper 60s to mid 70s above it. Wet bulb cooling from the
showers and milder conditions Thu night with lows in the 50s to
lower 60s. A few upper 40s may occur in the western Dacks. Temps
Friday will be near normal with mid 60s to mid 70s over the
higher terrain and mid 70s to around 80F in the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

- Patchy frost possible across portions of the southern
  Adirondacks Mon and Tue mornings.

The mean longwave trough remains over the eastern CONUS with a
secondary cold front and an embedded short-wave impacting the
forecast area Fri night through Sat. Additional rainfall is
possible with scattered showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms on Sat. It will be a bit humid with sfc dew points
in the 50s to lower 60s. The thunderstorms are not expected to
be severe at this time due to limited instability, but some
additional beneficial rainfall may occur. Lows open the weekend
in the 50s to lower 60s. High temps will be in the 60s to lower
70s over the mtns and mid 70s to lower 80s over the higher
terrain.

The secondary cold front moves through with a better surge of
cold advection. The showers end early Sat night with clearing
towards Sun. A few lake enhanced showers may reach the western
Adirondacks, but a drier day is expected to close the the
weekend with temps near or slightly below normal by 5 to 7
degrees. Highs may only reach the mid 50s to mid 60s over the
higher terrain with upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys. High
pressure building in Sun night into Mon may yield some chilly
temps with patchy frost over the Adirondack Park. Lows will be
in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

The sfc anticyclone will be over the Northeast for Monday into
Tuesday with dry weather continuing. Temps were accepted close
to the NBM which will be running a little below normal for early
Sept by about 5 degrees or so. Some patchy or scattered frost is
possible in the southern Dacks Tue morning again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through this
afternoon with FEW to SCT cumulus ranging from 4-6 kft and
variable winds generally less than 5 knots. Clear skies and calm
winds will allow for patchy IFR fog to develop at KGFL/KPSF from
06z-12z. Any fog that develops is expected to dissipate by 13Z
and VFR conditions will prevail through Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30 kts. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...Chance of TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind gusts of 25-35 mph Thursday, along with RH values possibly
as low as 40-50% Thursday afternoon...

Tightening low level pressure gradient ahead of approaching cold
front will allow south to southeast winds to increase Thursday
afternoon to 10-20 mph, with some gusts of 25-35 mph possible,
especially within north-south oriented valleys. In addition, RH
values could briefly fall as low as 40-50 percent Thursday
afternoon before the rainfall arrives.

A widespread wetting rainfall is likely Thursday night into
Friday morning.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Humphrey
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Wasula