956
FXUS61 KALY 291055
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
655 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added fog to tonight`s forecast as clouds give way to clearing.
Otherwise, no significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) After one last cloudy day today with a few isolated showers
still around, we turn drier and warmer than normal tomorrow and
Thursday.

2) Increasing confidence an incoming cold front on Friday will
result in a period of showers for much of eastern NY and western
New England. However, medium to high confidence in total
rainfall amounts falling under 1 inch means flooding is not
anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The remnants of our nor`easter and associated parent low aloft
will continue to slowly decay over New England today with
plenty of low and mid-level moisture lingering overhead. While a
positively tilted ridge will build eastward into western NY/PA
today, its ridge axis will remain displaced well to our west
most of the day. Therefore, expecting yet another dreary day
under mostly cloudy skies with a few isolated showers still
around (including drizzle/mist this morning); however, we will
not experience widespread steady showers as we did the past few
days. The ridge finally builds east enough this evening to
support partial clearing skies. However, with plenty of low-
level moisture still in place, any clearing can easily support
areas of fog tonight, especially in valley areas. Then, our
upper level ridge and sfc high take control of the Northeast
Wednesday into Thursday supporting a stretch of dry weather with
temperatures trending warmer than normal thanks to persist
southwest flow aloft advecting a warmer air mass into the
region. In fact, there is at least a 70% chance that high
temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday exceed 75 degrees in
valley areas. While temperatures aloft will be quite warm,
moisture streaming up and over a closed high parked over the
Southeast U.S should support at least partly cloudy skies,
limiting temperatures from becoming unseasonably warm. NBM
probabilities show only a few isolated areas with less than a
20% chance for highs either day to exceed 80 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

High pressure slides off the East Coast by Thursday with a split
flow pattern setting up as a ridge of high pressure remains
parked over the Southeast U.S while another shortwave within
the northern branch of the jet stream slides eastward through
the northern Great Lakes. A cold front ahead of the trough will
progress eastward across New York into western New England on
Friday. Southwest flow around the periphery of ridge centered to
our south looks to support a moisture fetch out of the eastern
Pacific, funneling plenty of moisture north and eastward from
the Desert Southwest into the Great Lakes/Northeast. Latest
NAEFS show PWATs within this moisture plume ranging 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal and becoming focused ahead of
our incoming cold front. While there is increasing confidence
that this set-up will likely support a period of rain (steady at
times) as the front tracks northwest to southeast during the
day Friday (favoring Fri afternoon), fast flow aloft will allow
steady rain to be rather progressive. In fact, NBM probabilistic
guidance shows less than a 20% chance for rainfall amounts to
exceed 0.50" regionwide. Therefore, flooding issues are not
anticipated. Otherwise, Friday will remain warmer than normal
before a strong area of high pressure quickly rebuilds over the
Northeast for Saturday, trending temperatures down closer to
normal and giving us a dry start to the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12 UTC Wednesday...Abundant low level moisture and
patchy drizzle/mist persisting into this morning will maintain
IFR Cigs at ALB, GFL and PSF until closer to 14 - 16 UTC when
cigs should improve to MVFR. MVFR cigs continue at all terminals
through 23 - 00 UTC when some breaks may occur. Given the low-
level moisture that will still be in place, any breaks can
easily support fog. Thus, we show vis degrading to IFR/MVFR at
all terminals by 06 - 09 UTC with cigs staying IFR/MVFR. Light
and variable winds through early morning become mainly north to
northeast around than 5-7 KT. Strongest at PSF with gusts up to
12kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...31