485
FXUS61 KALY 200544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1244 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to allow for dry and chilly weather
for today into tonight. It will turn a little milder for Friday
with the chance for some rain showers for Friday into Friday
night thanks to a pair of fast moving storm systems. Much of the
weekend looks dry with seasonable temperatures, with next chance
for rain returning on Tuesday of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1244 AM EST...Surface high pressure (analyzed around 1026
hpa) is centered west of the area over the Finger Lakes. This
high pressure area allowed for fairly clear skies earlier in
the evening, which has let temperatures drop into the teens and
20s across the entire area. Despite the high pressure still in
place, a weak upper level disturbance passing by to the north,
combined with a jet streak aloft, is allowing for a large area
of mid and high level clouds to spread into the area from the
west. This should keep temps from falling off too much more for
the rest of the overnight, although it will be a chilly start to
the day with temps in the teens and 20s. Areas further north
over the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys have seen some
fog/freezing fog develop thanks to the clear evening, but with
the increasing clouds, won`t expect much more of this to
develop, so haven`t included this for our area for this morning.

Behind the morning mid/high clouds, skies should be fairly clear
for much of the area today, as the high pressure slowly slides
from Upstate New York this morning and into New England for this
afternoon. Temps will continue to be a little below normal with
highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Although skies will be fairly clear this evening, clouds will be
increasing for the late night hours, as the next system starts
to approach. With the increasing clouds, temps won`t be quite as
cold for tonight, but still fairly chilly in the mid to upper
20s. Based on the latest model guidance, it should continue to
stay dry tonight as the best forcing for precip and moisture
won`t arrive until Friday.

On Friday, a northern stream system will be approaching from the
Great Lakes. This boundary is fairly moisture starved and won`t
have much precip associated with it. Meanwhile, another system
within the southern stream will be located over the Ohio Valley
and it will be heading towards the northern mid Atlantic for
Friday evening into Friday night. A wave of low pressure looks
to develop along this boundary, although there continues to be
some differences in the guidance regarding the exact track and
strength of this system. There should be more moisture
associated with this system compared to the other feature to the
north.

For now, have leaned close to the NBM guidance showing slight
chc to chc POPs. Highest probabilities for precip will be across
far northwestern areas for Friday and southern areas for Friday
evening into Friday night. With a southerly flow in place,
warming temps (both aloft and at the surface) will keep any
precip as plain rain showers. QPF is fairly light and even
southern areas will see under a quarter of an inch. Highs will
be in the 40s to low 50s on Friday and temps will fall into the
mid 20s to mid 30s behind the departing storm systems by late
Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quiet weather will return for the weekend into early next week
behind the departing storm system will seasonable temperatures.
A northern stream disturbance passing across Canada could bring
a quick rain or snow shower to the Adirondacks on Sunday or
Monday, otherwise, no precip is expected with a partly cloudy
sky. Highs will be in the 40s for valley areas with lows in the
20s and 30s.

The next system looks to impact the region at some point around
Tuesday or Wednesday. Model and ensemble guidance all suggest
this will be a system approaching from the southwest, so it will
be primarily a rain event. A brief mix or period of snow cannot
be totally ruled out at the onset across the Adirondacks or
southern VT, but most of the area will see only rain with this
system. Current NBM probabilities show about a 30-50% chance of
0.50" but most areas (outside of the Catskills) are under a 20%
chance to see over 1.00" of precip for Tues-Wed. While temps
will be seasonable with this event, it does look to turn colder
behind the departing frontal boundary for Thanksgiving and
beyond. CPC Day 8-14 Outlook shows temps leaning below normal
during this period, so it may start to feel more wintry to close
the month.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period for all TAF sites.
High level clouds continue to move through eastern New York and
western New England today. Calm winds continue through this morning
with light and variable winds for this afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...27
SHORT TERM...27
LONG TERM...27
AVIATION...05