679
FXUS61 KALY 101028
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
628 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon. Some storms could be severe, mainly
along and south of Interstate 90.


2) Another round of showers and possible storms is expected
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Severe weather is not
expected with this second round.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Main forecast concern today continues to be another round of
showers and storms as a shortwave trough, embedded in west-
northwest flow aloft, approaches during the late morning and
afternoon hours. This feature, combined with a northward
lifting warm front, in a weak to moderately unstable airmass,
will set the stage for another round of storms, some of which
may become severe. As a result, SPC has maintained a Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) for areas along and south of Interstate 90.

Available high-res models to include both the HRRR and 3km NAM,
show developing storms after the 18z timeframe. Fcst soundings
from across the area show steep low-level lapse rates thanks to
temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s later today.
This combined with increasing moisture advection behind the
warm front, should support MLCAPE values from 1000-1500 J/kg
across the area later today. Despite decent synoptic forcing
with the approaching shortwave, main limiting factor for a more
widespread severe threat appears to be weaker deep layered shear
fields as 0-6km bulk shear values are expected to range from
30-35 kts eastern NY and western New England, while stronger
shear values remain out west across the southern Ontario and
western New York.

Given decent dry air aloft along with steep low-level lapse
rates, the main threat with any storms that approach severe
limits will be damaging wind gusts. That said, a humid airmass
will once again lead to efficient rainfall with any storms, and
WPC has also maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for the
entire fcst area. Storms should track east and gradually weaken
after the 00z timeframe with loss of daytime heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The next chance for rain will be Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as another shortwave trough and associated cold front
approach the region.  As of right now, precipitation looks to
move in after the 00z Thursday time frame. Given the time of
day, instability looks to remain fairly limited, and thunder
activity should be isolated in nature.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry air advection, combined with upper cirrus from decaying
storms to our west, has prevented vsby restrictions at both GFL
and PSF. For now, have removed mention of restrictions early
this morning, however will need to watch trends over the next
hour or so. Assuming trends remain on track, VFR conditions
should prevail across all the terminals from the morning through
the afternoon before showers and thunderstorms move in from the
west. Model guidance shows the possibility of thunderstorms
from about 21z to 03z. Lowered vsbys and gusty winds are
possible where thunderstorms develop. Beyond this, concerns will
then shift to possible fog/low stratus potential at GFL and PSF
later tonight. High-res models suggest both locations will see
restrictions developing overnight and have trended in this
direction with this fcst update.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION...32/53