696
FXUS61 KALY 051754
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1254 PM EST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions continue through tonight with increasing clouds. A
weather system arrives tomorrow morning bringing an onset of snow,
changing over to a wintry mix late tomorrow morning and early
afternoon before departing to the north and east by tomorrow
evening. Chances of lake effect snow across the western Adirondacks
Friday, then potential for another weather system for this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Updates:

As of 12:45 PM EST...Skies are clear this afternoon across
eastern New York and western New England. Minor update to
increase wind gusts across the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital
District, southern Vermont and the Berkshires as winds have been
gusting between 15 and 25 mph this early afternoon. Winds will
continue to be periodically gusting between 15 and 25 mph
through this afternoon. Otherwise the rest of the forecast is
doing well and on track for this afternoon.

As of 9:35 AM EST...A minor update to decrease hourly
temperatures a few degrees to match current surface observations
across the western Adirondacks. Based on NYS Mesonet data, Old
Forge to Raquette Lake have been observing between negative 2
and negative 7 the last two hours. These locations should
continue to slowly warm today. Otherwise the rest of the
forecast is doing well and on track for today.

As of 623 AM EST, variable cloudiness to start the day
with temperatures starting out in the single digits and teens
for most areas with portions of the mid-Hudson Valley in the
lower 20s and the Adirondacks below zero. Old Forge is the cold
spot this morning at -17F per the NYS Mesonet.

Discussion:
High pressure building overhead will bring partly
to mostly sunny and dry weather through this afternoon.
Temperatures will rebound into the teens and 20s for most areas
with some lower 30s across portions of the mid-Hudson Valley.
While it will not be as windy as on Tuesday, a few wind gusts
over 20 mph will be possible, especially into the early
afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

 - A low pressure system will bring snow and mixed precipitation
   to the region late tonight through Thursday.

 - A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all of eastern New
   York and western New England.

Discussion:

High pressure will quickly depart the region tonight as a low
pressure system approaches from the south and west. Most of the
night will be dry with increasing clouds. With light winds
expected by the evening hours, temperatures may fall quickly
before holding steady or slowly rising toward daybreak. Lows
will generally dip back into the single digits and teens except
below zero across the Adirondacks.

A surge of warm air and moisture advection and isentropic lift
ahead of the approaching low pressure system will bring a
period of precipitation to the region starting late tonight and
continuing through the day Thursday. Precipitation will start
out as snow across all areas with the atmospheric column all
below freezing. Strong FGEN along the leading edge of
precipitation could lead to snow falling moderate to locally
heavy for its duration (there could also be a period that the
strongest lift intersects the DGZ which could lead to efficient
precipitation rates). Most areas look to receive a roughly 2-4
hour period of snow during Thursday morning. Precipitation will
then transition to a wintry mix later in the morning into the
early afternoon as a warm nose develops aloft. Surface
temperatures should be cold enough in most areas that
precipitation first transitions to a period of sleet. As the
warm nose continues to increase and surface temperatures slowly
rise, a mid-level dry slot enters the region resulting in a loss
of ice in the cloud. Therefore, precipitation likely
transitions to light freezing rain/drizzle or plain drizzle by
the afternoon hours, pending surface temperatures. Most of the
precipitation looks to depart the region by the early evening
hours.

Snowfall totals look to range from 1-4 inches across most of the
region with a light glaze to locally one tenth of an inch of
ice. Given the variety of precipitation types and impacts to
travel, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all of
eastern New York and western New England.

Temperatures by Thursday afternoon look to reach the lower to
mid-30s for many areas except portions of the Adirondacks, Upper
Hudson Valley and into the southern Greens and Connecticut River
Valley likely stay in the mid to upper 20s. Even if air
temperatures rise above freezing, water will likely still
freeze on untreated and elevated surfaces.

The return of colder air aloft and the passage of a cold front
will result in the redevelopment of lake effect and upslope snow
showers Thursday night continuing into Friday. Flow will start
southwesterly then veer to more west-northwesterly. This would
direct the band mainly across the southern portions of the
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley. Upslope snow showers will
favor the northern and central Taconics, southern Vermont and
the northern Berkshires. An additional 1 to 4 inches of snow
will be possible. Winds will pick up in the wake of the front
resulting in a breezy day on Friday with frequent wind gusts
between 25 and 35 mph. High pressure building into the region
Friday night will gradually end the snow shower activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message:

 - Another storm system is expected to bring snow and/or mixed
   precipitation late Saturday into Sunday, with a 60-80 percent
   chance of greater than 4 inches of snow and a 10-30 percent
   chance of greater than 0.1 inches of ice.

Discussion:

Saturday starts out dry with ridging extending north from high
pressure centered near the mid Atlantic coast. Temperatures look
to be near normal. Attention then shifts to a progressive open
wave aloft and associated surface cyclone quickly approaching
from the Ohio Valley. A strengthening low level jet and warm
advection ahead of the surface cyclone will bring a period of
moderate precipitation across the entire region. Best estimate
on timing is late Sat into Sun morning for the bulk of the
storm. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance show the
primary surface cyclone tracking directly over or just north of
our area, while a secondary low develops near the southern New
England coast. Depending on the strength of the coastal low,
enough cold air could get locked in for a decent period of snow
Sat night before a transition to sleet and/or freezing rain as
the warm nose aloft moves in by early Sun morning. So while
there is low confidence in exact precip types, there is somewhat
higher confidence for a plowable snowfall (24-hour probs of
60-80% for > 4" snow mainly north and east of Albany ending 7 PM
Sunday, and 30-50% for >7" north and east of Albany) and
impactful ice (10-30% for > 0.1" ice across the eastern
Catskills and mid Hudson Valley) from the NBM probabilities.
Will continue to monitor trends.

In wake of the weekend storm, surface high pressure will build
east across the mid Atlantic region with a zonal flow aloft Sun
night into Mon. This should result in relatively tranquil
weather aside from a few lake effect snow showers well
north/west of Albany with slightly below normal temperatures and
lingering gusty winds. In this active pattern, the next system
will start to approach from the south/west late Tue. However,
guidance differs considerably with regards to the storm track.
This storm does look to track farther south than the weekend
storm, resulting in either snow for parts of the area or no
precip if the storm tracks too far south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected prior to 09Z/THU
with mid and high clouds thickening and lowering initially ahead of
a warm front, as high pressure moves east of New England late this
afternoon into tonight.  Snow will rapidly overspread KPOU north to
KALB/KPSF between 10Z-13Z/THU with vsbys/cigs lowering to IFR/MVFR
levels, and then to IFR/LIFR levels especially in terms of vsbys
with moderate or even heavy snow prior to 15Z-17Z/Thu.  KGFL will
see the snow move in 13Z-15Z/THU and it will become moderate to
heavy quickly with IFR/LIFR conditions.  The snow will transition to
mix of snow/sleet at KALB/KPSF between 16Z-18Z/THU, and a mix of
sleet/freezing rain at KPOU 15Z-18Z/Thu with warmer air aloft and
cold subfreezing air trapped at the sfc.  Flight conditions will
still remain IFR with instances of LIFR for the end of the TAF
cycle.

The winds will be west/northwest 8-13 KT at KALB/KPSF this afternoon
with some gusts around 20 KT.  KPOU/KGFL will vary in direction with
winds generally less than 10 KT.  The winds will become calm or
variable in direction at 4 KT or less after 00Z/THU and will
generally be east to southeast at 4-8 KT in the late morning into
the afternoon.

LLWS will become an issue for some of the TAF sites toward 12Z/THU,
as the 2 KFT winds increase to 30-35 KT from the southeast, and the
sfc winds remain 5 KT or less.  The LLWS was placed in the KPSF/KPOU
after 12Z/THU, and later TAF issuances can monitor and evaluate if
it is needed to expand northward.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SN.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ038-040-047>049-051>054-058>061-063>066.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     NYZ032-033-039-041>043-050-082>084.
MA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Webb
NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Webb
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...KL/JPV
AVIATION...Wasula