179
FXUS61 KALY 171843
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
Issued by National Weather Service Burlington VT
243 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy and cool today and tomorrow with scattered areas of
showers. After the warm front moves through the area Wednesday
night, warm and humid air will surge into the region on Thursday
ahead of a cold front. This cold front on Thursday may result
in strong to even severe thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Widespread cloudy skies today with scattered areas of light
showers as weak low and mid-level warm air and moisture advection
continues. A few more organized areas of rain have tracked
through the mid-Hudson Valley into NW CT as weak shortwaves
embedded in the southwest flow aloft track through. With our
sfc warm front stalled well to our south near the VA/NC border,
much of the Northeast and mid- Atlantic remains within the cool
conveyor belt ahead of the front and plagued with this cool and
cloudy day. We trended temperatures downwards today a few
degrees based on trends and forecast soundings which show low
stratus lingering much of the day. Highs only expected to reach
into the mid to upper 60s with some near 70 in the immediate
Hudson Valley but that may even be tough to achieve.

Heading into tonight, weak warm air and moisture advection
continues maintaining cloudy skies and mild temperatures. The
clouds and increased humidity/muggy conditions will keep it mild
tonight with overnight lows only falling into the mid-60s. A few
addition light showers remain possible overnight (mainly south
of I-90) as weak shortwaves continue tracking within the
southwest flow aloft.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded to a slight risk
  (level 2 to 5) for severe weather on Thursday as a potent
  cold front tracks eastward across the Northeast with damaging
  winds the primary hazard.

- Confidence is increasing that the combination of hot
  temperatures and uncomfortable humidity on Thursday will
  necessitate heat advisories, especially in the mid-Hudson
  Valley, Litchfield County, CT, into the Capital Region. There
  is a 30 to 50% chance for high temperatures to reach or exceed
  90 degrees in these areas, which would result in heat index
  values or the "feel-like temperatures" climbing into the mid
  to upper 90s.

Discussion:

Cloudy skies continue in Wednesday morning with a few scattered
showers as our mid-level warm front lifts north across the
region as mid-level shortwaves track overhead while our sfc
warm front continues to slowly lift north through the mid-
Atlantic. By midday into the afternoon, the sfc warm front will
finally begin lifting from south to north across eastern NY and
western New England. This will allow sfc winds to shift from the
southeast and become more southerly with low stratus clouds
lifting and even giving way to breaks of afternoon sun. Given
ongoing southwest flow aloft advecting moisture from the Gulf
into the Northeast, PWATs will remain quite high with values
from both the NAEFS and ENS ~2 inches which ranks in the 99th
percentile of the CFSR climatology. Such values also exceed the
90th of the SPC sounding climatology for June 18. Thus, such a
moisture environment will easily generate instability as breaks
of sun develop, especially areas west of the Hudson which should
break for sun first and thus have more time to recover. Forecast
soundings continue to favor a "tall-skinny" signature with FZ
levels nearing 13kft and rather slow unidirectional shear
(~20-30kts) through the column supportive of more of a heavy
rain rather than severe weather hazard from any storms that
develop. WPC has introduced a "marginal risk" in its Day 2
Excessive Rainfall Outlook covering the mid-Atlantic into the
mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills and NW CT which matches up
with areas where the highest instability can develop. Given that
breaks of sun hold off until the afternoon hours, overall
instability values are meager, generally limited to around 500
maxing out near 1000 J/kg and again favored south/west of the
Capital District. Any thunderstorm can produce heavy downpours
resulting localized poor drainage and urbanized flooding.
Otherwise, it will be warmer and very humid tomorrow with
temperatures warming quickly once clouds break for sun rising
into the upper 70s to low 80s in valley areas.

Storms/showers diminish with the loss of daytime heating and
we should trend drier Wednesday night. The sfc warm front finally
lifts north of the area Wed night but given such a muggy air
mass, temperatures will not cool much only falling into the mid
to upper 60s with patchy fog developing where rain occurred
during the day and skies can at least partially clear.

Attention then turns to Thursday when confidence has increased
for both heat and severe weather impacts. An intensifying
shortwave trough and deepening sfc low tracking northeastward
through Ontario and strengthening southwesterly winds ahead of
the low will advect an even warmer air mass into the Northeast
with 850 hPa isotherms +17C to +20C. Any early fog/stratus
quickly give way to morning sun and as southerly winds turn a
bit breezy supporting deep boundary layer mixing, temperatures
will likely rise into the mid to upper 80s, topping out in the
low 90s in immediate valley areas in the afternoon. Probabilistic
guidance has trended upward showing a 30 to 50% chance for
temperatures to exceed 90 in valley areas Thurs afternoon. The
combination of high humidity and very warm temperatures will
result in heat index values around or slightly above 95 degrees
in valley areas Thursday P.M which likely will necessitate heat
advisories. Will continue to monitor but heat sensitive
populations should be mindful of potential heat related impacts
(heat stroke/heat exhaustion) on Thursday and limit unnecessary
or strenuous outdoor activities. WPC`s HeatRisk continues to
show much of our valley areas in its "moderate" or level 2
categories as well.

As such a warm and humid air mass spreads across the
Northeast, we will monitor an approaching cold front and upper
level parent trough tracking through Ontario. There remains
discrepancies on timing and amplitude of the trough as some
guidance is more robust with the trough, suggesting it takes on
a neutral to even negative tilt resulting in rapid height falls
downwind extending into eastern NY and western New England
during peak heating. Needless to say, the air mass ahead of it
will be primed with plenty of sfc based instability available as
mid-level lapse steepen and strong southwesterlies aloft
support deep layer shear values 40-45kts. Straight line
hodographs and shear vectors oriented parallel to the forcing
mechanism support a linear storm mode but some storms cluster
could develop ahead of the main cold front. Again, the timing
of the front will be key as we ascertain the severe weather
potential as an earlier arrival during afternoon peak heating
would increase the potential for severe weather. Damaging winds
is the primary hazard from severe thunderstorms (especially if a
squall line develops ahead of the front) as well as heavy
downpours given the high PWATs. Given the favorable set-up and
strong forcing for ascent, SPC introduced a slight risk (level 2
to 5) its Day 3 Convective Outlook over much of eastern NY and
western New England for Thursday. WPC has blanketed much of the
Northeast in its "marginal risk" (level 1 of 4) for potential
localized flash flooding, mainly from storms that train/persist
over an area.

The trough axis/sfc cold front should push through the region by
Thursday evening, ending the severe weather potential. Winds
shift to the northwest in the wake of the front, advecting
relatively cooler and less humid air into the region. Overnight
lows fall into the mid to upper 50s with low 60s in valley
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing confidence for a period of above normal
  temperatures early next week. Probabilistic guidance shows 50
  to 90% chance for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees in valley
  areas on Monday. Heat indices may exceed 100 degrees.

Discussion:

Upper level troughing continues into Friday, resulting in
additional chances for showers, especially north of I-90.
Temperatures trend relatively cooler and less humid in the wake
of the front but it will still be seasonable for mid-June.
Upper level subsidence strengthens in the wake of the trough for
Saturday as high pressure builds into the Northeast, giving us a
very pleasant Saturday with seasonable temperatures. By Saturday
night into Sunday we will have to monitor a potential "ridge
roller" as large scale ridging and heat from the Midwest/Ohio
Valley builds eastward with guidance hinting at potential
shortwaves riding along the northern periphery that could
support additional areas of showers/thunderstorms. The hot air
mass looks to shift into the Northeast by the early part of
next week resulting in possible extreme heat conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mix of MVFR and IFR conditions, along with a cluster
of light showers affecting ALB and PSF, are currently being
observed. Moving forward, primarily IFR conditions can be expected
at all sites as ample low level moisture remains in place, with
additional periodic showers through about 12Z. Thereafter, a warm
front will have lifted to the northeast of our region, supporting
some increased mixing out of the low clouds with a trend towards
MVFR ceilings and P6SM visibilities. Winds generally southerly and
light through the period, increasing a bit towards the end of the
period; however, southeasterly winds near 10 knots with a few gusts
to 20 knots at PSF may persist for a few hours this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...