075
FXUS61 KALY 152322
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
722 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The system set to bring widespread showers to eastern New York
and western New England tomorrow has continued to show trends of
a more southerly track. Therefore, the QPF has therefore
decreased across portions of the region. New QPF values range
from about 0.25" to locally higher amounts up to 1".

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread rain showers tomorrow afternoon through Monday
morning will bring beneficial rain to the region. However,
locally heavy downpours could increase the potential for
isolated flash flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

After a beautiful day today, widespread chances for rain
increase once again for tomorrow as our current high begins to
shift to the east and a low pressure system approaches from the
west. By tomorrow afternoon, HiRes guidance indicates two
initial areas of showers spreading into eastern New York: one to
the northwest of Albany ahead of a surface wave, and another to
the southwest associated with the incoming system`s warm front.
Once the warm sector begins to enter our CWA, increasing warm
air and moisture advection will help to fill in the gap between
these two areas of showers, leading to more widespread coverage
by tomorrow evening. Rain showers will then persist through
tomorrow night into at least Monday morning, but potentially as
late as Monday afternoon, as the parent low and associated
shortwave aloft swing by to our south. The period of greatest
rainfall will occur tomorrow night into early Monday morning.

Generally, most of the rainfall rates contained within the
showers tomorrow through Monday morning will be light. In fact, the
latest HREF only shows isolated to highly scattered areas of
10-20% probabilities for at least 0.25" of rain per hour. That
said, there will be decent forcing for ascent as a result of
the causing system in addition to high precipitable water
content (PWATs ~1.6" to 2" which are 2-2.5 STDEVs above normal).
Therefore, embedded moderate to locally heavy downpours cannot
be ruled out. And as we have been largely dry so far this month,
the 0.25" to local 1" rainfall amounts that are anticipated
should be beneficial and not cause any widespread flooding
issues. This will be especially true if the system takes as
southerly a track and remains as progressive as the current
guidance would suggest. However, should the system slow and/or
shift a bit farther north, such that the heaviest rain sets up
over areas south of Albany, there could be an isolated instance
of flash flooding. This could also lead to locally higher
rainfall amounts, particularly in the Catskills, of up to 2".

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z/Mon, VFR conditions initially tonight, however
patchy ground fog will develop later tonight, allowing for
periods of IFR/LIFR Vsbys/Cigs at KGFL and KPSF after 07Z/Sun.
Chances for fog/low clouds at KALB and KPOU are less compared to
last night/this morning, and will keep out mention at this
time. Any fog/low clouds and IFR/LIFR conditions should
lift/improve to VFR by 12Z-14Z/Sunday. However, an approaching
warm front will bring increasing clouds in the afternoon, with
some spotty showers developing mainly after 20Z/Sun. Areas of
MVFR Cigs/Vsbys will be possible thereafter, especially at KGFL
toward 00Z/Mon.

Winds will become light/variable overnight through mid morning
Sunday, then trend into the south to southeast and increase to
5-10 KT by early Sunday afternoon, and 8-15 KT by late Sunday
afternoon with a few gusts up to 20-25 KT possible, especially
at KALB.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24