166
FXUS61 KALY 151755
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1255 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving across northern New York will bring
precipitation including freezing rain for parts of the Adirondacks,
Upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont. The western Mohawk Valley
and the Catskills may get a rumble of thunder. Behind the storm,
chilly and blustery conditions then arrive for Sunday through Monday
with lake effect and upslope snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message:

- Moderate to high confidence in a period of freezing rain late
  this afternoon into tonight for parts of the Adirondacks,
  Upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont. A Winter Weather
  Advisory is in effect for these areas starting between 4 PM
  and 7 PM today through 1 AM tonight.

- Increasing confidence for gusty winds and lake effect/upslope
  snow showers Sunday through Monday which can result in reduced
  visibility. There is a 50 to 75% chance for 24 hour maximum
  wind gusts Saturday night through Sunday night to exceed 40mph
  mainly down the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital District into
  western MA.

Discussion:

Quite the chilly start to the weekend with morning temperatures
in the 20s throughout eastern NY and western New England. While
skies start off fairly clear, we will see increasing clouds
through the day as moisture spills overtop an approaching ridge
axis. Upstream, we will be maintain a close eye on a rather
potent clipper developing ahead of a parent cyclone positioned
in the Hudson Bay and within the equatorward exit region of a
cyclonically curved jet nosing eastward out of the Midwest.
Strong height falls and upper level divergence will aid in the
clipper deepening as it tracks from the Great Lakes through
northern New England tonight with the sfc low deepening to
~980hPa. As the aforementioned ridge axis shifts through our
area this afternoon, warm air and moisture advection surging
ahead of its sfc warm front will allow a precipitation shield to
blossom over western/central NY and expand eastward. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, daytime temperatures will
remain rather cool today given a strengthening inversion that
will limit boundary layer mixing and an east to southeast wind
direction. After the chilly start, daytime highs will likely
struggle to rise out of the 30s in the hill towns and higher
terrain with even valley areas only peaking in the low to mid
40s.

The leading edge of the precipitation shield reaches areas
along and west of the Hudson River by 21 - 00 UTC and given dry
air noted on forecast soundings in the 925 - 800hPa layer, wet-
bulbing processes will cool the column. While most will be mild
enough to support plain rain, sfc temperatures in the southern
Adirondacks and parts of the Upper Hudson Valley likely cool
towards or even a few degrees under freezing as precipitation
begins around/shortly after sunset, supporting freezing rain.
We therefore expanded the winter weather advisory to include all
of Warren County (including Glens Falls) and northern Saratoga
County. Precipitation expands south and eastward this evening
into western New England with freezing rain still expected in
southern Greens. Temperatures along the higher elevations of the
Berkshires and in the Rensselaer Plateau look cool enough to
support pockets of freezing rain this evening but given limited
coverage, we held off on expanding the advisory further. Total
ice from freezing rain still expected to range from a light
glaze up to tenth of an inch or so (highest amounts in the
southern Greens) as the steady rate of precipitation and rather
short duration should limit ice accretion amounts.

The incoming warm sector is quite impressive with a notable
40-50kt jet in the 900-800hPa layer directing a moisture rich
and mild plume into the Northeast with PWATs nearing 1" and
850hPa isotherms +6C to +8C. Forecast soundings continue to show
a region of steep mid-level lapse rates (+6C to +7C/km)
resulting in elevated instability in the warm sector including
decreasing showalter values. While values are more supportive of
thunderstorms in western/central NY, the latest SPC Day 1
Convective Outlook includes parts of eastern NY in "general
thunder" given that the region of elevated instability slides
eastward this evening, albeit weakening. Thus, included slight
chance thunder in our northern/eastern Catskills regions through
Midnight. Regardless of thunder, still expecting this moisture
rich and dynamic system to produce a period of steady rain
through about 06 UTC before the best forcing exits to our east.
Also expecting a non-diruanl trend to temperatures tonight as
the coolest values will be this evening thanks to wet-bulb
processes before temperatures slowly rise into the upper 30s to
mid 40s as the steady precip exits.

The clipper continues to deepen as it exits into the Canadian
Maritime early on Sunday with a sharp wind shift to the west-
northwest as its cold front swings through the Northeast before
sunrise. Strong push of cold air advection combined with a
tightening sfc pressure gradient will support a well-mixed
boundary layer and blustery winds with temperatures falling
through the day. In fact, latest probabilistic guidance from the
NBM shows a 40 to 80% chance for 24 hour maximum wind gusts
Saturday night through Sunday night to exceed 40mph with the
highest values focused down the Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital
District into western MA due to channeled flow. There is a low
chance that we will need wind advisory for parts of these areas
(best chance in western MA). Beside the gusty winds, the
incoming cold air mass and broad troughing aloft spanning the
Great Lakes into the Northeast will elicit a lake effect and
upslope snow response. Guidance suggests the potential for a
multi-lake connection with single lake effect bands extending
well inland off Lake Ontario. The west-northwest flow direction
should keep the lake bands mainly south of I-90 and directed
more into the northern and eastern Catskills. Some bands can
even extend into parts of Hudson Valley and as far east as
western New England. Even without any lake bands, the strong
westerly flow will likely support upslope snow along the spine
of the Greens and the Taconics. Latest NBM probabilistic
guidance limits 2"+ snow amounts to the western Adirondacks
(mainly near and north of Route 28) but the exact placement and
duration/intensity of any lake band will determine snow amounts,
especially Sun P.M/evening when inversion heights rise and the
column turns cold enough to support snow accumulations for areas
outside of higher elevations. The gusty winds will likely
result in reduced visibility during any lake effect snow band.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lake effect and upslope snow continues Sunday night but the
inland extent diminishes as the upper level shortwave associated
with our clipper exits to our east and winds veer more to the
northwest Chilly temperatures and gusty winds continue
overnight as well. Broad troughing aloft and moist cyclonic
flow continues over the Great Lakes and Northeast into Monday
but the northwest wind orientation should limit the fetch over
Lake Ontario, keeping lake effect showers directed to the
eastern/northern Catskills and western Adirondacks at least for
the first half of the day. By the afternoon, an additional
shortwave tracking within the mean trough looks to back winds
more to the west, eliciting a stronger lake effect response.
However, the wind orientation continues to place bands mainly
south of the Mohawk Valley. Regardless of snow shower band
placements, it will remain blustery and quite chilly with at
least a 75% chance that most of the region (outside the mid-
Hudson Valley) remains below 40 degrees. In addition, there is a
50 to 80% chance for 24 hr max wind gusts from 1AM Mon to 1AM
Tues to exceed 35mph.

Subsidence finally builds overhead Monday night into Tuesday as
the trough gradually exits to our east and sfc high pressure
builds in. This will support drier weather heading into the
middle of the week but temperatures remain slightly cooler than
normal before trending closer to and even slightly above normal
for the end the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We start the TAF period with VFR conditions at all TAF sites.
Between 22z and 00z, increased confidence to include mention of
rain shower activity in TEMPO groups for lowering visibility
and ceilings in IFR/MVFR conditions for the onset timing of rain
showers. Rain shower activity continues through 6z for all TAF
sites. For KGFL, there could be a mix of freezing rain and rain
between 00z and 06z, but confidence is low to include mention in
the TAF as temperatures could be above freezing through 06z
timeframe. IFR/MVFR conditions continue to fluctuate until 12z
to 14z when conditions gradually improve with rain shower
activity ending and wind gusts increase to over 15 knots. While
winds this afternoon range between light and variable, by
tonight west/northwest winds increase to between 5 and 10 knots.
Beginning tomorrow morning, winds could gust between 15 and 20
knots increasing throughout the morning with gusts outside the
TAF frame (after 16/18z) gusting between 20 and 30 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SN.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 30
kts. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Sunday for NYZ033-041-042-082-083.
MA...None.
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Sunday for VTZ013-014.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...31
SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM...31
AVIATION...05