191
FXUS61 KALY 161038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
638 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast of New England will continue
to allow for dry weather for today, with a partly to mostly cloudy
sky and seasonable temperatures.  An approaching upper level
disturbance will allow for some showers on Tuesday, before
temperatures moderate above normal for Wednesday into Thursday.
Along with the warm and humid air mass will be the potential for
some thunderstorms on both Wednesday and Thursday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT...Surface high pressure remains anchored just
northeast of the region near the coast of eastern New England.
Meanwhile, a stationary front remains draped south of the region
over the mid Atlantic States. Without any forcing for precip
nearby, it looks to stay dry into the start of the day today.

IR satellite imagery shows a band of mid and high level clouds
over far southern areas. Some additional lower clouds are still
ongoing in some areas, especially for the high terrain. For
areas that saw some clearing, some patchy fog has been
developing and this may linger through about sunrise or so.

Overall, the pattern today is fairly similar to yesterday, with
nearly zonal flow in place. The low level flow will be out of
the south and temps aloft will be slowly warming through the
day. With more sun expected compared to yesterday, temps should
be a few degrees higher. Most valley areas will be in the low to mid
70s, with 60s for the high terrain. The warmest temps will be
across northern valley areas where the most sun is expected.
Some CAMs suggest a brief shower could develop over the
Adirondacks later today (similar to yesterday). Will mention an
isolated shower, but any precip looks very spotty and brief, as
forcing is weak and instability is limited.

For tonight, it will continue to be fairly quiet with a partly
to mostly cloudy sky and continued zonal flow aloft. Any
location that sees breaks in the clouds could have some patchy
fog develop again. Lows look to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
On Tuesday, temps and heights aloft will be slowly rising
through the day. A warm front will be start to approach from the
southwest and isentropic lift will be occurring. The flow aloft
will be starting to become more southwesterly and an upper level
disturbance within the flow will be lifting towards the area.
The combination of all of these features will be allowing for
some passing light rain showers on Tuesday, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours, from southwest to northeast. Precip
looks fairly light and no instability in place should keep any
thunder from occurring. Rainfall rates look manageable and no
flooding or hydro issues are anticipated, with most spots seeing
under a third of an inch. With the clouds and possible precip,
temps may be a little cooler than Monday, but still seasonable
in the 70s. Dewpoints will be creeping up into the 60s so it
will start to feel a little humid. It will remain muggy and mild
into Tuesday night with plenty of clouds and lows in the 60s as
well.

Our area will be within a warm sector for Wednesday, as the warm
front lifts north of the area. Temps aloft will be fairly warm,
with 850 hpa temps reaching +15 to +18 C. This will make for
afternoon highs in the 80s with it will feel like the upper 80s
to near 90 in some valley areas with the humidity. Heat Risk
will be in the Minor to Moderate Categories, so some heat
impacts are possible.

In addition, there may be a few afternoon showers or
thunderstorms around, although the best forcing will still be
off to the west, so activity will be fairly scattered. Models
suggest around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE will be available, but the
best lift and shear may still be off to the west closer to the
Great Lakes. AI/ML models agree that the best threat for
damaging storms look west of the area for Wednesday as well. Will
mention a chance for showers and thunderstorms, but the threat
for strong storms looks low at this time and most spots may not
see anything until Thursday. Wednesday night will be another
mild and sticky night with lows well into the 60s to near 70 in
many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures Thursday with chances of showers
  and storms, some potentially severe.

- Daily rain chances continue into the weekend with near normal
  temperatures Fri/Sat moderating back above normal Sunday.

Discussion:

Upper level trough and surface low will be just to the west of the
area as we start the long term period, which will set us up for an
active day in terms of storm chances and warmth. Ample southwesterly
flow at the surface and low-levels ahead of the trough will allow
advection of 15-20 degree Celsius temperatures at the 925-850 hPa
layer, which will could result in a very warm, muggy day depending
on cloud cover and speed of the approaching trough/surface front.
Current forecast maintains PM highs ranging from the low/mid 70s
(terrain) to mid/upper 80s (valleys). With dewpoints climbing into
mid to upper 60s ahead of the front areawide, this will allow peak
afternoon heat indices to climb into the low to mid-90s in some
valley areas, which is near heat advisory criteria.

In addition to the very warm temperatures, shower and storm chances
will also be on the increase as the approaching trough/surface front
interact with the warm & humid air mass that will be in place. There
is potential that storms could become severe, though it will be
heavily dependent on frontal timing and if they can take advantage
of peak heating during the early to mid afternoon. Please continue
to monitor the latest forecasts as details on this become more clear.

The surface front will pass through the region Friday with weak
surface high pressure in tow, bringing in a cooler air mass and less
humidity. Despite the high, chances of diurnally driven PM showers
(20-40%) are expected with the upper level trough lingering across
the region through the day.

Heading into the weekend, additional chances of showers are expected
Saturday with another shortwave crossing the region. We will dry out
for Sunday, though strengthening return flow will allow above normal
temperatures to quickly return to the region in time for the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Patchy fog and low ceilings affecting mainly
KGFL/KPSF will burn off within the next 1-2 hours, with VFR
conditions expected areawide through mid-morning. As we head
through the day, low MVFR/IFR stratus will begin to gradually
spread north across the region as moisture increases in the low
levels with southerly flow. These conditions will linger through
the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be calm to
south/southeast at 5 KT or less early this morning, with
southeast winds 5-10 KT in the late morning through the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Speck