775
FXUS61 KALY 280550
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
150 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Wind advisory has been allowed to expire with winds gradually
diminishing with the Nor`easter weakening in intensity. No other
significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A Nor`easter will continue to bring periods of rain to the
region through Monday before departing out to sea.

2) Drier weather returns Tuesday through Thursday with
temperatures rising to near and above normal levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

A nor`easter is currently centered across southern New Jersey
and will continue to sit and spin near the mid-Atlantic coast
though tonight. This storm has also begun its weakening stage
with its central pressure rising to near 1000 hPa based on the
latest RAP analysis. A band of rain continues to slowly lift
northward and westward into areas north of I-90 with a well
pronounced dry slot bringing a brief dry period to areas mainly
south of I-90. This dry slot will get cut off later this
afternoon into tonight as another moisture plume and band of
rain rotates around the primary low and reaches the area
tonight and continues through much of tomorrow. So, expect
periods of rain to continue through Monday for much of the
region. The low will begin to track northeastward and out to
sea by Monday night with precipitation ending across the region.
Additional rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches are expected
for many areas through tomorrow with up to 2 inches in the
eastern Catskills. With the continued long duration of this
event plus some dry periods and hourly rainfall rates mainly
0.25 inches or less, no hydrological issues are expected.

With the weakening of the storm itself, the strongest winds from
this storm have ended. The wind advisory that was in effect for
portions of the mid-Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, Litchfield
County and Berkshire County was allowed to expire at noon. Wind
gusts up to around 30 mph are expected through this afternoon
before diminishing further tonight and through tomorrow. By
tomorrow, wind gusts will only be around 20 mph.

The persistent clouds and occasional rain will keep high
temperatures below normal in the mid-50s to lower 60s through
tomorrow. Partial clearing by Monday night along with light to
calm winds should allow for some fog formation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure build across the
region on Tuesday and remains into Thursday with a period of
drier weather. Temperatures will slowly rebound back to near
normal levels on Wednesday and above normal levels on Thursday.
The next chance for rain showers looks to be on Friday as a cold
front approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06z Tuesday...Our Nor`easter centered off the NJ coast has
weakened considerably over the last 24 hours. It will lift
northward late tonight into Monday resulting in additional
periods of rain that will degrade flying conditions for all
terminals. Rain showers currently at POU will transition into
steadier periods by 07 - 10 UTC before the rain reaches PSF by
around 12 UTC. There is medium confidence that this rain will
support IFR vis/cigs at both sites through mid to late afternoon
given areal coverage and steady intensity of rain. Steady rain
holds off until 15-16 UTC for ALB/GFL with MVRF cigs/vis
eventually degrading to IFR at ALB by 19 UTC. Less confidence in
IFR conditions developing at GFL so sided with a TEMPO group as
the rain intensity may fluctuate. Rain weakens and gradually
decreases in coverage by 21 - 03 UTC from southwest to northeast
so slowly show improving conditions at POU and GFL. Maintained
MVFR and IFR cigs at ALB and PSF, respectively, where low-level
moisture looks to stay trapped until near/shortly after 06 UTC.

Winds will be northerly around 6-8 kt with occasional gusts up
to 18 - 22kts at KPSF through the afternoon. Northerly winds at
all terminals continue to weaken this evening falling near or
under 5kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...FG.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. Patchy FG.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...31