285
FXUS61 KALY 071045
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
645 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Tranquil weather with near to slightly below normal
temperatures expected through Tuesday.

2) Chances for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
increase Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday, but severe
weather and/or flooding is not likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes early this
morning, will track east into NY State today. This will provide
continue cool mornings and seasonably warm daytime temperatures
today through Tuesday. Patchy fog will likely occur in typical
favored river/sheltered valleys into early this morning and
again tonight. A short-wave trough aloft and weak cold front
will move across New England on Tue bringing some extra clouds,
however high pressure will become re-established by late Tue.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a multi-day stretch of dry weather, unsettled conditions
are expected Wed into early Thu as a progressive upper level
trough and associated frontal system move across the region.
Initially on Wed, showers will be mainly confined to areas
north/west of Albany associated with the system`s warm front,
with showers spreading south/east across the rest of the area
Wed night into early Thu as the system`s cold front sweeps
through the area. Will only mention slight chance of thunder due
to limited instability. Deep layer moisture does increase, with
PWAT anomalies forecast to rise to +1 to +2 STDEV, so most
areas should see at least some rainfall although flooding is not
anticipated due to lack of convection and progressive movement
of the system. It will turn humid before a drier air mass starts
to build back in behind the cold front on Thu. It will also
turn breezy during this time, first with southerly winds on Wed,
then westerly winds behind the cold front on Thu with
occasional gusts of 20-30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday...High pressure will bring dry conditions
and mainly clear skies through much of the 24 hour TAF period.
Any lingering fog at KGFL should dissipate by 13z, Then VFR
conditions will prevail the rest of the day. There could be
some fog at KGFL again tonight, but confidence is lower as
increasing high/mid level clouds may inhibit fog somewhat. Winds
today will become north-northwest and increase to 7-10 kt with
gusts around 15 kt by late morning. Winds will decrease to less
than 5 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07