905
FXUS61 KALY 120124
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
924 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.UPDATE...
As of 924 pm EDT...Clouds have increased quicker across the
Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital Region and southern VT in advance
of the inverted sfc trough associated with the developing
coastal low near the Carolinas, and a northern stream short-wave
trough over western NY and PA. Also, some light showers have
reached the Capital Region and Berkshires. We increased PoPs
into the slight chance range up the Capital Region. The 00Z KALY
sounding shows an increase of the low-level moisture with
clouds bases around 5 kft and a PWAT increase to 0.72". A
retooling of the PoPs was done based on the radar trends and the
latest 3-km HRRR and NAMnest.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds increase overnight ahead of a coastal low with a
few showers south of Interstate 90. The coastal low heads up the
Atlantic Coast tomorrow, where high confidence continues for
locations south and east of Albany for rain to begin Sunday
afternoon. Dry conditions return Tuesday through the end of
the work week with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message:

 -Confidence continues to increase in beneficial rainfall to
  return tomorrow into Monday.

Discussion:
Clouds continue to increase into tonight with an upper level
trough approaching from the west and a surface low pressure
system from the south. This coastal low is supported by latest
ensemble forecast model guidance to merge with the upper level
trough and bring breezy winds and rain to eastern New York and
western New England tomorrow afternoon through Monday night.
Wind gusts tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours are
forecasted to range between 15 and 25 mph. A few locations in
the Litchfield Hills could gust over 25 mph as the low pressure
system continues to move northeast over the Atlantic Coast. One
forecast note that continues to be uncertain is exact rainfall
amounts with this system. The current forecast supports
widespread rainfall amounts over 0.25 inches. For locations
south and east of Albany, rainfall amounts continue to support
for over 0.5 inches. Terrain influence over the southeast
Catskills, Mid- Hudson Valley, Litchfield Hills and southern
Vermont support for over 1 inch of rainfall in the 48 hour
period through Tuesday morning. Latest National Blend of Model
data and ensemble forecast model guidances have trended for the
higher terrain locations in the eastern Catskills for over 2
inches of rainfall in 48 hours from tomorrow afternoon through
Tuesday morning. The period of steadiest rainfall is overnight
Sunday into Monday morning. The primary impact is that this
rainfall could be beneficial for locations that have been seeing
very dry conditions and there are no flooding concerns.
Temperatures are going to only have a minimal difference
overnight into the day tonight through Monday as the clouds help
the surface keep warm with air temperatures ranging in the 40s
tonight and highs in the 50s and low 60s tomorrow and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The coastal low heads east Monday night with dry conditions
returning for the extended period. Very low chances for Tuesday
evening with an upper level shortwave, but ensemble forecast
model guidances continue to support the most likely scenario of
dry conditions persisting. We remain seasonal with high
temperatures in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z/Mon...VFR conditions begin the TAF cycle at
KALB/KGFL with very low VFR/high MVFR cigs at KPOU/KPSF. The
initial surge of moisture with the inverted sfc trough to the
developing coastal low is impacting the TAF sites south of KALB
tonight, but the conditions may return to VFR shortly before or
just after midnight. MVFR stratus with the onshore flow begins
to develop again at KPSF/KPOU between 09Z-12Z/Sun in the 1.5-3
kft AGL range with mid and high clouds further north to
KALB/KGFL. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower in the late
morning into the early to mid pm with light rain developing at
KPOU-KPSF between 15-19Z/Sun with MVFR cigs/vsbys. Some IFR cigs
may occur towards the end of the TAF cycle at KPSF towards
22Z/Sun. The light rain expands northward towards KALB after
21Z/Sun with MVFR conditions. KGFL may stay VFR until the end
of this TAF cycle.

The winds will be light or vary from the southeast to northeast
at 7 KT or less tonight. They will pick up from the
north/northeast 5-10 KT towards 12Z/Sun. The north/northeast
winds will increase to 8-15 KT in the late morning into the
afternoon with some gusts 20-25 KT near KPOU/KPSF. LLWS may
become an issue at KPSF after 19Z/Sun, as the 2 kft AGL winds
increase to 40 KT from the east/northeast and the sfc winds are
10 KT or less.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Columbus Day: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...RA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Special Weather Statement for Bennington and Windham counties
Sunday 8 AM to 2 PM. Relative humidity values are as low as 60
percent. Wind gusts range between 20 and 30 mph. High
temperatures range in the 50s. Rain shower activity increases
after noon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A coastal low will track close to the the NJ and Long Island
Coast Sunday through Monday. Minor tidal flooding may occur in
the Mid-Hudson Valley from Kingston south to Poughkeepsie late
Sunday through Monday. The latest NERFC forecast for the Hudson
River near Poughkeepsie is projecting minor tidal flooding
Sunday afternoon and early evening and again on Monday afternoon
and early evening.

Monitor the latest river forecasts on the NWPS page at
https:/water.noaa.gov/area/ALY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...05
HYDROLOGY...05/37