487
FXUS61 KALY 141051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
651 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will feature more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, especially from around the Capital District
south and eastwards. Drier weather is expected tomorrow and
Wednesday, but it will be hot and turning more humid by
Wednesday. The next chance for more showers and storms comes
Thursday and Friday ahead of a cold front that should bring
cooler and drier weather to start next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Flood Watch issued for areas south and east of the Capital
  District today, where isolated to scattered flash flooding is
  expected.

- Heat index values are expected to approach advisory criteria
  (95F) Tuesday for most valley areas.

Discussion:
.Update...As of 6:50 AM EDT...PoPs were updated this morning to
reflect remnant convective activity tracking through the Capital
District, Catskills, and Mid Hudson Valley. Heavy rain does not
look likely with this activity. This convection should
diminish/move off to the east within the next few hours, and
then additional convection will redevelop around or south and
east of the Capital District this afternoon. Otherwise,
temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s with plenty of low
stratus and some patchy fog around this morning. Please see
below for more details...

.Previous...Occluded sfc low is now located over Hudson Bay,
while looking aloft upper ridging is departing into the North
Atlantic and broad troughing from upstream is track eastwards. A
weak cold frontal boundary associated with the sfc low remains
located back to our west near the Great Lakes. Today, the
slow-moving cold frontal boundary continues to slide eastwards
into our region. At the same time, an upper impulse embedded
within the broader upper trough will arrive from the west this
afternoon, as will diffluent upper flow and the right entrance
of a weak jet streak tracking north of the region. These
features will all help provide forcing for ascent. Given that we
remain in a very moist and unstable airmass, additional
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
today, especially from the Capital District south and east.
There remains some uncertainty how far north and west convection
will occur today, especially with the ongoing nighttime
convection to our west that has made it further south and east
than most CAMs were suggesting. The biggest threat with any
storms today will be heavy rain leading to flash flooding. More
details can be found in the hydro section below, but will
mention here that we did consider including Schoharie, Albany,
and Rensselaer Counties in the FFA, but ultimately decided not
to per collaboration with WFO BGM and based on current
convective trends on radar. Timing for showers and storms looks
to be from noon through this evening.

While heavy rain is the primary hazard, SPC has continued the
marginal risk for severe storms as well. SBCAPEs should climb to
1500-2000 J/kg per the latest HREF. Shear looks weak and DCAPES
aren`t all that impressive, but with a very moist airmass in
place the environment looks favorable for precip loading leading
to a few wet microbursts from the Capital District south and
east this afternoon. Given high freezing levels and lack of
shear, wind will be the main severe threat this afternoon.

Convection slowly diminishes this evening after sunset with
decreasing instability, but may linger into tonight near the
I-84 corridor closer to the frontal boundary. A very slightly
cooler/drier airmass will be overhead tonight, so temps and dew
points will end up a couple degrees below those from the last
few nights. Patchy fog will be possible once again, especially
for areas that see rain today.

Tuesday, high pressure builds in from the west as broad ridging
amplifies aloft. The main story will be increasing temperatures
beneath the building ridge. Highs look to be in the upper 80s to
low 90s for many valley areas. There will be a lot of mid-level
dry air around that can be mixed down, so while dew points will
be elevated they will not be as high as the last few days.
Accordingly, heat indices will likely be in the low to mid 90s.
Heat advisories may be needed for some valley areas Tuesday, but
it looks very borderline at this point. With large-scale
subsidence, most of the region should be dry. The exception is
for a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm near the I-84
corridor, where the frontal boundary will remain stalled. With
the surface high still overhead Tuesday night, we should see
temperatures drop to near the respective dew points, with low to
mid 60s in the high terrain and mid 60s to around 70 for the
valleys. Patchy fog will be possible once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Message:

- Heat Index values or "feels-Like" temperatures will likely
  reach the mid 90s to around 100 in the valley areas for the
  middle to end of this week.

- Watching Thursday - Friday for increased chances for
  thunderstorms and potential severe weather.

Discussion:

Wednesday, the upper ridge and warmest airmass aloft will be
over our region. 850 temps reach +18 to +20C, which will
translate to daytime highs in the low to possibly mid 90s for
valley areas. The surface high slides off to our east, so we get
into more of a southerly flow regime, which will result in dew
points rising as well. Heat advisories will likely be needed for
many valley areas Wednesday. While most of the day should remain
dry with it being so warm aloft under the ridge, a few afternoon
showers or thunderstorms could develop given the soupy airmass.
The better chance will be Wednesday evening or night when an
upper impulse is expected to approach from the west and may
provide some forcing for ascent for a few more showers and
storms. Wednesday night will be very warm and muggy with lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

We are beginning to see more clarity into the setup for the end
of the week, although details are still uncertain at this lead
time. Thursday looks to remain hot and quite humid across the
region, and additional heat advisories may be needed again.
At this time, guidance is starting to come into better agreement
in a surface low tracking north of our region Thursday, with a
pre-frontal trough potentially providing forcing for the
development of showers and thunderstorms across eastern NY into
western New England. It then looks like the actual cold front
will track through our region Friday, with potentially another
round of showers and storms. While the threat for severe weather
and heavy rain will ultimately depend on how the timing of
these features coincides with peak diurnal heating, the airmass
will be quite moist and unstable ahead of this cold front. Shear
also looks to increase with strengthening westerly flow aloft,
so this certainly bears watching over the next several days.
There is still good agreement for high pressure to bring drier,
cooler, and less humid weather behind this front for next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 12z Tuesday, spotty showers will remain possible at
KALB, KPSF and KPOU through around 13Z/Mon. Otherwise, low
clouds may linger until 14Z-16Z/Mon with MVFR Cigs. Mainly VFR
conditions are then expected this afternoon outside of
scattered showers/thunderstorms, where areas of brief MVFR/IFR
Vsbys will be possible. Best chances for showers/thunderstorms
looks to be 17Z-24Z/Mon, with earlier timing at KGFL and KALB.
Some showers/thunderstorms may linger until 02Z/Tue at
KPOU/KPSF. Areas of MVFR/IFR Cigs/Vsbys may develop after
02Z/Tue in areas which receive prior heavy rainfall.

South to southeast winds 5-10 KT are expected through today,
becoming light/variable after sunset. Winds will be stronger
and variable in direction in/near any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Coverage of rain and thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours
increases this afternoon, mainly from the Capital District
south and east. WPC has maintained their slight risk ERO for
this area, and we have issued a flood watch for portions of the
Mid Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills, Taconics, and western
CT/MA from noon through 06z tonight. Very deep warm clouds,
PWATs potentially in excess of 2" (which is 2-3 standard
deviations above normal) will promote the potential for very
heavy rainfall rates in excess of 2" per hour with any
afternoon showers and storms. Mid-level flow looks relative
slow, and the flow will be parallel to the approaching frontal
boundary so we may have some backbuilding and/or training of
convection this afternoon. The 00z HREF has a 10% chance for 3"
of rain in 3hrs for areas south and east of the Capital
District, which is often a good signal for an elevated flash
flood threat. Relatively dry conditions over the last 3 days may
help mitigate the flash flood threat somewhat. Nevertheless,
the threat will be greatest for the more urban areas, as well as
poor-drainage and low- lying areas.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for
     NYZ058>061-063>066.
MA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through late tonight for
     MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...Main/Speciale