Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
387
FNUS71 KALY 151020
FWSALY
Spot Forecast for Stop 2 South Unit...NPS
National Weather Service Albany NY
620 AM EDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Today starts off dry with dry weather, although RH values will be above 80%
due to last night`s rain. Temperatures this morning rise through the 50s to
a high of around 60 by late morning or early afternoon with RH values dropping
into the 40-50% range. Then, this afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected with a strong cold frontal passage. Winds will be at 5-10 kt through
the first part of the morning, but pick up to around 10 kt later this morning
ahead of the cold front. Behind the front, winds switch to the west at around
15 kt with gusts as high as 35 kt, especially during the afternoon. Additional
strong wind gusts to 35-40 kt will be possible in and around and afternoon showers
or thunderstorms, and these showers or storms could lead to small-scale variations
and shifts in wind direction as well depending on where storms track in relation
to the burn site.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of
rain showers in the afternoon. Slight chance of
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Dewpoint............45 decreasing to 35.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......South winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the west 10
to 18 mph with gusts to around 38 mph in the
late morning and early afternoon, then
increasing to 18 to 20 mph with gusts to around
39 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 17 mph increasing to west 21 to
28 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (88400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (75600
knot-ft) in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42 37 32 36 40 44 53 62 70 73 75 78
Weather cov..... SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10 0 0 10 10 10 20 40 50 50 50 50
Temp............46 47 51 55 58 60 61 59 58 57 55 54
Dewpoint........44 44 45 46 44 41 40 38 38 37 36 35
RH..............93 89 80 72 59 49 46 45 47 47 49 48
20 FT wind dir..S S S SW SW W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 7 8 9 10 13 15 17 18 20 18 18
20 FT wind gust.10 12 14 16 18 22 28 33 38 39 39 37
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.6 4.9 5.3 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.1 3.6
Transp wind dir.S SW SW SW SW W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.9 10 12 14 17 21 24 26 28 28 26 24
LVORI...........4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Vrate kt-ft/1K..0 0 7 31 61 88 105 114 114 107 93 76
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD GD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
showers in the evening, then slight chance of
rain showers and snow showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........68 percent.
Dewpoint............32 decreasing to 28 late in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......West winds 14 to 17 mph with gusts to around 35
mph.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (59400 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to fair (21800 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............2.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76 73 71 72 71 70 71 71 72 68 63 59
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RS RW RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40 30 30 20 20 20 20 10 10 10 20 20
Temp............52 49 47 45 43 42 41 39 38 38 37 37
Dewpoint........34 33 32 32 30 29 28 28 28 28 27 27
RH..............50 54 56 60 60 60 59 64 67 67 67 67
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..17 16 15 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 14 14
20 FT wind gust.35 32 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29
Mix hgt (kft)...2.7 1.8 1.3 1.6 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.22 21 20 21 23 24 23 22 21 20 20 20
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..54 33 22 30 47 59 56 47 37 30 25 25
Ventrate Cat....FR PR PR PR FR FR FR FR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the morning, then slight
chance of snow showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 45.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Dewpoint............25.
Wind (20 ft)........
Slope/valley.......West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 36
mph.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 21 to 29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (30800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (120100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........64 68 73 75 78 80 82 83 85 86 87 88
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW SW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
Temp............36 36 38 39 41 43 44 44 44 44 45 45
Dewpoint........27 26 26 26 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 25
RH..............69 67 62 59 52 49 46 45 45 44 44 45
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..15 15 16 17 17 18 20 20 20 20 20 18
20 FT wind gust.29 29 30 31 32 33 35 36 36 36 35 33
Mix hgt (kft)...1.7 2.2 2.8 3.4 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.4
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.21 22 23 24 24 25 26 28 29 29 29 28
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Vrate kt-ft/1K..31 41 55 71 88 102 112 117 119 120 117 106
Ventrate Cat....PR FR FR GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD VGD
$$
Forecaster...Main
Requested by...T Parker Schuerman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2510347.0/ALY
.DELDT 04/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mboss@nps.gov,mgrismer@nps.gov,tschuerman@nps.gov