078
FXUS64 KAMA 180513
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1113 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Above average temperatures persist through Wednesday, with highs
  returning to near average Thursday onward.

- Rain chances increase Wednesday through Friday, with low
  probabilities for more beneficial rainfall totals across the
  central to eastern Panhandles.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Today`s weather will be inconsequential as we sit in between upper
level systems. Today will be quite dry with significantly lighter
winds than yesterday, partly cloudy skies, and highs in the 60s and
70s. Wednesday will be a touch warmer as a closed low passes over
the Sonoran Desert, before it takes a westward jog towards the
Plains. Southwest flow ahead of this disturbance will aid moisture
return and increase PWAT values to 0.5-0.8", possibly exceeding 1.0"
across the east which would reach or exceed climatological maximum
values for mid November. These environmental parameters set the
stage for what will likely be a wetter Wed night through Thursday,
although we wouldn`t be befuddled to see spotty showers/weak storms
starting as early as tomorrow afternoon across the far SE TX
Panhandle where moisture and lift will initially be most
prevalent. Overnight Wed into Thu morning is when we should see
better rain chances beginning to spread north and westward over
the region, pending the timing of the low. Model data supports
20-50% rain chances across the southern half of the forecast area
during this time frame.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Thursday remains the focal point of our precipitation opportunities,
as waves of energy within the flow are progged to initiate scattered
or perhaps even widespread showers across the Panhandles. POPs have
begun increasing in tandem with model confidence, based on a more
favorable track and timing progression of the low. Probabilities for
any measurable rain throughout the day Thursday range from 50-80%,
but the higher end chances are across central and eastern
counties. Friday finds the system finally passing over the region,
drawing some wrap around moisture on its northern flank which
could perpetuate additional 20-30% shower chances for the
northern Panhandles. By the end of the event, locations further
west have a decent shot to see a couple tenths of an inch of
rainfall (lower confidence due to potential dry air intrusion),
but the central to eastern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles have 20-50% probabilities to exceed 1" of rain,
especially with more time to see multiple rounds of showers and
storms. There`s still time for aspects of this system`s evolution
to impact these forecast amounts, but for now, models are
converging on a wetter outcome for much of the region.

Temperatures will begin to settle in typical fall ranges later this
week into next, topping out in the 50s and 60s, behind a weak cold
front arriving Friday. Moisture will briefly take a vacation from
our neck of the woods Saturday, but long range models have ramped up
suggestions that we may be keeping an active stretch of weather
going early next week. Several discrepancies exist between models
regarding the track and timing of this hypothetical second system,
but most data sets indicate it may pan out similarly to this week`s
disturbance. Rain chances are lower for now, but still rather
promising next Sun-Mon.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated at all sites for the duration of
the 06z TAF period. Winds are shifting to northerly behind a weak
front, but will become more light and variable through the end of
the period.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38